Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Major breakouts for UK's FTSE 100, STOXX Europe 50, and Germany's DAX (among others) continue to support our belief that non-U.S. equities are likely to outperform in the months/years ahead.</li>
<li>We continue to recommend adding exposure to China/Hong Kong, and to add exposure/remain overweight Europe and the UK; these remain our favorite areas to invest in the year ahead.</li>
<li>The UK/Europe and Hong Kong/China make up the majority of today's individual stock buy recommendations. Industrials, Materials, and Consumer Discretionary Sectors are all bullish and highlighted today -- add exposure.</li>
</ul>


Major breakouts for UK's FTSE 100, STOXX Europe 50, and Germany's DAX (among others) continue to support our belief that non-U.S. equities are likely to outperform in the months/years ahead.
We continue to recommend adding exposure to China/Hong Kong, and to add exposure/remain overweight Europe and the UK; these remain our favorite areas to invest in the year ahead.
The UK/Europe and Hong Kong/China make up the majority of today's individual stock buy recommendations. Industrials, Materials, and Consumer Discretionary Sectors are all bullish and highlighted today -- add exposure.


UK's FTSE 100, STOXX Europe 50 Breaking Out; Non-U.S. Outperformance to Continue, Buys in Cyclicals

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of January 13th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for China Mobile, Simcere Pharmaceutical, Tencent, Geely Automobile.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of January 13th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for China Mobile, Simcere Pharmaceutical, Tencent, Geely Automobile.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jan 13th): Tencent Profit Taking

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jan 6th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Tencent, Baba, Cm Bank, Bidu, Meituan, HSBC, Differ Gp Auto, Li Auto-W.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jan 6th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short changes in Tencent, Baba, Cm Bank, Bidu, Meituan, HSBC, Differ Gp Auto, Li Auto-W.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Tencent, Baba, CMB, Bidu, Meituan, HSBC, Differ, Li Auto

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Maintain BUY and raise our TP to HK$ 128.94, based on 31x FY23E P/E (based on 1 s.d. above the 5-year average, up from 25x).</li><li>We still believe the sector can continue to re-rate as turnaround is likely in FY23E, even though the valuation is not too cheap and base was high in 1Q22.</li><li>Current valuation of 26x FY23E P/E is not too demanding, vs 5-year average of 26x and int’l peers’ average of 20x.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Maintain BUY and raise our TP to HK$ 128.94, based on 31x FY23E P/E (based on 1 s.d. above the 5-year average, up from 25x).We still believe the sector can continue to re-rate as turnaround is likely in FY23E, even though the valuation is not too cheap and base was high in 1Q22.Current valuation of 26x FY23E P/E is not too demanding, vs 5-year average of 26x and int’l peers’ average of 20x.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Anta Sports (2020 HK) – Turnaround is in sight in 2Q23E

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>With the recent rally in the equity markets in Hong Kong and China, we think the asset play investment thesis for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-dongxiang-group-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1068:1" rel="noopener">China Dongxiang Group Co (3818 HK)</a> has revived.  </li>
<li>We estimate its investment portfolio value may have increased by HK$2bn since end-Sep, yet market capitalisation only rose HK$500m, suggesting still significant 77% discount. </li>
<li>Encouraging recent developments at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a> and Ant Financial, which both are its holdings, are positive. The reduction is losses for sportswear business is an added driver. </li>
</ul>


With the recent rally in the equity markets in Hong Kong and China, we think the asset play investment thesis for China Dongxiang Group Co (3818 HK) has revived.  
We estimate its investment portfolio value may have increased by HK$2bn since end-Sep, yet market capitalisation only rose HK$500m, suggesting still significant 77% discount. 
Encouraging recent developments at Alibaba Group (9988 HK) and Ant Financial, which both are its holdings, are positive. The reduction is losses for sportswear business is an added driver. 


China Dongxiang (3818 HK): Extremely Deep Discount to Cash and Investments

China

ANTA Sports Products Limited designs, develops, manufactures, and markets sportswear, including sports footwear and apparel for professionals and the general public.

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Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)

UK's FTSE 100, STOXX Europe 50 Breaking Out; Non-U.S. Outperformance to Continue, Buys in Cyclicals

Recent major breakouts for the FTSE 100, STOXX Europe 50, and Germany's DAX (among others) continue to support our belief that non-U.S. equities...

Vermilion Research

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jan 13th): Tencent Profit Taking

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for China Mobile, Simcere Pharmaceutical, Tencent, Geely...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Short Interest Weekly: Tencent, Baba, CMB, Bidu, Meituan, HSBC, Differ, Li Auto

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jan 6th and highlight short interest changes in Tencent, Baba, CMB, Bidu,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Anta Sports (2020 HK) – Turnaround is in sight in 2Q23E

Maintain BUY and raise our TP to HK$ 128.94, based on 31x FY23E P/E (based on 1 s.d. above the 5-year average, up from 25x).

CMB International

China Dongxiang (3818 HK): Extremely Deep Discount to Cash and Investments

Market rallies may have raised CNDX's cash and investment portfolio value by HK$2bn since end-Sep, but its market cap has only increased HK$500m,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

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