IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

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Global Equity Research Ltd

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Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1138:1" rel="noopener">OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU)</a> has received a revised non-binding indicative offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)</a> at A$28.25 per share, a 13.0% premium to the previously rejected offer.</li>
<li>The Board has granted four weeks of due diligence and intends to recommend a binding offer at A$28.25 per share, in the absence of a superior proposal.</li>
<li>While the offer is below the rumoured Board's target of a A$30 offer, it is still attractive. At the last close, the gross spread to the offer is 3.3%.</li>
</ul>



OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU) has received a revised non-binding indicative offer from BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU) at A$28.25 per share, a 13.0% premium to the previously rejected offer.
The Board has granted four weeks of due diligence and intends to recommend a binding offer at A$28.25 per share, in the absence of a superior proposal.
While the offer is below the rumoured Board's target of a A$30 offer, it is still attractive. At the last close, the gross spread to the offer is 3.3%.


OZ Minerals (OZL AU)’s A$28.25 Non-Binding Offer from BHP

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>In August, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)</a> launched a $25/share bid - a price it saw as attractive and what target <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1138:1" rel="noopener">OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU)</a> saw as opportunistic. </li>
<li>Copper had fallen, and peer stock prices had fallen too. Since then, copper has rebounded and peers have too so what was a 25-30% premium no longer exists.</li>
<li>This means the price of OZL should "enjoy" different dynamics going forward.</li>
</ul>


In August, BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU) launched a $25/share bid - a price it saw as attractive and what target OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU) saw as opportunistic. 
Copper had fallen, and peer stock prices had fallen too. Since then, copper has rebounded and peers have too so what was a 25-30% premium no longer exists.
This means the price of OZL should "enjoy" different dynamics going forward.


OZ Minerals (OZL) - Copper and Comps Have Caught Up

<ul>
<li>Copper is widely recognised to be in somewhat short supply, and EV/electrification would increase demand going forward (though slower Chinese homebuilding would soften it).</li>
<li>A number of developments suggest a further squeeze in prices could be near and copper price strength along with AUD weakness makes an AUD-denominated OZL Takeover Price easier to raise.</li>
<li>Short-Term positioning and longer-term supply constraints are currently battling for near-term import, but medium-term, there's no escaping the imbalance. Looks like a buy now.</li>
</ul>


Copper is widely recognised to be in somewhat short supply, and EV/electrification would increase demand going forward (though slower Chinese homebuilding would soften it).
A number of developments suggest a further squeeze in prices could be near and copper price strength along with AUD weakness makes an AUD-denominated OZL Takeover Price easier to raise.
Short-Term positioning and longer-term supply constraints are currently battling for near-term import, but medium-term, there's no escaping the imbalance. Looks like a buy now.


OZ Minerals - Circumstances May Merit a Revised Tilt

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-17/oz-minerals-said-to-hold-out-for-a-10-billion-in-potential-sale?leadSource=uverify%20wall" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bloomberg reported</a> that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)</a> has been considering raising its bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1138:1" rel="noopener">OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU)</a>. OZ is pushing BHP to increase its offer to A$30. </li>
<li>The OZ Board has a strong justification for a higher offer as BHP’s acquisition of OZ would tick the boxes of future-facing commodities and potential operational synergies.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)</a> recently increased its bid to minority shareholders of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/turquoise-hill-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25405:1" rel="noopener">Turquoise Hill Resources (TRQ CN)</a>. This increases the probability that BHP will return with a sweetened offer.</li>
</ul>



Bloomberg reported that BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU) has been considering raising its bid for OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU). OZ is pushing BHP to increase its offer to A$30. 
The OZ Board has a strong justification for a higher offer as BHP’s acquisition of OZ would tick the boxes of future-facing commodities and potential operational synergies.

Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) recently increased its bid to minority shareholders of Turquoise Hill Resources (TRQ CN). This increases the probability that BHP will return with a sweetened offer.


OZ Minerals Could Get an Improved Offer from BHP

United Kingdom

Antofagasta plc is a Chilean multinational conglomerate primarily focused on copper mining, with operations concentrated in Chile. The company operates four copper mines, producing copper cathodes and concentrates, along with gold, silver, and molybdenum as by-products. Additionally, it has a transport division providing rail and road cargo services for mining customers in northern Chile. Antofagasta was incorporated in London in 1888 and is headquartered in London, England.

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Antofagasta (ANTO LN)

OZ Minerals (OZL AU)’s A$28.25 Non-Binding Offer from BHP

While the offer is below the rumoured Board's target of a A$30 offer, it is still attractive. At the last close, the gross spread to the offer is...

Arun George

OZ Minerals (OZL) - Copper and Comps Have Caught Up

BHP bid for OZL at a premium to market, to peer and copper-implied fair. Since then, copper and peers have rebounded. OZL is no longer trading with...

Travis Lundy

OZ Minerals - Circumstances May Merit a Revised Tilt

OZL has dipped as both BHP and OZL appear to be trying to wait each other out on BHP's A$25/shr offer. Chile presents some problems, global stocks...

Travis Lundy

OZ Minerals Could Get an Improved Offer from BHP

Bloomberg reported that BHP has been considering raising its bid. The OZ Board has a strong justification for a higher offer. The shares are...

Arun George

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