Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

Commonwealth Bank of Australia / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
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Highlights: Currently 22 pair trade opportunities persist across six markets and nine sectors.
</li>
<li>
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

Highlights: Currently 22 pair trade opportunities persist across six markets and nine sectors.


Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (15 June 2026)

<ul>
<li>
Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
<li>
Highlights: In Australia, currently nine pair trade opportunities persist across six sectors.</li>
<li>
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

Highlights: In Australia, currently nine pair trade opportunities persist across six sectors.

Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


Relative Value Opportunities in Australia (15 June 2026)

National Australia Bank / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Context: The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anz-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40898:1" rel="noopener">ANZ (ANZ AU)</a> vs. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/national-australia-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15:1" rel="noopener">National Australia Bank (NAB AU)</a> price ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.</li>
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Highlight: Going long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/national-australia-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15:1" rel="noopener">National Australia Bank (NAB AU)</a> and short <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anz-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40898:1" rel="noopener">ANZ (ANZ AU)</a> targets a 6% return.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.</li>
</ul>



Context: The ANZ (ANZ AU) vs. National Australia Bank (NAB AU) price ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.

Highlight: Going long National Australia Bank (NAB AU) and short ANZ (ANZ AU) targets a 6% return.

Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.


NAB (NAB AU) Vs ANZ (ANZ AU): Big Four Divergence Strikes Again

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

<ul><li>Steel & Tube (STU) announced the extension of its banking arrangements and released a 2H26 trading update.</li><li>The qualitative trading comments were broadly in line with the assumptions behind our forecasts (as revised in late April 2026); the Middle East war derailed momentum, further delaying the recovery in earnings.</li><li>Whilst STU’s market cap plus bank debt is currently in line with the book value of its working capital (a potential value floor), we believe the share price is unlikely to move higher until either: (1) the balance sheet is addressed; and/or (2) there is evidence that earnings are on a more sustainable footing.</li></ul>

Steel & Tube (STU) announced the extension of its banking arrangements and released a 2H26 trading update.The qualitative trading comments were broadly in line with the assumptions behind our forecasts (as revised in late April 2026); the Middle East war derailed momentum, further delaying the recovery in earnings.Whilst STU’s market cap plus bank debt is currently in line with the book value of its working capital (a potential value floor), we believe the share price is unlikely to move higher until either: (1) the balance sheet is addressed; and/or (2) there is evidence that earnings are on a more sustainable footing.

Steel & Tube Holdings Steel Hanging In There

<ul><li>Steel &amp; Tube (STU) announced the extension of its banking arrangements and covenant amendments with ANZ for a further one-year term (now expiring September 2027) and released a 2H26 trading update.</li><li>STU expects conditions to remain variable for the remainder of 2026 (1H27) given ongoing Middle East issues, new US tariffs, and the upcoming NZ election.</li><li>We currently forecast a 2H26 EBIT loss of -NZ$6m and NZ$8m profit for FY27 which assumed a breakeven 1H27 as NZ activity improves.</li></ul>

Steel &amp; Tube (STU) announced the extension of its banking arrangements and covenant amendments with ANZ for a further one-year term (now expiring September 2027) and released a 2H26 trading update.STU expects conditions to remain variable for the remainder of 2026 (1H27) given ongoing Middle East issues, new US tariffs, and the upcoming NZ election.We currently forecast a 2H26 EBIT loss of -NZ$6m and NZ$8m profit for FY27 which assumed a breakeven 1H27 as NZ activity improves.

Steel And Tube (STU): Bank Refinancing And Trading Update

Australia

ANZ Group Holdings Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides banking and financial products and services to retail and business customers. ANZ Group Holdings offers loans, transaction and institutional banking services, deposits, and other financial products.

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ANZ Group Holdings (ANZ AU)

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (15 June 2026)

Discover 22 pair trade opportunities across six markets and nine sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

Relative Value Opportunities in Australia (15 June 2026)

Discover nine pair trade opportunities across six sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

NAB (NAB AU) Vs ANZ (ANZ AU): Big Four Divergence Strikes Again

Pair trade opportunity re-emerges as the spread between the two Australian banks climbs back above the 2 SD opening threshold. Essential for...

Gaudenz Schneider

Steel & Tube Holdings Steel Hanging In There

Steel & Tube (STU) announced the extension of its banking arrangements and released a 2H26 trading update. The qualitative trading comments...

Forsyth Barr

Steel And Tube (STU): Bank Refinancing And Trading Update

Steel & Tube (STU) announced the extension of its banking arrangements and covenant amendments with ANZ for a further one-year term (now...

Forsyth Barr

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (15 June 2026)

​Discover 22 pair trade opportunities across six markets and nine sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

Relative Value Opportunities in Australia (15 June 2026)

​Discover nine pair trade opportunities across six sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

NAB (NAB AU) Vs ANZ (ANZ AU): Big Four Divergence Strikes Again

Pair trade opportunity re-emerges as the spread between the two Australian banks climbs back above the 2 SD opening threshold. Essential for...

Gaudenz Schneider

Steel & Tube Holdings Steel Hanging In There

Steel & Tube (STU) announced the extension of its banking arrangements and released a 2H26 trading update. The qualitative trading comments...

Forsyth Barr

Steel And Tube (STU): Bank Refinancing And Trading Update

Steel & Tube (STU) announced the extension of its banking arrangements and covenant amendments with ANZ for a further one-year term (now...

Forsyth Barr

Discover 22 pair trade opportunities across six markets and nine sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Discover nine pair trade opportunities across six sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.