Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Newly released data on insolvencies in Australia suggests that bank credit metrics will come under pressure in current interim and possibly beyond</li>
<li>Construction insolvencies were highest and rose 25% YoY, accommodations and food services accelerated sharply rising 59% YoY, and next leading figure, also accelerated</li>
<li>CBA saw its NPL ratio rise from Dec 23 to Dec 24, and WBC released its 1Q25 to Dec 24 showing improving credit metrics. This may reverse. </li>
</ul>


Newly released data on insolvencies in Australia suggests that bank credit metrics will come under pressure in current interim and possibly beyond
Construction insolvencies were highest and rose 25% YoY, accommodations and food services accelerated sharply rising 59% YoY, and next leading figure, also accelerated
CBA saw its NPL ratio rise from Dec 23 to Dec 24, and WBC released its 1Q25 to Dec 24 showing improving credit metrics. This may reverse. 


Australia Banks - Insolvencies Data Published 17 March Suggests Far Worse Credit Metrics

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>At the upcoming AGM, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22114:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto PLC</a> shareholders will vote on the company commencing a review on the benefits vs costs of Unification.</li>
<li>Palliser Capital has been pushing for Unification while the Rio Tinto Board has recommended that shareholders vote against Resolution 21/24 citing tax costs among other reasons.</li>
<li>If the Unification completes, S&amp;P/ASX trackers will need to buy <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)</a> while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ftse-100-index-ukx" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22904:1" rel="noopener">UKX Index (UKX INDEX)</a> trackers will sell <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22114:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto PLC (RIO LN)</a>. Net positive.</li>
</ul>


At the upcoming AGM, Rio Tinto Ltd and Rio Tinto PLC shareholders will vote on the company commencing a review on the benefits vs costs of Unification.
Palliser Capital has been pushing for Unification while the Rio Tinto Board has recommended that shareholders vote against Resolution 21/24 citing tax costs among other reasons.
If the Unification completes, S&amp;P/ASX trackers will need to buy Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) while UKX Index (UKX INDEX) trackers will sell Rio Tinto PLC (RIO LN). Net positive.


Rio Tinto (RIO AU/RIO LN): Unification Index Flows

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guzman-y-gomez-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43656:1" rel="noopener">Guzman Y Gomez (GYG AU)</a> raised around US$221m in its Australian IPO. Its IPO linked partial lockup expiry is due soon.</li>
<li>GYG is a quick service restaurant business with more than 200 restaurants globally. It mainly focuses on fresh, made-to-order, Mexican-inspired food.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.</li>
</ul>



Guzman Y Gomez (GYG AU) raised around US$221m in its Australian IPO. Its IPO linked partial lockup expiry is due soon.
GYG is a quick service restaurant business with more than 200 restaurants globally. It mainly focuses on fresh, made-to-order, Mexican-inspired food.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.


Guzman IPO Lockup - Pop Done, Correction Ongoing, Now Time for the Lockup

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

National Australia Bank / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/national-australia-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15:1" rel="noopener">National Australia Bank (NAB AU)</a> is set to announce its First Quarter Trading Update on Wednesday 19 February 2025.</li>
<li>Traders can trade the event through 20 February 2025 listed options (monthly expiration). Strategies discussed reflect different expectations of market reactions, with risk implications.</li>
<li>Historically, NAB has experienced an average price move of 2.2% following profit announcements. Option markets anticipate a slightly larger move.</li>
</ul>



National Australia Bank (NAB AU) is set to announce its First Quarter Trading Update on Wednesday 19 February 2025.
Traders can trade the event through 20 February 2025 listed options (monthly expiration). Strategies discussed reflect different expectations of market reactions, with risk implications.
Historically, NAB has experienced an average price move of 2.2% following profit announcements. Option markets anticipate a slightly larger move.


EQD | National Australia Bank (NAB AU): Anticipated Price Swings on Q1 Trading Update on 19 Feb 2025

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/westpac-banking-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:444:1" rel="noopener">Westpac Banking (WBC AU)</a> is set to announce its 2025 First Quarter Trading Update on 17 February. </li>
<li>Options expiring 20 February can provide an indication of the size of the move expected on the day, as well as directional bias.</li>
<li>The options market expects a 2.1% to 2.6% move in either direction until 20 February, in-line with historic moves. Peers have so far performed positively on reporting days this month.</li>
</ul>



Westpac Banking (WBC AU) is set to announce its 2025 First Quarter Trading Update on 17 February. 
Options expiring 20 February can provide an indication of the size of the move expected on the day, as well as directional bias.
The options market expects a 2.1% to 2.6% move in either direction until 20 February, in-line with historic moves. Peers have so far performed positively on reporting days this month.


EQD | Westpac Banking (WBC AU) - Expected Move on Profit Announcement and Option Insights

Australia

ANZ Group Holdings Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides banking and financial products and services to retail and business customers. ANZ Group Holdings offers loans, transaction and institutional banking services, deposits, and other financial products.

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ANZ Group Holdings (ANZ AU)

Australia Banks - Insolvencies Data Published 17 March Suggests Far Worse Credit Metrics

Australia's newly released insolvencies data suggest a worsening of forward credit metrics for banks. This may come as a surprise to market, where...

Daniel Tabbush

Rio Tinto (RIO AU/RIO LN): Unification Index Flows

Palliser Capital is pushing for Unification of RIO AU/ RIO LN. We are still a long way away from possible completion. There will be big index flows...

Brian Freitas

Guzman IPO Lockup - Pop Done, Correction Ongoing, Now Time for the Lockup

Guzman Y Gomez (GYG AU) raised around US$221m in its Australian IPO. Its IPO linked partial lockup expiry is due soon, if they stock manages to...

Sumeet Singh

EQD | National Australia Bank (NAB AU): Anticipated Price Swings on Q1 Trading Update on 19 Feb 2025

National Australia Bank (NAB AU) to release First Quarter Trading Update on 19 Feb 2025. Traders can use listed options to strategize for...

Gaudenz Schneider

EQD | Westpac Banking (WBC AU) - Expected Move on Profit Announcement and Option Insights

Westpac Banking (WBC AU) to announce 2025 Q1 Trading Update on 17 Feb. Peers have seen positive performance on reporting days this month. Options...

Gaudenz Schneider

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Australia Banks - Insolvencies Data Published 17 March Suggests Far Worse Credit Metrics

Australia's newly released insolvencies data suggest a worsening of forward credit metrics for banks. This may come as a surprise to market, where...

Daniel Tabbush

Rio Tinto (RIO AU/RIO LN): Unification Index Flows

Palliser Capital is pushing for Unification of RIO AU/ RIO LN. We are still a long way away from possible completion. There will be big index flows...

Brian Freitas

Guzman IPO Lockup - Pop Done, Correction Ongoing, Now Time for the Lockup

Guzman Y Gomez (GYG AU) raised around US$221m in its Australian IPO. Its IPO linked partial lockup expiry is due soon, if they stock manages to...

Sumeet Singh

EQD | National Australia Bank (NAB AU): Anticipated Price Swings on Q1 Trading Update on 19 Feb 2025

​National Australia Bank (NAB AU) to release First Quarter Trading Update on 19 Feb 2025. Traders can use listed options to strategize for...

Gaudenz Schneider

EQD | Westpac Banking (WBC AU) - Expected Move on Profit Announcement and Option Insights

​Westpac Banking (WBC AU) to announce 2025 Q1 Trading Update on 17 Feb. Peers have seen positive performance on reporting days this month. Options...

Gaudenz Schneider

National Australia Bank (NAB AU) to release First Quarter Trading Update on 19 Feb 2025. Traders can use listed options to strategize for...

Westpac Banking (WBC AU) to announce 2025 Q1 Trading Update on 17 Feb. Peers have seen positive performance on reporting days this month. Options...