Podcast by S&P analysing commodity market trends, Commodities Focus

Commodities Focus

Podcast by S&P analysing commodity market trends

S&P Global Commodity Insights analysis of key news and pricing issues from across the global shipping, natural gas, power, petrochemicals, agriculture, and coal markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Emerging regulatory changes in the shipping industry, including EU ETS and fuel EU regulations, are driving a shift towards more sustainable practices and alternative fuels.</li><li>Alternative fuels like methanol, ammonia, and hydrogen are expected to play a significant role in the maritime sector, with infrastructure and adoption challenges to overcome.</li><li>Price reporting agencies like Platts are adapting to these regulatory changes by launching new assessments and methodologies to accurately reflect market conditions and provide valuable insights to stakeholders.</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Emerging regulatory changes in the shipping industry, including EU ETS and fuel EU regulations, are driving a shift towards more sustainable practices and alternative fuels.Alternative fuels like methanol, ammonia, and hydrogen are expected to play a significant role in the maritime sector, with infrastructure and adoption challenges to overcome.Price reporting agencies like Platts are adapting to these regulatory changes by launching new assessments and methodologies to accurately reflect market conditions and provide valuable insights to stakeholders.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Navigating a new era of shipping environmental regulations

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Takeaways: More pressures on freight rates… Still no spillover to PPI/CPI. Hedge funds appear to have an appetite for crude oil, but not so much for energy stocks. Macro data more tilted towards normalization rather than weakening.</li>
<li>Greetings from a cloudy Copenhagen and welcome to another Energy Cable, following last week’s weak-ish ISM prints. Ready for more turmoil in shipping?</li>
<li>A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S has announced that extreme weather conditions, including a storm surge along the South African coast, are expected to cause shipping delays.</li>
</ul>


Takeaways: More pressures on freight rates… Still no spillover to PPI/CPI. Hedge funds appear to have an appetite for crude oil, but not so much for energy stocks. Macro data more tilted towards normalization rather than weakening.
Greetings from a cloudy Copenhagen and welcome to another Energy Cable, following last week’s weak-ish ISM prints. Ready for more turmoil in shipping?
A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S has announced that extreme weather conditions, including a storm surge along the South African coast, are expected to cause shipping delays.


Energy Cable: When it Rains, It Pours in Shipping

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Early weakness in European shipping demand, while US demand remains strong</li><li>The freight rate story is more likely to impact USD-flation than EUR-flation</li><li>Expect another spike in freight rates when spring volumes arrive</li></ul>

Early weakness in European shipping demand, while US demand remains strongThe freight rate story is more likely to impact USD-flation than EUR-flationExpect another spike in freight rates when spring volumes arrive

Suez Watch: Euro demand cannot cope with these prices!

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

Orient Overseas (International) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orient-overseas-international-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:801:1" rel="noopener">Orient Overseas (International) (316 HK)</a>'s 23.7% decline in earnings in 1H26 is uninspiring, but market spot freight rates suggest an upturn in 2H26.</li>
<li>Its vessels on the vast majority of long-haul routes are fully loaded, and its load factor in 2Q26 has reversed four consecutive quarters of YoY decline - a positive sign.  </li>
<li>There is an earnings upgrade potential as 2H26 can easily pass the US$1bn mark. We are positive on OOIL but still prefer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sitc-international-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15301:1" rel="noopener">SITC International (1308 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>



Orient Overseas (International) (316 HK)'s 23.7% decline in earnings in 1H26 is uninspiring, but market spot freight rates suggest an upturn in 2H26.
Its vessels on the vast majority of long-haul routes are fully loaded, and its load factor in 2Q26 has reversed four consecutive quarters of YoY decline - a positive sign.  
There is an earnings upgrade potential as 2H26 can easily pass the US$1bn mark. We are positive on OOIL but still prefer SITC International (1308 HK). 


Orient Overseas Intl (316 HK): It May Be Turning

Global Commodities, Mint Finance

Srinidhi Raghavendra

Global Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>Panama Canal and Suez Canal are critical corridors underpinning global trade. &gt;50% of containers from Asia into America cross either through Panama or Suez.</li>
<li>Affected by El Niño, Panama Canal's capacity has shrunk to 25/day crossings &amp; risks falling to 18/day by February next year from an average of 36/day given shrinking water levels.</li>
<li>Given Europe’s higher sensitivity to geopolitics, European Natural Gas &amp; Crude Oil prices have reacted more wildly and have jumped sharply relative to US Gas and Oil prices.</li>
</ul>


Panama Canal and Suez Canal are critical corridors underpinning global trade. &gt;50% of containers from Asia into America cross either through Panama or Suez.
Affected by El Niño, Panama Canal's capacity has shrunk to 25/day crossings &amp; risks falling to 18/day by February next year from an average of 36/day given shrinking water levels.
Given Europe’s higher sensitivity to geopolitics, European Natural Gas &amp; Crude Oil prices have reacted more wildly and have jumped sharply relative to US Gas and Oil prices.


War and Weather Choking Supply Chains and Risks Spooking Inflation

Denmark

A.P. Moeller-Maersk A/S is a conglomerate with diversified holdings. The Company operates a fleet including container vessels, tankers, supply ships, special vessels, APM terminials, and oil drilling rigs.  A.P. Moeller-Maersk also operates industrial business and explores for and produces oil and gas. The Company is active worldwide.

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AP Moeller - Maersk A/S (MAERSKB DC)

Navigating a new era of shipping environmental regulations

Overall, regulatory changes, particularly in the EU, are reshaping the freight market towards a more sustainable future with a focus on reducing...

Commodities Focus

Energy Cable: When it Rains, It Pours in Shipping

Takeaways:More pressures on freight rates… Still no spillover to PPI/CPIHedge funds appear to have an appetite for crude oil, but not so much for...

Steno Research

Suez Watch: Euro demand cannot cope with these prices!

Takeaways: Early weakness in European shipping demand, while US demand remains strong The freight rate story is more likely to impact USD-flation...

Steno Research

Orient Overseas Intl (316 HK): It May Be Turning

Earnings outlook for 2H26 appears to be turning up, as implied by the significantly better spot freight rates. Load factor change has also reversed...

Osbert Tang, CFA

War and Weather Choking Supply Chains and Risks Spooking Inflation

Conflicts are intensifying in the Red Sea. US and UK launched about 70 airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen. Houthis vows to respond and asserts...

Mint Finance

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