Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Workers at US East/Gulf Coast ports could strike without new contract by Oct 1st</li>
<li>But data suggest importers have been boosting inventory over past few months</li>
<li>Although US West Coast port workers support ILA, they're unlikely to strike</li>
</ul>


Workers at US East/Gulf Coast ports could strike without new contract by Oct 1st
But data suggest importers have been boosting inventory over past few months
Although US West Coast port workers support ILA, they're unlikely to strike


A Potential October Strike at US East & Gulf Coast Container Ports Is Unlikely to Be Impactful

<ul>
<li>Backed by strong US demand, spot container rates remain very firm</li>
<li>On top of higher average freight rates, carriers now enjoying lower fuel prices</li>
<li>Dispersion of returns on carrier shares is eye-opening, only a few performed</li>
</ul>


Backed by strong US demand, spot container rates remain very firm
On top of higher average freight rates, carriers now enjoying lower fuel prices
Dispersion of returns on carrier shares is eye-opening, only a few performed


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rates Up | Transpac Volume Up | Fuel Price Down (August 2024)

<ul>
<li>Evergreen reported strong Q2 results, with revenue and margins both up sharply</li>
<li>Meanwhile, Hapag-Lloyd reported stagnant revenue and lower core profit margins</li>
<li>Divergent carrier performance reinforces our view that management skill matters</li>
</ul>


Evergreen reported strong Q2 results, with revenue and margins both up sharply
Meanwhile, Hapag-Lloyd reported stagnant revenue and lower core profit margins
Divergent carrier performance reinforces our view that management skill matters


More Q224 Container Carrier Results: Evergreen, Hapag-Lloyd Show Sharply Diverging Results

AP Moeller - Maersk A/S / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Despite rising spot rates, Maersk Q224 revenue and EBITDA both fell Y/Y</li>
<li>After lifting pessimistic guidance in June, Maersk upped FY24 targets again</li>
<li>We believe Maersk probably moved to limit spot exposure a year ago</li>
</ul>


Despite rising spot rates, Maersk Q224 revenue and EBITDA both fell Y/Y
After lifting pessimistic guidance in June, Maersk upped FY24 targets again
We believe Maersk probably moved to limit spot exposure a year ago


Maersk Q224 Results | Strangely, Danish Container Giant Saw Limited Gains From Higher Spot Rates

<ul>
<li>Overall, June container throughput growth and average container rates strong</li>
<li>But spot rates have begun to wobble recently, and 2025 uncertainty grows</li>
<li>We have decided to close our suggested container shipping pair trade </li>
</ul>


Overall, June container throughput growth and average container rates strong
But spot rates have begun to wobble recently, and 2025 uncertainty grows
We have decided to close our suggested container shipping pair trade 


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Pricing Still Firm | Spot Rates Fall | Closed Pair (July 2024)

Denmark

A.P. Moller - Maersk A/S operates as an integrated transport and logistics company. The Company offers container vessels, supply ships, special vessels, terminals, tug boat activities and reefer container box manufacturing. A.P. Moller-Maersk serves clients worldwide.

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AP Moller - Maersk A/S (MAERSKA DC)

A Potential October Strike at US East & Gulf Coast Container Ports Is Unlikely to Be Impactful

Although workers at US East and Gulf Coast ports could strike in October, for several reasons we believe the impact of a strike will be quite limited.

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rates Up | Transpac Volume Up | Fuel Price Down (August 2024)

Container shipping pricing momentum remained positive in July, and fuel prices have declined markedly over the past month.

Tracking Traffic

More Q224 Container Carrier Results: Evergreen, Hapag-Lloyd Show Sharply Diverging Results

Evergreen Marine's Q2 results far outpaced the results of both Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk. The Taiwanese carrier's results over the past 2.5 years...

Tracking Traffic

Maersk Q224 Results | Strangely, Danish Container Giant Saw Limited Gains From Higher Spot Rates

If you've read about skyrocketing spot container rates in 2024, you may be surprised to learn that Danish container shipping giant reported Y/Y...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Pricing Still Firm | Spot Rates Fall | Closed Pair (July 2024)

In June, price momentum and volume growth remained firm, but in July we've seen some spot rates dip. Mainly due to share price movements, we have...

Tracking Traffic

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