Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

AP Moeller - Maersk A/S / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q423 earnings fell sharply, but were sufficient to hit FY23 guidance</li>
<li>FY24 guidance also lower, but allows for a very wide range of outcomes</li>
<li>Management raised concerns about Red Sea impact, L-T excess supply issues</li>
</ul>


Q423 earnings fell sharply, but were sufficient to hit FY23 guidance
FY24 guidance also lower, but allows for a very wide range of outcomes
Management raised concerns about Red Sea impact, L-T excess supply issues


Maersk FY23 Meets Guidance | But FY24 Guidance & Commentary Rock Hopeful 'Glass Half-Full' Investors

<ul>
<li>December was best reading from our momentum tracker since November 2022</li>
<li>Improvement driven by rising spot rates, new fees, and stronger volume growth</li>
<li>Even before Red Sea / Suez capacity squeeze, conditions were bottoming</li>
</ul>


December was best reading from our momentum tracker since November 2022
Improvement driven by rising spot rates, new fees, and stronger volume growth
Even before Red Sea / Suez capacity squeeze, conditions were bottoming


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rate Momentum +ive | Throughput Up, Too | (January 2024)

<ul>
<li>As we begin lapping easy comps, our momentum index looks "less bad"</li>
<li>Red Sea re-routes, interest rate moves, fuel all helped lift shares recently</li>
<li>We think lots of bad news has been priced into shares at current levels</li>
</ul>


As we begin lapping easy comps, our momentum index looks "less bad"
Red Sea re-routes, interest rate moves, fuel all helped lift shares recently
We think lots of bad news has been priced into shares at current levels


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Lapping Easy Comps | Red Sea Re-Routes & More (December 2023)

<ul>
<li>Price momentum in October was negative, but decline moderated somewhat</li>
<li>Disparate Q3 profitability trends reported by Maersk, Evergreen, and ZIM </li>
<li>As sentiment weakens (again), we also see signs of a cyclical bottom</li>
</ul>


Price momentum in October was negative, but decline moderated somewhat
Disparate Q3 profitability trends reported by Maersk, Evergreen, and ZIM 
As sentiment weakens (again), we also see signs of a cyclical bottom


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Maersk, Evergreen, ZIM Report Disparate Results (November 2023)

<ul>
<li>Container shipping giant Maersk met Q3 expectations and maintained earlier FY23 guidance</li>
<li>However, downbeat commentary combined with capex and job cuts sent shares -17% lower</li>
<li>Maersk does not expect any recovery in '24, but we believe this pessimism already in prices</li>
</ul>


Container shipping giant Maersk met Q3 expectations and maintained earlier FY23 guidance
However, downbeat commentary combined with capex and job cuts sent shares -17% lower
Maersk does not expect any recovery in '24, but we believe this pessimism already in prices


Maersk Q3: Estimates Met, Guidance Kept | But Downbeat Assessment of Market Sends Shares Down -17%

Denmark

A.P. Moller - Maersk A/S operates as an integrated transport and logistics company. The Company offers container vessels, supply ships, special vessels, terminals, tug boat activities and reefer container box manufacturing. A.P. Moller-Maersk serves clients worldwide.

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AP Moller - Maersk A/S (MAERSKA DC)

Maersk FY23 Meets Guidance | But FY24 Guidance & Commentary Rock Hopeful 'Glass Half-Full' Investors

Maersk's downbeat commentary appeared to surprise investors last week. It also revealed a mismatch between management's long-term views and...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rate Momentum +ive | Throughput Up, Too | (January 2024)

Price momentum for deep-sea container rates is improving, and container volumes are also firming. Meanwhile, cheap fuel remains a slightly helpful...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Lapping Easy Comps | Red Sea Re-Routes & More (December 2023)

We believe price momentum has started to get "less bad", mainly due to easier Y/Y comps. A potential Red Sea re-route could soak up lots of under...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Maersk, Evergreen, ZIM Report Disparate Results (November 2023)

Container rates remain under pressure, and fuel is no longer a tailwind. But Evergreen's stellar performance YTD is worthy of investors' attention,...

Tracking Traffic

Maersk Q3: Estimates Met, Guidance Kept | But Downbeat Assessment of Market Sends Shares Down -17%

Last Friday Maersk reported Q3 results that met expectations. The company maintained FY23 guidance, but announced surprising cash-conservation...

Tracking Traffic

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