Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The December 2024 index review results for the BSE Sensex and BSE 100 Indices were announced after the close on Friday 22nd November 2024.</li>
<li>On the same day, the Bombay Stock Exchange announced several new names will be added to the Futures and Options (F&amp;O) segment resulting in multiple surprises among the index changes.</li>
<li>There will be one change for BSE Sensex and six changes for BSE 100 during the December 2024 index rebal event.</li>
</ul>


The December 2024 index review results for the BSE Sensex and BSE 100 Indices were announced after the close on Friday 22nd November 2024.
On the same day, the Bombay Stock Exchange announced several new names will be added to the Futures and Options (F&amp;O) segment resulting in multiple surprises among the index changes.
There will be one change for BSE Sensex and six changes for BSE 100 during the December 2024 index rebal event.


Quiddity BSE Dec 24 Rebal: Big Wins for Zomato & Jiofin as New F&O Inclusions Trigger Surprises

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited is an Indian diversified financial services firm offering a range of financial products and services. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>APL Apollo Tubes (APAT) reported the fourth consecutive quarter of weak operating performance (EBITDA/MT down 62% YoY in 2Q) on account of inventory loss of ~INR1.5b (led by a fall in steel prices) and higher discounting during the quarter.</li><li>Revenues grew marginally at 3% YoY led by volume growth (up 12% YoY), which was partially offset by a decline in realizations (down 8% YoY).</li><li>With higher inventory loss being booked in 2Q, we see a lower possibility of any major inventory loss in 2H.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

APL Apollo Tubes (APAT) reported the fourth consecutive quarter of weak operating performance (EBITDA/MT down 62% YoY in 2Q) on account of inventory loss of ~INR1.5b (led by a fall in steel prices) and higher discounting during the quarter.Revenues grew marginally at 3% YoY led by volume growth (up 12% YoY), which was partially offset by a decline in realizations (down 8% YoY).With higher inventory loss being booked in 2Q, we see a lower possibility of any major inventory loss in 2H.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

APL Apollo Tubes - Inventory Losses; Higher Discounting Hurts Margins

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>EBITDA/t Miss led by inventory loss: Q2FY25 EBITDA/t declined to an all-time low of Rs 1,821/t (down 62%/56% YoY/QoQ) led by the impact of inventory loss and sales discount as traders were in destocking mode amidst falling steel prices. Steel prices declined by ~Rs 7,500/t QoQ in Q2FY25.</li><li>Management believes that the worst is now behind and expects margins to expand to a normalised level of Rs 4,500-5,000/t over the next 2-3 quarters. </li><li>These margins will be sustained throughout FY26. The company targets EBITDA/t of Rs 5,040/t by FY27.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

EBITDA/t Miss led by inventory loss: Q2FY25 EBITDA/t declined to an all-time low of Rs 1,821/t (down 62%/56% YoY/QoQ) led by the impact of inventory loss and sales discount as traders were in destocking mode amidst falling steel prices. Steel prices declined by ~Rs 7,500/t QoQ in Q2FY25.Management believes that the worst is now behind and expects margins to expand to a normalised level of Rs 4,500-5,000/t over the next 2-3 quarters. These margins will be sustained throughout FY26. The company targets EBITDA/t of Rs 5,040/t by FY27.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

APL Apollo Tubes Ltd - EBITDA/T Miss on Inventory Loss

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX, 100, and 200 indices in the December 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We expect six ADDs/DELs for BSE 100 and six ADDs/DELs for BSE 200.</li>
<li>Zomato is one of the six BSE 100 expected DELs but its fate will depend on when its expected F&amp;O list inclusion takes place and the index provider's discretionary choices.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX, 100, and 200 indices in the December 2024 index rebal event.
We expect six ADDs/DELs for BSE 100 and six ADDs/DELs for BSE 200.
Zomato is one of the six BSE 100 expected DELs but its fate will depend on when its expected F&amp;O list inclusion takes place and the index provider's discretionary choices.


Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/​​​​SENSEX Dec 24: Some Changes to Expectations + Zomato Question Mark

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-September in October. There are companies with significant float changes from end-March and/or end-June.</li>
<li>The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in action from passive trackers.</li>
<li>Depending on the date that the shareholding was published, there could be 11 stocks with passive inflows from global trackers while 6 could see passive outflows in November.</li>
</ul>


Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-September in October. There are companies with significant float changes from end-March and/or end-June.
The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in action from passive trackers.
Depending on the date that the shareholding was published, there could be 11 stocks with passive inflows from global trackers while 6 could see passive outflows in November.


India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in November

India

APL Apollo Tubes is India's largest producer of structural steel tubes, holding approximately 55% of the market share. The company manufactures over 2,500 products, including square, rectangular, and circular hollow sections, as well as pre-galvanized tubes, galvanized tubes, and MS black pipes, catering to construction, infrastructure, and industrial sectors. Headquartered in Noida, Uttar Pradesh (Delhi NCR), the company was founded in 1986.

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APL Apollo Tubes (APAT IN)

Quiddity BSE Dec 24 Rebal: Big Wins for Zomato & Jiofin as New F&O Inclusions Trigger Surprises

We estimate one-way flows of US$285mn and US$324mn for SENSEX and BSE 100 index rebalance events in December 2024. The Inclusion/Exclusion events...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

APL Apollo Tubes - Inventory Losses; Higher Discounting Hurts Margins

Revenues grew marginally at 3% YoY led by volume growth (up 12% YoY), which was partially offset by a decline in realizations (down 8% YoY).

Motilal Oswal

APL Apollo Tubes Ltd - EBITDA/T Miss on Inventory Loss

Management believes that the worst is now behind and expects margins to expand to a normalised level of Rs 4,500-5,000/t over the next 2-3 quarters.

Axis Direct

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/SENSEX Dec 24: Some Changes to Expectations + Zomato Question Mark

The reference period ends today (31st October). Our BSE 100 expected ADDs/DELs remain unchanged. For BSE 200, all expected ADDs/DELs mentioned in...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in November

Changes to shareholding patterns could lead to changes in float for some stocks in local/global indices. Passive trackers will need to trade over 4...

Brian Freitas

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Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)

Quiddity BSE Dec 24 Rebal: Big Wins for Zomato & Jiofin as New F&O Inclusions Trigger Surprises

We estimate one-way flows of US$285mn and US$324mn for SENSEX and BSE 100 index rebalance events in December 2024. The Inclusion/Exclusion events...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

APL Apollo Tubes - Inventory Losses; Higher Discounting Hurts Margins

Revenues grew marginally at 3% YoY led by volume growth (up 12% YoY), which was partially offset by a decline in realizations (down 8% YoY).

Motilal Oswal

APL Apollo Tubes Ltd - EBITDA/T Miss on Inventory Loss

Management believes that the worst is now behind and expects margins to expand to a normalised level of Rs 4,500-5,000/t over the next 2-3 quarters.

Axis Direct

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/​​​​SENSEX Dec 24: Some Changes to Expectations + Zomato Question Mark

The reference period ends today (31st October). Our BSE 100 expected ADDs/DELs remain unchanged. For BSE 200, all expected ADDs/DELs mentioned in...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in November

Changes to shareholding patterns could lead to changes in float for some stocks in local/global indices. Passive trackers will need to trade over 4...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/SENSEX Dec 24: Some Changes to Expectations + Zomato Question Mark