Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Kurita Water Industries / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/light-wonder-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36929:1" rel="noopener">Light &amp; Wonder (LNW US)</a>/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/light-wonder-inc-7e7d040f-e811-4fb9-9710-796a39af299e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40171:1" rel="noopener">Light &amp; Wonder (LNW AU)</a> replaced <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-malt-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29116:1" rel="noopener">United Malt Group Ltd (UMG AU)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> last week.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a> stops trading this week and should be replaced by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont Mining (NEM US)</a> CDIs in the ASX indices.</li>
<li>Another week of ETF outflows for China with the largest outflows from trackers benchmarked to the CSI 1000 Index.</li>
</ul>



Light &amp; Wonder (LNW US)/ Light &amp; Wonder (LNW AU) replaced United Malt Group Ltd (UMG AU) in the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) last week.

Newcrest Mining (NCM AU) stops trading this week and should be replaced by Newmont Mining (NEM US) CDIs in the ASX indices.
Another week of ETF outflows for China with the largest outflows from trackers benchmarked to the CSI 1000 Index.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, Liontown, J&T Express, JP/IN Positioning, IndusInd Bank

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/polycab-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27877:1" rel="noopener">Polycab India</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/macrotech-developers-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27315:1" rel="noopener">Macrotech Developers</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/one-97-communications-limited-paytm" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26149:1" rel="noopener">Paytm</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-communications-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20892:1" rel="noopener">Tata Communications</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd-a-dvr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:349:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors DVR</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apl-apollo-tubes-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16132:1" rel="noopener">Apl Apollo Tubes</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/persistent-systems-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9468:1" rel="noopener">Persistent Systems</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suzlon-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1073:1" rel="noopener">Suzlon Energy</a> have run up over the recent past and have heightened investor attention.</li>
<li>The increase in market cap has put the stocks on active manager radars and could also result in the stocks being added to global indices in the near future.</li>
<li>We take a look at the positioning on the stocks and recommend pair trades to reduce market risk while trying to capture alpha.</li>
</ul>



Polycab India, Macrotech Developers, Paytm, Tata Communications, Tata Motors DVR, Apl Apollo Tubes, Persistent Systems and Suzlon Energy have run up over the recent past and have heightened investor attention.
The increase in market cap has put the stocks on active manager radars and could also result in the stocks being added to global indices in the near future.
We take a look at the positioning on the stocks and recommend pair trades to reduce market risk while trying to capture alpha.


India - Positioning on Some Interesting* Names

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>APL Apollo Tubes numbers stood below our and the street's estimates.</li><li>Revenue grew by 32%/3% YoY/QoQ but missed ours and consensus estimates by 2% led by lower-than-expected sales realisation.</li><li>EBITDA stood at Rs 307 Cr, up 58% YoY but declined by 5% QoQ, missing our and consensus estimates by 10%/6% respectively. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

APL Apollo Tubes numbers stood below our and the street's estimates.Revenue grew by 32%/3% YoY/QoQ but missed ours and consensus estimates by 2% led by lower-than-expected sales realisation.EBITDA stood at Rs 307 Cr, up 58% YoY but declined by 5% QoQ, missing our and consensus estimates by 10%/6% respectively. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

APL Apollo Tubes - Q1 Misses Our Estimates

<ul><li>APL Apollo Tubes (APAT) is a leading structural steel tube brand, operating with 14 brands in 4 product categories.</li><li>It has 55% market share in structural steel tubes in India with 3.6MTPA structural steel tube capacity.</li><li>The product type includes pre-galvanised tubes, Galvanised tubes, Structural ERW tubes, MS Black pipes and Hollow sections. The Company operates 11 manufacturing facilities.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

APL Apollo Tubes (APAT) is a leading structural steel tube brand, operating with 14 brands in 4 product categories.It has 55% market share in structural steel tubes in India with 3.6MTPA structural steel tube capacity.The product type includes pre-galvanised tubes, Galvanised tubes, Structural ERW tubes, MS Black pipes and Hollow sections. The Company operates 11 manufacturing facilities.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>APL Apollo tubes delivered a good set of results.</li><li>Despite a higher share of general products (46% vs. 44% QoQ), EBITDA/t improved to Rs 4,970/t (up 3%/10% YoY/QoQ) a 2% beat vs. consensus.</li><li>The beat was driven by 1) Higher EBITDA/t of general products (up 14% QoQ) as primary steel demand for structural tubes improves and channel destocking stops as the HRC prices stabilize</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

APL Apollo tubes delivered a good set of results.Despite a higher share of general products (46% vs. 44% QoQ), EBITDA/t improved to Rs 4,970/t (up 3%/10% YoY/QoQ) a 2% beat vs. consensus.The beat was driven by 1) Higher EBITDA/t of general products (up 14% QoQ) as primary steel demand for structural tubes improves and channel destocking stops as the HRC prices stabilizeContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

APL Apollo Tubes - Structural Growth Story Continues; Maintain BUY

India

APL Apollo Tubes is India's largest producer of structural steel tubes, holding approximately 55% of the market share. The company manufactures over 2,500 products, including square, rectangular, and circular hollow sections, as well as pre-galvanized tubes, galvanized tubes, and MS black pipes, catering to construction, infrastructure, and industrial sectors. Headquartered in Noida, Uttar Pradesh (Delhi NCR), the company was founded in 1986.

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APL Apollo Tubes (APAT IN)

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, Liontown, J&T Express, JP/IN Positioning, IndusInd Bank

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

India - Positioning on Some Interesting* Names

There are 8 Indian stocks have jumped in price recently and where the increased market cap will put them on active investors radars and could get...

Brian Freitas

APL Apollo Tubes - Q1 Misses Our Estimates

Revenue grew by 32%/3% YoY/QoQ but missed ours and consensus estimates by 2% led by lower-than-expected sales realisation.

Axis Direct

Pick of the Week - APL Apollo Tubes

APL Apollo Tubes (APAT) is a leading structural steel tube brand, operating with 14 brands in 4 product categories. It has 55% market share in...

Axis Direct

APL Apollo Tubes - Structural Growth Story Continues; Maintain BUY

Despite a higher share of general products (46% vs. 44% QoQ), EBITDA/t improved to Rs 4,970/t (up 3%/10% YoY/QoQ) a 2% beat vs. consensus.

Axis Direct

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