Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>When we reviewed Appier’s 2021 results we rambled on about the US for about half of our note discussing explosive growth potential. </li>
<li>We said that while Appier touted a &gt;50% QoQ growth rate in the US we suspected it was actually closer to 100%. </li>
<li>In 1Q it accelerated to &gt;180% QoQ growth prompting the sell side to go all surprised Pikachu.</li>
</ul>


When we reviewed Appier’s 2021 results we rambled on about the US for about half of our note discussing explosive growth potential. 
We said that while Appier touted a &gt;50% QoQ growth rate in the US we suspected it was actually closer to 100%. 
In 1Q it accelerated to &gt;180% QoQ growth prompting the sell side to go all surprised Pikachu.


Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>The stock is down 54% over the past year despite 41% revenue growth. We see 3 key drivers in 2022.   </li>
<li>Appier is growing rapidly in the US, a much bigger market than its home market of North Asia. </li>
<li>Appier is at the forefront of digital transformation, benefitting from structural DX of marketing functions and increased use of 1st party data.</li>
</ul>


The stock is down 54% over the past year despite 41% revenue growth. We see 3 key drivers in 2022.   
Appier is growing rapidly in the US, a much bigger market than its home market of North Asia. 
Appier is at the forefront of digital transformation, benefitting from structural DX of marketing functions and increased use of 1st party data.


Appier (4180 JP) - Eating the Cookie Crumbs

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Japan-Based AI company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/appier-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32165:1" rel="noopener">Appier Group Inc (4180 JP)</a> announced they had resolved to prepare to apply to change its listing on the Tokyo Stock Exchange to the Prime Market.</li>
<li>Appier has confirmed that it meets the criteria for the TSE Growth Market but if they move to the Prime Market, that would trigger a TOPIX Inclusion Event.</li>
<li>Below is a look at Appier's potential to satisfy the Section Transfer Requirements and the upside potential of this event.</li>
</ul>


Japan-Based AI company Appier Group Inc (4180 JP) announced they had resolved to prepare to apply to change its listing on the Tokyo Stock Exchange to the Prime Market.
Appier has confirmed that it meets the criteria for the TSE Growth Market but if they move to the Prime Market, that would trigger a TOPIX Inclusion Event.
Below is a look at Appier's potential to satisfy the Section Transfer Requirements and the upside potential of this event.


TOPIX Inclusion Pre-Event: Appier Group (4180 JP)

<ul>
<li>Appier reported 4Q21 results on Monday with revenue beating consensus by 5% and EBITDA beating by 323%. </li>
<li>The company guided for ¥17.5bn in revenue, above consensus at ¥16.2bn but significantly below our guesstimate of ¥20.8bn. </li>
<li>However, a close look at trends in the US suggest that our initial estimate remains reasonable enough.</li>
</ul>


Appier reported 4Q21 results on Monday with revenue beating consensus by 5% and EBITDA beating by 323%. 
The company guided for ¥17.5bn in revenue, above consensus at ¥16.2bn but significantly below our guesstimate of ¥20.8bn. 
However, a close look at trends in the US suggest that our initial estimate remains reasonable enough.


Appier – Baby Thrown Out With the Bathwater Number One

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>ExaWizards’ financial disclosures and track record are relatively limited making it difficult to create high-confidence forecasts. </li>
<li>However, what little information there is points to explosive growth potential. </li>
<li>Whether that potential will be realised is a question but our analysis suggests that the company’s execution potential is good.</li>
</ul>


ExaWizards’ financial disclosures and track record are relatively limited making it difficult to create high-confidence forecasts. 
However, what little information there is points to explosive growth potential. 
Whether that potential will be realised is a question but our analysis suggests that the company’s execution potential is good.


ExaWizards IPO – Latent Potential Abound

Japan

Appier Group, Inc. provides artificial intelligence software as a service (AISaaS) services based on data-driven decisions. The Company offers data analysis for potential users predicting and acquiring, relationships building and maintaining, purchasing and action motivation, audience intelligence, and more. Appier Group serves clients across Asian.

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Appier Group (4180 JP)

Appier – Explosive US Growth

We have been becoming increasingly bullish on Appier's prospects in the US and a +180% QoQ print in 1Q does nothing to diminish that.

Mio Kato

TOPIX Inclusion Pre-Event: Appier Group (4180 JP)

AI company Appier Group is planning to move to TSE prime which might trigger a TOPIX Inclusion Event in the next few months and act as a catalyst...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Appier – Baby Thrown Out With the Bathwater Number One

We believe Appier has been the unfair victim of selling Mothers names, many of which are low quality. But Appier is not, and with some very...

Mio Kato

ExaWizards IPO – Latent Potential Abound

What little information ExaWizards has disclosed points to explosive growth potential and although the margin of error is large, our analysis...

Mio Kato

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