AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Citi’s claim that AI has triggered the first true semiconductor upcycle in 25 years is partially convincing but also shows signs of overreach.</li>
<li>While ASPs have soared and logic chip margins are inflated, signs of margin compression, overordering, and inventory noise suggest the pricing boom may be peaking.</li>
<li>Investors may need to distinguish between capital-efficient AI bets and overleveraged plays, especially as credit markets begin to price in growing execution and demand risks.</li>
</ul>


Citi’s claim that AI has triggered the first true semiconductor upcycle in 25 years is partially convincing but also shows signs of overreach.
While ASPs have soared and logic chip margins are inflated, signs of margin compression, overordering, and inventory noise suggest the pricing boom may be peaking.
Investors may need to distinguish between capital-efficient AI bets and overleveraged plays, especially as credit markets begin to price in growing execution and demand risks.


Citi’s AI Supercycle Thesis Faces a Logic Check

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Smartphone units increase ~3% YoY, that’s slightly better than 1H26 at ~1.5%, but still low growth.   </li>
<li>Premium replacement demand is solid (Samsung, iPhone 17).  Improvements in Emerging Markets (Xiaomi, Transsion, vivo).   </li>
<li>Mediatek reports on 31 Oct, Qualcomm on 5 Nov.  Their Smartphone business isn’t a driver given tepid growth. New ventures revenue timeline is the question.</li>
</ul>


Smartphone units increase ~3% YoY, that’s slightly better than 1H26 at ~1.5%, but still low growth.   
Premium replacement demand is solid (Samsung, iPhone 17).  Improvements in Emerging Markets (Xiaomi, Transsion, vivo).   
Mediatek reports on 31 Oct, Qualcomm on 5 Nov.  Their Smartphone business isn’t a driver given tepid growth. New ventures revenue timeline is the question.


Smartphone 3Q25: A Little Bit Better, Just a Little

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors, The Circuit

The Circuit

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors

A Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors. With Jay Goldberg and Ben Bajarin

<ul><li>Discussion on NEO clouds and AI infrastructure landlords</li><li>Differentiation between hyperscalers and Neo clouds in terms of business models and focus on AI workloads</li><li>Consideration of critical software in DevOps and AI API software as a factor in defining a hyperscaler's offerings and differentiation from Neo clouds</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Discussion on NEO clouds and AI infrastructure landlordsDifferentiation between hyperscalers and Neo clouds in terms of business models and focus on AI workloadsConsideration of critical software in DevOps and AI API software as a factor in defining a hyperscaler's offerings and differentiation from Neo cloudsThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>As Chips Move to 3nm and 2nm Designs, Tech Companies Could See a Sharp Increase in Their Chip Manufacturing Cost</li>
<li>Intel (INTC.US): AMD to Submit Foundry Orders to Intel? We Think It’s Highly Unlikely. </li>
<li>HBM Stocks Will Keep Running (Micron, SK Hynix), It’s Just the Beginning </li>
</ul>


As Chips Move to 3nm and 2nm Designs, Tech Companies Could See a Sharp Increase in Their Chip Manufacturing Cost
Intel (INTC.US): AMD to Submit Foundry Orders to Intel? We Think It’s Highly Unlikely. 
HBM Stocks Will Keep Running (Micron, SK Hynix), It’s Just the Beginning 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Why Many Tech Companies Could Soon See Their Chip Costs Rise Substantially

<ul>
<li>OpenAI, Samsung &amp; SK Hynix Lock In Memory Pact — Taiwan Next Stop</li>
<li>MediaTek’s Major ASIC Ambitions Face Delays from Some Key Clients</li>
<li>TSMC: New Signals Underscore N2’s Rise as a Blockbuster Node </li>
</ul>


OpenAI, Samsung &amp; SK Hynix Lock In Memory Pact — Taiwan Next Stop
MediaTek’s Major ASIC Ambitions Face Delays from Some Key Clients
TSMC: New Signals Underscore N2’s Rise as a Blockbuster Node 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: OpenAI to Consume Nearly Half of Global DRAM; Why TSMC 2nm Will Be A Blockbuster

United States

Apple Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables and accessories, and sells a variety of related accessories. The Company also offers payment, digital content, cloud and advertising services. Apple Inc.'s customers are primarily in consumer, small & mid-sized business, education, enterprise and government markets worldwide.

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Apple (AAPL US)

Citi’s AI Supercycle Thesis Faces a Logic Check

Citi believes AI has sparked a semiconductor upcycle, but warnings about potential overreach and pricing peaks still exist. Investors should be...

Mint Finance

Smartphone 3Q25: A Little Bit Better, Just a Little

Smartphone unit growth remains low at ~3% YoY, with premium replacement demand solid and improvements in Emerging Markets.

Nicolas Baratte

EP 136: WE DON'T HAVE THE POWER!

Overall, hyperscalers like Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle provide a wide range of infrastructure and software services for various...

The Circuit

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Why Many Tech Companies Could Soon See Their Chip Costs Rise Substantially

Tech companies face rising chip manufacturing costs as they transition to 3nm and 2nm designs. Additionally, the HBM memory rally could have legs.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: OpenAI to Consume Nearly Half of Global DRAM; Why TSMC 2nm Will Be A Blockbuster

OpenAI, Samsung, and SK Hynix are forming alliances in the memory industry, while MediaTek faces delays in its ASIC ambitions and TSMC's N2 node is...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Citi’s AI Supercycle Thesis Faces a Logic Check

​Citi believes AI has sparked a semiconductor upcycle, but warnings about potential overreach and pricing peaks still exist. Investors should be...

Mint Finance

Smartphone 3Q25: A Little Bit Better, Just a Little

​Smartphone unit growth remains low at ~3% YoY, with premium replacement demand solid and improvements in Emerging Markets.

Nicolas Baratte

EP 136: WE DON'T HAVE THE POWER!

Overall, hyperscalers like Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle provide a wide range of infrastructure and software services for various...

The Circuit

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Why Many Tech Companies Could Soon See Their Chip Costs Rise Substantially

​Tech companies face rising chip manufacturing costs as they transition to 3nm and 2nm designs. Additionally, the HBM memory rally could have legs.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: OpenAI to Consume Nearly Half of Global DRAM; Why TSMC 2nm Will Be A Blockbuster

OpenAI, Samsung, and SK Hynix are forming alliances in the memory industry, while MediaTek faces delays in its ASIC ambitions and TSMC's N2 node is...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Citi believes AI has sparked a semiconductor upcycle, but warnings about potential overreach and pricing peaks still exist. Investors should be...

Smartphone unit growth remains low at ~3% YoY, with premium replacement demand solid and improvements in Emerging Markets.

Tech companies face rising chip manufacturing costs as they transition to 3nm and 2nm designs. Additionally, the HBM memory rally could have legs.