AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Citi’s claim that AI has triggered the first true semiconductor upcycle in 25 years is partially convincing but also shows signs of overreach.</li>
<li>While ASPs have soared and logic chip margins are inflated, signs of margin compression, overordering, and inventory noise suggest the pricing boom may be peaking.</li>
<li>Investors may need to distinguish between capital-efficient AI bets and overleveraged plays, especially as credit markets begin to price in growing execution and demand risks.</li>
</ul>


Citi’s claim that AI has triggered the first true semiconductor upcycle in 25 years is partially convincing but also shows signs of overreach.
While ASPs have soared and logic chip margins are inflated, signs of margin compression, overordering, and inventory noise suggest the pricing boom may be peaking.
Investors may need to distinguish between capital-efficient AI bets and overleveraged plays, especially as credit markets begin to price in growing execution and demand risks.


Citi’s AI Supercycle Thesis Faces a Logic Check

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Smartphone units increase ~3% YoY, that’s slightly better than 1H26 at ~1.5%, but still low growth.   </li>
<li>Premium replacement demand is solid (Samsung, iPhone 17).  Improvements in Emerging Markets (Xiaomi, Transsion, vivo).   </li>
<li>Mediatek reports on 31 Oct, Qualcomm on 5 Nov.  Their Smartphone business isn’t a driver given tepid growth. New ventures revenue timeline is the question.</li>
</ul>


Smartphone units increase ~3% YoY, that’s slightly better than 1H26 at ~1.5%, but still low growth.   
Premium replacement demand is solid (Samsung, iPhone 17).  Improvements in Emerging Markets (Xiaomi, Transsion, vivo).   
Mediatek reports on 31 Oct, Qualcomm on 5 Nov.  Their Smartphone business isn’t a driver given tepid growth. New ventures revenue timeline is the question.


Smartphone 3Q25: A Little Bit Better, Just a Little

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

<ul><li>We recommend selling FERRARI80 with a return of -2.8%, while opening new positions in ESTEE80, MUFG19, and SONY80.</li><li>The KTX DR Tactical Picks portfolio gained slightly, up +0.38% from the previous day, supported by the rise in NVDA80 after the US government approved chip exports to the Middle East.</li><li>Our study using the KTX Fundamental USD/THB Tracker indicates that the baht is currently excessively weak.</li></ul>

We recommend selling FERRARI80 with a return of -2.8%, while opening new positions in ESTEE80, MUFG19, and SONY80.The KTX DR Tactical Picks portfolio gained slightly, up +0.38% from the previous day, supported by the rise in NVDA80 after the US government approved chip exports to the Middle East.Our study using the KTX Fundamental USD/THB Tracker indicates that the baht is currently excessively weak.

KTX TACTICAL DR PICKS - October 10, 2025 (Eng.)

<ul><li>We recommend selling TOYOTA80 and POPMART80, with holding-period returns of +1.3% and –3.1%, respectively.</li><li>We also suggest initiating positions in ASML0 1 , a DR referencing ASML Holding N.V. listed on the Euronext Amsterdam, and MWG1 9 , a DR referencing Mobile World Investment Corporation listed on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange.</li><li>The average return of the KTX DR Tactical Picks portfolio was nearly unchanged from the previous day (–0.08%).</li></ul>

We recommend selling TOYOTA80 and POPMART80, with holding-period returns of +1.3% and –3.1%, respectively.We also suggest initiating positions in ASML0 1 , a DR referencing ASML Holding N.V. listed on the Euronext Amsterdam, and MWG1 9 , a DR referencing Mobile World Investment Corporation listed on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange.The average return of the KTX DR Tactical Picks portfolio was nearly unchanged from the previous day (–0.08%).

KTX TACTICAL DR PICKS - October 9, 2025 (Eng.)

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors, The Circuit

The Circuit

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors

A Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors. With Jay Goldberg and Ben Bajarin

<ul><li>Discussion on NEO clouds and AI infrastructure landlords</li><li>Differentiation between hyperscalers and Neo clouds in terms of business models and focus on AI workloads</li><li>Consideration of critical software in DevOps and AI API software as a factor in defining a hyperscaler's offerings and differentiation from Neo clouds</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Discussion on NEO clouds and AI infrastructure landlordsDifferentiation between hyperscalers and Neo clouds in terms of business models and focus on AI workloadsConsideration of critical software in DevOps and AI API software as a factor in defining a hyperscaler's offerings and differentiation from Neo cloudsThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

United States

Apple Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables and accessories, and sells a variety of related accessories. The Company also offers payment, digital content, cloud and advertising services. Apple Inc.'s customers are primarily in consumer, small & mid-sized business, education, enterprise and government markets worldwide.

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Apple (AAPL US)

Citi’s AI Supercycle Thesis Faces a Logic Check

Citi believes AI has sparked a semiconductor upcycle, but warnings about potential overreach and pricing peaks still exist. Investors should be...

Mint Finance

Smartphone 3Q25: A Little Bit Better, Just a Little

Smartphone unit growth remains low at ~3% YoY, with premium replacement demand solid and improvements in Emerging Markets.

Nicolas Baratte

KTX TACTICAL DR PICKS - October 10, 2025 (Eng.)

The KTX DR Tactical Picks portfolio gained slightly, up +0.38% from the previous day, supported by the rise in NVDA80 after the US government...

Krungthai XSpring

KTX TACTICAL DR PICKS - October 9, 2025 (Eng.)

We recommend selling TOYOTA80 and POPMART80, with holding-period returns of +1.3% and –3.1%, respectively. We also suggest initiating positions in...

Krungthai XSpring

EP 136: WE DON'T HAVE THE POWER!

Overall, hyperscalers like Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle provide a wide range of infrastructure and software services for various...

The Circuit

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Citi’s AI Supercycle Thesis Faces a Logic Check

​Citi believes AI has sparked a semiconductor upcycle, but warnings about potential overreach and pricing peaks still exist. Investors should be...

Mint Finance

Smartphone 3Q25: A Little Bit Better, Just a Little

​Smartphone unit growth remains low at ~3% YoY, with premium replacement demand solid and improvements in Emerging Markets.

Nicolas Baratte

KTX TACTICAL DR PICKS - October 10, 2025 (Eng.)

The KTX DR Tactical Picks portfolio gained slightly, up +0.38% from the previous day, supported by the rise in NVDA80 after the US government...

Krungthai XSpring

KTX TACTICAL DR PICKS - October 9, 2025 (Eng.)

We recommend selling TOYOTA80 and POPMART80, with holding-period returns of +1.3% and –3.1%, respectively. We also suggest initiating positions in...

Krungthai XSpring

EP 136: WE DON'T HAVE THE POWER!

Overall, hyperscalers like Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle provide a wide range of infrastructure and software services for various...

The Circuit

Citi believes AI has sparked a semiconductor upcycle, but warnings about potential overreach and pricing peaks still exist. Investors should be...

Smartphone unit growth remains low at ~3% YoY, with premium replacement demand solid and improvements in Emerging Markets.