Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Q225 WFE billing amounted to $33 billion, up 24% YoY and up 3% QoQ. China was the biggest spender with billings of $11.36 billion, +11% QoQ, albeit down 7% YoY</li>
<li>A US select committee on China WFE spending, published on October 7 last, highlights multiple gaps with existing US restrictions on China WFE and proposes nine separate remedies</li>
<li>Remedies include sweeping China country-wide bans, bans on related components, consumables &amp; deploying "incentives &amp; leverage" with allies so they follow suit. Still wondering about China's surprise rare earth move?</li>
</ul>


Q225 WFE billing amounted to $33 billion, up 24% YoY and up 3% QoQ. China was the biggest spender with billings of $11.36 billion, +11% QoQ, albeit down 7% YoY
A US select committee on China WFE spending, published on October 7 last, highlights multiple gaps with existing US restrictions on China WFE and proposes nine separate remedies
Remedies include sweeping China country-wide bans, bans on related components, consumables &amp; deploying "incentives &amp; leverage" with allies so they follow suit. Still wondering about China's surprise rare earth move?


Semiconductor WFE. China Retains #1 Spending Slot In Q225, US Mulls Yet Further Sweeping Sanctions

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors, The Circuit

The Circuit

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors

A Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors. With Jay Goldberg and Ben Bajarin

<ul><li>Discussion about the licenses and revenue share/tax imposed on AMD and Nvidia for selling to China</li><li>Concerns raised about the constitutionality of the measure and potential precedent it sets</li><li>Previous experiences in China contrasted with current moves towards a planned economy in America</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Discussion about the licenses and revenue share/tax imposed on AMD and Nvidia for selling to ChinaConcerns raised about the constitutionality of the measure and potential precedent it setsPrevious experiences in China contrasted with current moves towards a planned economy in AmericaThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

EP 131: NVIDIA/AMD Export Tax Unconstitutional? AMAT Earnings, Another Week for Intel!

<ul>
<li>According to Gartner, PC unit shipments increased 4.1% YoY in Q225 to reach 63.2 million</li>
<li>According to IDC, smartphone unit shipments grew 1% YoY in the second quarter, reaching 295.2 million units</li>
<li>Global semi sales were up 20% YoY in May while SEMI now expects YoY growth in WFE spending of 7.5% in 2025 and a further 10% in 2026</li>
</ul>


According to Gartner, PC unit shipments increased 4.1% YoY in Q225 to reach 63.2 million
According to IDC, smartphone unit shipments grew 1% YoY in the second quarter, reaching 295.2 million units
Global semi sales were up 20% YoY in May while SEMI now expects YoY growth in WFE spending of 7.5% in 2025 and a further 10% in 2026


Semi Key Indicators Q2 2025: PC, Smartphone Unit Shipments, Global Semi & WFE Sales All Looking Good

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>SOXX rose 1.3% as AMD, Nvidia, and Broadcom rallied on China access and upgrades, while Micron and ASML lagged on memory and High-NA concerns.</li>
<li>ASML warned on 2026 as TSMC and Samsung delay High-NA EUV; newer designs instead boost demand for etch players over lithography.</li>
<li>$136M ETF outflows and a 25% drop in options activity show gains remain narrow, with investors waiting on tariffs and real tech catalysts.</li>
</ul>


SOXX rose 1.3% as AMD, Nvidia, and Broadcom rallied on China access and upgrades, while Micron and ASML lagged on memory and High-NA concerns.
ASML warned on 2026 as TSMC and Samsung delay High-NA EUV; newer designs instead boost demand for etch players over lithography.
$136M ETF outflows and a 25% drop in options activity show gains remain narrow, with investors waiting on tariffs and real tech catalysts.


[Wafer Watch] Top Chipmakers Drive the Index, Broader Market Stalls

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>Growth expectations have come down, 2025 now expected flat YoY  1) China, Auto &amp; Industrial Capex declining 2) Intel inflated Capex is deflating 3) capacity add only from HBM, AI </li>
<li>The big structural positives continue (HBM, GAA, BSPD, High NA). This means higher Capex intensity. From 3nm to 14A, Capex doubles.  Wafer price doubles. </li>
<li>The risk is to overestimate demand: who can afford chips 2x more expensive? Chips that generate revenue or lower costs, ie chips that run applications in Data Centers</li>
</ul>


Growth expectations have come down, 2025 now expected flat YoY  1) China, Auto &amp; Industrial Capex declining 2) Intel inflated Capex is deflating 3) capacity add only from HBM, AI 
The big structural positives continue (HBM, GAA, BSPD, High NA). This means higher Capex intensity. From 3nm to 14A, Capex doubles.  Wafer price doubles. 
The risk is to overestimate demand: who can afford chips 2x more expensive? Chips that generate revenue or lower costs, ie chips that run applications in Data Centers


Semi Production Equipment Part 1: Great Tech Upgrades but Expectations Are Still Inflated

United States

Applied Materials, Inc. develops, manufactures, markets, and services semiconductor wafer fabrication equipment and related spare parts for the worldwide semiconductor industry.  The Company's customers include semiconductor wafer and integrated circuit manufacturers, flat panel liquid crystal displays, solar photovoltaic cells and modules and other electronic devices manufacturers.

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Applied Materials (AMAT US)

Semiconductor WFE. China Retains #1 Spending Slot In Q225, US Mulls Yet Further Sweeping Sanctions

Remedies like China country-wide bans, bans on related components, consumables & deploying "incentives & leverage" on allies so they follow suit....

William Keating

EP 131: NVIDIA/AMD Export Tax Unconstitutional? AMAT Earnings, Another Week for Intel!

An analyst discusses the potential impact of licensing and taxes on AMD and Nvidia in China, expressing concerns about legality and the need for a...

The Circuit

Semi Key Indicators Q2 2025: PC, Smartphone Unit Shipments, Global Semi & WFE Sales All Looking Good

Global semi sales were up 20% YoY in May while SEMI now expects YoY growth in WFE spending of 7.5% in 2025 and a further 10% in 2026

William Keating

[Wafer Watch] Top Chipmakers Drive the Index, Broader Market Stalls

AMD, Nvidia, and Broadcom lead the gains, but falling flows, cautious options bets, and structural shifts in chipmaking leave the rally on...

Mint Finance

Semi Production Equipment Part 1: Great Tech Upgrades but Expectations Are Still Inflated

SEMI PROD EQUIIPMENT growth expectations have decreased, 2025 expected flat YoY. Structural positives like HBM and AI drive higher capex...

Nicolas Baratte

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Semiconductor WFE. China Retains #1 Spending Slot In Q225, US Mulls Yet Further Sweeping Sanctions

Remedies like China country-wide bans, bans on related components, consumables & deploying "incentives & leverage" on allies so they follow suit....

William Keating

EP 131: NVIDIA/AMD Export Tax Unconstitutional? AMAT Earnings, Another Week for Intel!

An analyst discusses the potential impact of licensing and taxes on AMD and Nvidia in China, expressing concerns about legality and the need for a...

The Circuit

Semi Key Indicators Q2 2025: PC, Smartphone Unit Shipments, Global Semi & WFE Sales All Looking Good

Global semi sales were up 20% YoY in May while SEMI now expects YoY growth in WFE spending of 7.5% in 2025 and a further 10% in 2026

William Keating

[Wafer Watch] Top Chipmakers Drive the Index, Broader Market Stalls

AMD, Nvidia, and Broadcom lead the gains, but falling flows, cautious options bets, and structural shifts in chipmaking leave the rally on...

Mint Finance

Semi Production Equipment Part 1: Great Tech Upgrades but Expectations Are Still Inflated

​SEMI PROD EQUIIPMENT growth expectations have decreased, 2025 expected flat YoY. Structural positives like HBM and AI drive higher capex...

Nicolas Baratte

SEMI PROD EQUIIPMENT growth expectations have decreased, 2025 expected flat YoY. Structural positives like HBM and AI drive higher capex...