Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Copper Output Cuts: JX Advanced Metals will reduce electrolytic copper production by ~30kt (~5–8% of capacity) in FY25, with further smelting downscaling by March 2026.</li>
<li>Margins have collapsed as TC/RCs plunged into negative territory (~–$45/t vs $80/t in 2023), amid concentrate shortages and Chinese overcapacity.</li>
<li>Smelting will be retained mainly for rare-metal recovery (tantalum, indium, rhenium), while JX doubles down on semiconductor materials and upstream mineral projects.</li>
</ul>


Copper Output Cuts: JX Advanced Metals will reduce electrolytic copper production by ~30kt (~5–8% of capacity) in FY25, with further smelting downscaling by March 2026.
Margins have collapsed as TC/RCs plunged into negative territory (~–$45/t vs $80/t in 2023), amid concentrate shortages and Chinese overcapacity.
Smelting will be retained mainly for rare-metal recovery (tantalum, indium, rhenium), while JX doubles down on semiconductor materials and upstream mineral projects.


JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) – Smelting Cuts Reinforce Materials Pivot

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors, The Circuit

The Circuit

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors

A Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors. With Jay Goldberg and Ben Bajarin

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Discussion about the licenses and revenue share/tax imposed on AMD and Nvidia for selling to China</li><li>Concerns raised about the constitutionality of the measure and potential precedent it sets</li><li>Previous experiences in China contrasted with current moves towards a planned economy in America</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Discussion about the licenses and revenue share/tax imposed on AMD and Nvidia for selling to ChinaConcerns raised about the constitutionality of the measure and potential precedent it setsPrevious experiences in China contrasted with current moves towards a planned economy in AmericaThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

EP 131: NVIDIA/AMD Export Tax Unconstitutional? AMAT Earnings, Another Week for Intel!

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>Foxconn Tech invests US$1bn in U.S. robotics, AI, and smart manufacturing over 10 years, expanding into service robotics via RoboTemi stake.</li>
<li>Samsung to surpass US$50bn in U.S. chip investments, adding US$7bn for advanced packaging to compete with TSMC and capture AI/HPC integration opportunities.</li>
<li>Intel faces leadership crisis as CEO Lip Bu Tan’s strategy is criticized; U.S. policy and competitive pressures may accelerate market gains for TSMC and Samsung.</li>
</ul>


Foxconn Tech invests US$1bn in U.S. robotics, AI, and smart manufacturing over 10 years, expanding into service robotics via RoboTemi stake.
Samsung to surpass US$50bn in U.S. chip investments, adding US$7bn for advanced packaging to compete with TSMC and capture AI/HPC integration opportunities.
Intel faces leadership crisis as CEO Lip Bu Tan’s strategy is criticized; U.S. policy and competitive pressures may accelerate market gains for TSMC and Samsung.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Foxconn US$1bn USA Robotics Push; Samsung Doubles Down on US Fabs; Intel Crisis

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>LRCX reported FY 25Q4 revenues of $5.17 billion, + 10% QoQ, + 33% YoY and up $170 million from the guided midpoint.  </li>
<li>For FY 2025 as a whole, revenue amounted to $18.44 billion, up 23% YoY and their highest ever annual revenue, exceeding the previous record by roughly $1 billion.</li>
<li>China revenues are climbing once again and now represent 35% of sales and are on track to go even higher in the current quarter. That's a concern..</li>
</ul>


LRCX reported FY 25Q4 revenues of $5.17 billion, + 10% QoQ, + 33% YoY and up $170 million from the guided midpoint.  
For FY 2025 as a whole, revenue amounted to $18.44 billion, up 23% YoY and their highest ever annual revenue, exceeding the previous record by roughly $1 billion.
China revenues are climbing once again and now represent 35% of sales and are on track to go even higher in the current quarter. That's a concern..


LRCX FY 25Q4. Record Quarter, Record Year But Beware Tariff Threats & China Exposure

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>KKR HKE Investment is offering 30m shares (12.86% of shares out) of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> in a secondary offering that could raise up to JPY 91bn (US$620m).</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/applied-materials-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:283:1" rel="noopener">Applied Materials (AMAT US)</a> will become the largest shareholder in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> after the placement.</li>
<li>There will not be a lot of buying from passive trackers following the placement, but it could ease the way for inclusion of the stock in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 Index</a>.</li>
</ul>


KKR HKE Investment is offering 30m shares (12.86% of shares out) of Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) in a secondary offering that could raise up to JPY 91bn (US$620m).

Applied Materials (AMAT US) will become the largest shareholder in Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) after the placement.
There will not be a lot of buying from passive trackers following the placement, but it could ease the way for inclusion of the stock in the Nikkei 225 Index.


Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Small Index Impact for Now, but Could Lead to Something Bigger

United States

Applied Materials, Inc. develops, manufactures, markets, and services semiconductor wafer fabrication equipment and related spare parts for the worldwide semiconductor industry.  The Company's customers include semiconductor wafer and integrated circuit manufacturers, flat panel liquid crystal displays, solar photovoltaic cells and modules and other electronic devices manufacturers.

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Applied Materials (AMAT US)

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) – Smelting Cuts Reinforce Materials Pivot

JX Advanced Metals to cut copper production by 5-8% in FY25 due to low margins, focusing on rare-metal recovery and semiconductor materials.

Rahul Jain

EP 131: NVIDIA/AMD Export Tax Unconstitutional? AMAT Earnings, Another Week for Intel!

An analyst discusses the potential impact of licensing and taxes on AMD and Nvidia in China, expressing concerns about legality and the need for a...

The Circuit

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Foxconn US$1bn USA Robotics Push; Samsung Doubles Down on US Fabs; Intel Crisis

Foxconn and Samsung make significant investments in U.S. robotics and chip packaging technology, while Intel faces leadership challenges. TSMC and...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

LRCX FY 25Q4. Record Quarter, Record Year But Beware Tariff Threats & China Exposure

China revenues are climbing once again and now represent 35% of sales and are on track to go even higher in the current quarter. That's a concern..

William Keating

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Small Index Impact for Now, but Could Lead to Something Bigger

Kokusai Electric has traded in a tight range following its placement. 50m shares have traded since then vs the 30m placement shares. The stock has...

Brian Freitas

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JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) – Smelting Cuts Reinforce Materials Pivot

​JX Advanced Metals to cut copper production by 5-8% in FY25 due to low margins, focusing on rare-metal recovery and semiconductor materials.

Rahul Jain

EP 131: NVIDIA/AMD Export Tax Unconstitutional? AMAT Earnings, Another Week for Intel!

An analyst discusses the potential impact of licensing and taxes on AMD and Nvidia in China, expressing concerns about legality and the need for a...

The Circuit

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Foxconn US$1bn USA Robotics Push; Samsung Doubles Down on US Fabs; Intel Crisis

​Foxconn and Samsung make significant investments in U.S. robotics and chip packaging technology, while Intel faces leadership challenges. TSMC and...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

LRCX FY 25Q4. Record Quarter, Record Year But Beware Tariff Threats & China Exposure

China revenues are climbing once again and now represent 35% of sales and are on track to go even higher in the current quarter. That's a concern..

William Keating

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Small Index Impact for Now, but Could Lead to Something Bigger

Kokusai Electric has traded in a tight range following its placement. 50m shares have traded since then vs the 30m placement shares. The stock has...

Brian Freitas

JX Advanced Metals to cut copper production by 5-8% in FY25 due to low margins, focusing on rare-metal recovery and semiconductor materials.

Foxconn and Samsung make significant investments in U.S. robotics and chip packaging technology, while Intel faces leadership challenges. TSMC and...