Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a>’s Plan to Build a Plant in Germany Faces Delays.</li>
<li>TSMC’s Fab 21 Project in Phoenix, Arizona: Progress, Challenges, and Future Plans.</li>
<li>There remains uncertainty about whether political factors — such as U.S. President Trump’s tariff threats targeting the semiconductor industry— might impact or even reverse TSMC’s investment decision.</li>
</ul>



Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)’s Plan to Build a Plant in Germany Faces Delays.
TSMC’s Fab 21 Project in Phoenix, Arizona: Progress, Challenges, and Future Plans.
There remains uncertainty about whether political factors — such as U.S. President Trump’s tariff threats targeting the semiconductor industry— might impact or even reverse TSMC’s investment decision.


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Germany Fab Delayed for European Budget Crisis; Fab 21 Project in Arizona.

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>More US restrictions on export of SPE Semi Production Equipment to Chinese firms (CXMT, SMIC, YMTC). The big increase in Chinese spending was done over 2023-24, it's declining in 2025-26. </li>
<li>Chinese domestic SPE vendors are growing fast and gaining share from AMAT, LAM, TEL. ASML is a monopoly below 65nm. KLA is very dominant. Focus on best 2: ASML, KLA.</li>
<li>China’s efforts to grow its own supply chain and equipment makers will continue, AMEC and Naura are the leaders. Consolidation could start. </li>
</ul>


More US restrictions on export of SPE Semi Production Equipment to Chinese firms (CXMT, SMIC, YMTC). The big increase in Chinese spending was done over 2023-24, it's declining in 2025-26. 
Chinese domestic SPE vendors are growing fast and gaining share from AMAT, LAM, TEL. ASML is a monopoly below 65nm. KLA is very dominant. Focus on best 2: ASML, KLA.
China’s efforts to grow its own supply chain and equipment makers will continue, AMEC and Naura are the leaders. Consolidation could start. 


China – US: More US Restrictions on Chinese Firms, but Chinese Equipment Firms Are Growing Fast

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Growth expectations have come down, 2025 now expected flat YoY  1) China, Auto &amp; Industrial Capex declining 2) Intel inflated Capex is deflating 3) capacity add only from HBM, AI </li>
<li>The big structural positives continue (HBM, GAA, BSPD, High NA). This means higher Capex intensity. From 3nm to 14A, Capex doubles.  Wafer price doubles. </li>
<li>The risk is to overestimate demand: who can afford chips 2x more expensive? Chips that generate revenue or lower costs, ie chips that run applications in Data Centers</li>
</ul>


Growth expectations have come down, 2025 now expected flat YoY  1) China, Auto &amp; Industrial Capex declining 2) Intel inflated Capex is deflating 3) capacity add only from HBM, AI 
The big structural positives continue (HBM, GAA, BSPD, High NA). This means higher Capex intensity. From 3nm to 14A, Capex doubles.  Wafer price doubles. 
The risk is to overestimate demand: who can afford chips 2x more expensive? Chips that generate revenue or lower costs, ie chips that run applications in Data Centers


Semi Production Equipment Part 1: Great Tech Upgrades but Expectations Are Still Inflated

Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

<ul><li>In this edition: • AkzoNobel | JSW Paints and Indigo Paints reported to lead race for Akzo Nobel India • BE Semiconductor Industries | Applied Materials takes 9% interest • Fugro | geopolitical and economic uncertainties to depress 1Q25 revenue and EBIT • TomTom | strong start of the year – reiterates FY25 guidance</li></ul>

In this edition: • AkzoNobel | JSW Paints and Indigo Paints reported to lead race for Akzo Nobel India • BE Semiconductor Industries | Applied Materials takes 9% interest • Fugro | geopolitical and economic uncertainties to depress 1Q25 revenue and EBIT • TomTom | strong start of the year – reiterates FY25 guidance

What's New(s) in Amsterdam - 15 April (AkzoNobel | BE Semiconductor Industries | Fugro | TomTom)

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>Global semiconductor sales for the month of January 2025 hit $56.5 billion, an increase of 17.9% YoY, but down 1.7% MoM</li>
<li>TSMC is also off to an excellent start in 2025. YTD revenues through February are up 39.2%.</li>
<li>2025 Semi forecast? Think 2024 without the memory boom and way more volatility</li>
</ul>


Global semiconductor sales for the month of January 2025 hit $56.5 billion, an increase of 17.9% YoY, but down 1.7% MoM
TSMC is also off to an excellent start in 2025. YTD revenues through February are up 39.2%.
2025 Semi forecast? Think 2024 without the memory boom and way more volatility


Semiconductors. Key Indicator Updates, 2024 In Review, 2025 Forecasts

United States

Applied Materials, Inc. develops, manufactures, markets, and services semiconductor wafer fabrication equipment and related spare parts for the worldwide semiconductor industry.  The Company's customers include semiconductor wafer and integrated circuit manufacturers, flat panel liquid crystal displays, solar photovoltaic cells and modules and other electronic devices manufacturers.

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Applied Materials (AMAT US)

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Germany Fab Delayed for European Budget Crisis; Fab 21 Project in Arizona.

TSMC faces delays in building a plant in Germany and uncertainty in investment decisions due to political factors like Trump's tariff threats....

Patrick Liao

China – US: More US Restrictions on Chinese Firms, but Chinese Equipment Firms Are Growing Fast

US to restrict export of Semi Production Equipment to Chinese firms CXMT, SMIC, YMTC. Chinese vendors gaining share from AMAT, LAM, TEL. China...

Nicolas Baratte

Semi Production Equipment Part 1: Great Tech Upgrades but Expectations Are Still Inflated

SEMI PROD EQUIIPMENT growth expectations have decreased, 2025 expected flat YoY. Structural positives like HBM and AI drive higher capex...

Nicolas Baratte

What's New(s) in Amsterdam - 15 April (AkzoNobel | BE Semiconductor Industries | Fugro | TomTom)

In this edition: • AkzoNobel | JSW Paints and Indigo Paints reported to lead race for Akzo Nobel India • BE Semiconductor Industries | Applied...

The IDEA!

Semiconductors. Key Indicator Updates, 2024 In Review, 2025 Forecasts

2025 Semi forecast? Think 2024 without the memory boom and way more volatility. Chaos will ultimately beget opportunity, just not yet...

William Keating

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Germany Fab Delayed for European Budget Crisis; Fab 21 Project in Arizona.

​TSMC faces delays in building a plant in Germany and uncertainty in investment decisions due to political factors like Trump's tariff threats....

Patrick Liao

China – US: More US Restrictions on Chinese Firms, but Chinese Equipment Firms Are Growing Fast

​US to restrict export of Semi Production Equipment to Chinese firms CXMT, SMIC, YMTC. Chinese vendors gaining share from AMAT, LAM, TEL. China...

Nicolas Baratte

Semi Production Equipment Part 1: Great Tech Upgrades but Expectations Are Still Inflated

​SEMI PROD EQUIIPMENT growth expectations have decreased, 2025 expected flat YoY. Structural positives like HBM and AI drive higher capex...

Nicolas Baratte

What's New(s) in Amsterdam - 15 April (AkzoNobel | BE Semiconductor Industries | Fugro | TomTom)

In this edition: • AkzoNobel | JSW Paints and Indigo Paints reported to lead race for Akzo Nobel India • BE Semiconductor Industries | Applied...

The IDEA!

Semiconductors. Key Indicator Updates, 2024 In Review, 2025 Forecasts

2025 Semi forecast? Think 2024 without the memory boom and way more volatility. Chaos will ultimately beget opportunity, just not yet...

William Keating

TSMC faces delays in building a plant in Germany and uncertainty in investment decisions due to political factors like Trump's tariff threats....

US to restrict export of Semi Production Equipment to Chinese firms CXMT, SMIC, YMTC. Chinese vendors gaining share from AMAT, LAM, TEL. China...

SEMI PROD EQUIIPMENT growth expectations have decreased, 2025 expected flat YoY. Structural positives like HBM and AI drive higher capex...