Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

The much-anticipated acquisition by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA</a> of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arm-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21816:1" rel="noopener">Arm</a> from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank</a> was formally <a href="https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-to-acquire-arm-for-40-billion-creating-worlds-premier-computing-company-for-the-age-of-ai" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> on Monday. The transaction is valued at $40 billion, an approximately equal combination of cash and NVIDIA stock.On the surface the deal looks strategically solid from NVIDIA's perspective. It places the company at the center of Arm's one hundred and eighty billion connected device ecosystem. Perhaps even more importantly, it opens up the possibility of an outright assault on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel's</a> data center dominance by adding Arm-based server processors to complement NVIDIA's existing lineup of GPUs and interconnect.Underneath the surface however, this deal is fraught with issues and risks. While Arm has been a very successful company, their growth is flatlining as smartphone sales stagnate. Furthermore, we see the rise of RISC-V as a very real threat to Arm's business model in the coming years. Arm has never competed with its customers. Under NVIDIA ownership, this will be virtually impossible to avoid.From a regulatory perspective, Arm IP moving under american ownership will raise the very real prospect that this technology will become a future weapon in the US-China trade and technology wars. In today's environment, it's difficult to see why China would agree to facilitate that possibility.All in all we think this deal is not as good as it seems on the surface and that it will be practically impossible to get through the regulatory approval process.

The much-anticipated acquisition by NVIDIA of Arm from Softbank was formally announced on Monday. The transaction is valued at $40 billion, an approximately equal combination of cash and NVIDIA stock.On the surface the deal looks strategically solid from NVIDIA's perspective. It places the company at the center of Arm's one hundred and eighty billion connected device ecosystem. Perhaps even more importantly, it opens up the possibility of an outright assault on Intel's data center dominance by adding Arm-based server processors to complement NVIDIA's existing lineup of GPUs and interconnect.Underneath the surface however, this deal is fraught with issues and risks. While Arm has been a very successful company, their growth is flatlining as smartphone sales stagnate. Furthermore, we see the rise of RISC-V as a very real threat to Arm's business model in the coming years. Arm has never competed with its customers. Under NVIDIA ownership, this will be virtually impossible to avoid.From a regulatory perspective, Arm IP moving under american ownership will raise the very real prospect that this technology will become a future weapon in the US-China trade and technology wars. In today's environment, it's difficult to see why China would agree to facilitate that possibility.All in all we think this deal is not as good as it seems on the surface and that it will be practically impossible to get through the regulatory approval process. 

NVIDIA+Arm. Strategically Solid But Practically Impossible.

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) / Equity Bottom-Up

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC)

The Trump administration is considering whether or not to add Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. (SMIC, 981 HK) to the Commerce Department's "Entity List" - the same mechanism that was used to restrict the export of American technology to Huawei. This would cause SMIC a great deal of inconvenience and further undercut American semiconductor production equipment (SPE) sales to China. A sword is hanging over the share prices of SMIC itself and leading American SPE makers including Applied Materials (AMAT), Lam Research (LRCX) and KLA (KLAC). Another act of economic war intended to cripple China's high-tech industries, it would also convince the Chinese government - if any further convincing is necessary - that eliminating dependence on American technology is an absolute necessity.Some form of retaliation also seems likely. Has anyone calculated the valuations of American listed companies assuming no further growth in sales in China, declining sales in China, or no sales in China at all? Not only high-tech is at risk.Potential beneficiaries include Japanese and European SPE makers including Tokyo Electron (8035 JP), Lasertec (6920 JP), Screen Holdings (7735 JP) and ASM International (ASM). American commentators have claimed that semiconductors cannot be produced without American technology, but that is not true.Nevertheless, the immediate concern is the impact of the U.S-China trade war on semiconductor capital spending, which in the short to medium term at least is negative for all concerned.

The Trump administration is considering whether or not to add Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. (SMIC, 981 HK) to the Commerce Department's "Entity List" - the same mechanism that was used to restrict the export of American technology to Huawei. This would cause SMIC a great deal of inconvenience and further undercut American semiconductor production equipment (SPE) sales to China. A sword is hanging over the share prices of SMIC itself and leading American SPE makers including Applied Materials (AMAT), Lam Research (LRCX) and KLA (KLAC). Another act of economic war intended to cripple China's high-tech industries, it would also convince the Chinese government - if any further convincing is necessary - that eliminating dependence on American technology is an absolute necessity.Some form of retaliation also seems likely. Has anyone calculated the valuations of American listed companies assuming no further growth in sales in China, declining sales in China, or no sales in China at all? Not only high-tech is at risk.Potential beneficiaries include Japanese and European SPE makers including Tokyo Electron (8035 JP), Lasertec (6920 JP), Screen Holdings (7735 JP) and ASM International (ASM). American commentators have claimed that semiconductors cannot be produced without American technology, but that is not true.Nevertheless, the immediate concern is the impact of the U.S-China trade war on semiconductor capital spending, which in the short to medium term at least is negative for all concerned.  

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

After contracting just over 10% in the first quarter, second quarter 2020 revenues for the top 5 semiconductor equipment manufacturers amounted to $15.4 billion, an increase of 13.4% QoQ. During the earnings season, all five presented a positive outlook for the year as a whole and the consensus would appear to be calling for greater than 10% growth year on year.Separately, SEMI has just reported that billings from the North American equipment suppliers for the month of July amounted to $14.6 billion, an increase of 12% sequentially and 28% YoY. Here's a look in more detail at what's happening in the sector.

After contracting just over 10% in the first quarter, second quarter 2020 revenues for the top 5 semiconductor equipment manufacturers amounted to $15.4 billion, an increase of 13.4% QoQ. During the earnings season, all five presented a positive outlook for the year as a whole and the consensus would appear to be calling for greater than 10% growth year on year.Separately, SEMI has just reported that billings from the North American equipment suppliers for the month of July amounted to $14.6 billion, an increase of 12% sequentially and 28% YoY. Here's a look in more detail at what's happening in the sector. 

Semiconductor Wafer Fab Equipment. Solid Second Quarter, Strong July, On Track For >10% YoY Growth.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Our outlook remains status quo: we are bullish and we believe the path of least resistance remains higher. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Technology: Semiconductor, Mid-Cap, Semiconductor Equip., Large/Mid-Cap, Semiconductor Equip., Small-Cap, and Software, Internet.

Our outlook remains status quo: we are bullish and we believe the path of least resistance remains higher. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Technology: Semiconductor, Mid-Cap, Semiconductor Equip., Large/Mid-Cap, Semiconductor Equip., Small-Cap, and Software, Internet.

U. S. Equity Strategy: Status Quo: Bullish Outlook Intact

Our view remains bullish as long as the S&amp;P 500 is above the 2940-2980 support zone and we suggest buying any dips. Additionally, 3076 is a short-term support level to watch on the S&amp;P 500; if 3076 holds it would be further confirmation that the bulls are still in charge. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Technology: Semiconductors, Mid-Cap, Semiconductor Equip., Large/Mid-Cap, Software, Data Analysis &amp; Solutions, Software, E-Commerce.

Our view remains bullish as long as the S&amp;P 500 is above the 2940-2980 support zone and we suggest buying any dips. Additionally, 3076 is a short-term support level to watch on the S&amp;P 500; if 3076 holds it would be further confirmation that the bulls are still in charge. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Technology: Semiconductors, Mid-Cap, Semiconductor Equip., Large/Mid-Cap, Software, Data Analysis &amp; Solutions, Software, E-Commerce.

U.S. Equity Strategy: S&P 500 A Coiled Spring

United States

Applied Materials, Inc. develops, manufactures, markets, and services semiconductor wafer fabrication equipment and related spare parts for the worldwide semiconductor industry.  The Company's customers include semiconductor wafer and integrated circuit manufacturers, flat panel liquid crystal displays, solar photovoltaic cells and modules and other electronic devices manufacturers.

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Applied Materials (AMAT US)

NVIDIA+Arm. Strategically Solid But Practically Impossible.

The long-anticipated acquisition by NVIDIA of Arm Holdings (ARM LN)

William Keating

Sword of Trump Hanging Over SMIC

xxx The Trump administration is considering whether or not U.S. agencies are in discussions to determine whether Semiconductor Manufacturing...

Scott Foster

Semiconductor Wafer Fab Equipment. Solid Second Quarter, Strong July, On Track For >10% YoY Growth.

After contracting just over 10% in the first quarter, second quarter 2020 revenues for the top 5 semiconductor equipment manufacturers amounted to...

William Keating

U. S. Equity Strategy: Status Quo: Bullish Outlook Intact

Our outlook remains status quo: we are bullish and we believe the path of least resistance remains higher. In today’s report we highlight...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: S&P 500 A Coiled Spring

Our view remains bullish as long as the S&P 500 is above the 2940-2980 support zone and we suggest buying any dips. Additionally, 3076 is a...

Vermilion Research

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