Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and we will maintain our bullish outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is above 6028-6059.</li>
<li>Short-Term supports on SPX include 6400-6410, 6340-6360, 6200, 6100-6150, and 6028-6059.</li>
<li>Various prior leadership areas from the April lows appear ready to continue higher following 1+ month consolidations. IGV, PLTR, APP, SOUN, RZLV, SHOP, FROG, U, CDNS, RDDT, JMIA, RR, Z,HIMS,MU,GRAL</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and we will maintain our bullish outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is above 6028-6059.
Short-Term supports on SPX include 6400-6410, 6340-6360, 6200, 6100-6150, and 6028-6059.
Various prior leadership areas from the April lows appear ready to continue higher following 1+ month consolidations. IGV, PLTR, APP, SOUN, RZLV, SHOP, FROG, U, CDNS, RDDT, JMIA, RR, Z,HIMS,MU,GRAL


Downgrading Utilities to Market Weight; Bullish Outlook Intact; Prior Leadership to Shine?

<ul>
<li>A weak 20-year note auction last Wednesday sparked the first semi-meaningful pullback since this lockout rally began April 22nd, when we turned short-term bullish (4/22/25Compass) as SPX was testing 5100-5120.</li>
<li>We will be watching the 10- and 30-year Treasury yields closely, as both are approaching important resistance levels (more on that below).</li>
<li>Unsurprisingly, SPX only tested short-term gap support on the pullback at 5700-5785, where we said to expect support in last week's Compass (5/20/25). Expect this gap support to hold.</li>
</ul>


A weak 20-year note auction last Wednesday sparked the first semi-meaningful pullback since this lockout rally began April 22nd, when we turned short-term bullish (4/22/25Compass) as SPX was testing 5100-5120.
We will be watching the 10- and 30-year Treasury yields closely, as both are approaching important resistance levels (more on that below).
Unsurprisingly, SPX only tested short-term gap support on the pullback at 5700-5785, where we said to expect support in last week's Compass (5/20/25). Expect this gap support to hold.


Upgrading Consumer Discretionary (XLY) To Overweight; 5700-5785 SPX Gap Support Holding as Expected

High Quality Stock Setups, Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

High Quality Stock Setups

Finding high potential stock setups on quality companies

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>As we begin 2024, the past few week have been consumed with media chatter over the launch of new bitcoin ETF’s with predictions this would unleash a new bitcoin bull market, meanwhile price action in different market sectors have been off to surprisingly strong starts.</li><li>Regardless of your favorite market prognosticators’ forecast for 2024 (up, down, or sideways), catching emerging waves in the start of each year, especially paying attention to volume and price, can lead to significant outperformance.</li><li>For example, if you recall back to January 2023’s earnings call season, it featured an eye opening proclamation from Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella that “<em>We [Microsoft] fundamentally believe the next platform wave will be AI</em>” which came exactly one day before Microsoft announced its rumored $10B investment in OpenAI.</li></ul>

As we begin 2024, the past few week have been consumed with media chatter over the launch of new bitcoin ETF’s with predictions this would unleash a new bitcoin bull market, meanwhile price action in different market sectors have been off to surprisingly strong starts.Regardless of your favorite market prognosticators’ forecast for 2024 (up, down, or sideways), catching emerging waves in the start of each year, especially paying attention to volume and price, can lead to significant outperformance.For example, if you recall back to January 2023’s earnings call season, it featured an eye opening proclamation from Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella that “We [Microsoft] fundamentally believe the next platform wave will be AI” which came exactly one day before Microsoft announced its rumored $10B investment in OpenAI.

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

TecDo Technology / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The core of TecDo's business model is to utilize AI technology to provide customers with result-centric marketing solutions.This is not traditional "traffic reselling”, but a value-sharing based on technological empowerment.</li>
<li>As a rare AI-native global marketing platform, TecDo would enjoy a certain valuation premium. Our view is valuation of TecDo would be higher than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mobvista" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27574:1" rel="noopener">Mobvista</a>, but lower than AppLovin.</li>
<li>TecDo's media resources are highly concentrated on a few global platforms.If TecDo cannot continuously demonstrate its independence or irreplaceability of the traffic/channels, the logic behind high valuation would be challenged.</li>
</ul>


The core of TecDo's business model is to utilize AI technology to provide customers with result-centric marketing solutions.This is not traditional "traffic reselling”, but a value-sharing based on technological empowerment.
As a rare AI-native global marketing platform, TecDo would enjoy a certain valuation premium. Our view is valuation of TecDo would be higher than Mobvista, but lower than AppLovin.
TecDo's media resources are highly concentrated on a few global platforms.If TecDo cannot continuously demonstrate its independence or irreplaceability of the traffic/channels, the logic behind high valuation would be challenged.


Pre-IPO TecDo Technology - The Investment Logic, the Concerns and the Outlook

India focused: IPO, special situations, Stylus Holdings

Himanshu Dugar

India focused: IPO, special situations

Stylus Holdings

Stylus Holdings is a buy-side equity research firm. We offer bottom-up investment ideas as well as provide on demand equity research and portfolio tracking. 
At Stylus, our focus is to identify market dislocations that can generate 20+% IRR with a reasonable margin of safety. As part of our research process, we do a deep dive into the fundamentals of the company, evaluate their competitive positioning and assess their valuation.
Our investment team is led by Himanshu Dugar. Himanshu is a Chartered Accountant and a CFA charter holder. He has 10+ years of active experience in the stock market with stints at CRISIL Research, a S&P Global copmany and Miras Investments, a single family office based in Dubai.

Equity Research Firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Amagi's unified cloud-based media infrastructure serves to digitise traditional media content and enable monetisation. Its two-way platform supports not just the content-owners but also distributors globally with varied content access</li>
<li>By attracting both media companies and distributors, Amagi benefits from a content-driven flywheel effect, creating structural stickiness with 120+% NRR and 35–50% cost savings for broadcasters.</li>
<li>Amagi has been a key enabler for broadcasting for live-events (FIFA, NFL) while its content library attracts small/new OTT platforms. Only concern is whether it can tap larger media/OTT platforms?</li>
</ul>


Amagi's unified cloud-based media infrastructure serves to digitise traditional media content and enable monetisation. Its two-way platform supports not just the content-owners but also distributors globally with varied content access
By attracting both media companies and distributors, Amagi benefits from a content-driven flywheel effect, creating structural stickiness with 120+% NRR and 35–50% cost savings for broadcasters.
Amagi has been a key enabler for broadcasting for live-events (FIFA, NFL) while its content library attracts small/new OTT platforms. Only concern is whether it can tap larger media/OTT platforms?


Amagi Media Labs: Taking Media Companies to the Cloud Universe

United States

AppLovin Corporation provides software solutions. The Company offers an end-to-end software that optimizes monetization, and uses machine learning to make data-driven marketing decisions for profitable growth. AppLovin serves clients worldwide.

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AppLovin (APP US)

Downgrading Utilities to Market Weight; Bullish Outlook Intact; Prior Leadership to Shine?

Downgrading Utilities $XLU to Market Weight; Bullish Outlook Intact; Time for Prior Leadership to Shine? $IGV $PLTR $APP $SOUN $RZLV $SHOP $FROG $U...

Vermilion Research

Upgrading Consumer Discretionary (XLY) To Overweight; 5700-5785 SPX Gap Support Holding as Expected

Upgrading Consumer Discretionary $XLY to Overweight; 5700-5785 $SPX Gap Support Holding as we expected/discussed last week. 4.7-4.8% on 10y...

Vermilion Research

Weekly Stock Bullfinder - Week of 1/15

As we begin 2024, the past few week have been consumed with media chatter over the launch of new bitcoin ETF’s with predictions this would unleash...

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Pre-IPO TecDo Technology - The Investment Logic, the Concerns and the Outlook

TecDo's AI-driven model offers value-sharing through technology, leading to higher valuation than Mobvista but lower than AppLovin. But...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Amagi Media Labs: Taking Media Companies to the Cloud Universe

Amagi's media SaaS digitizes traditional content, supports global distributors. A Key player in live-event broadcasting and for small OTT...

Himanshu Dugar

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Downgrading Utilities to Market Weight; Bullish Outlook Intact; Prior Leadership to Shine?

Downgrading Utilities $XLU to Market Weight; Bullish Outlook Intact; Time for Prior Leadership to Shine? $IGV $PLTR $APP $SOUN $RZLV $SHOP $FROG $U...

Vermilion Research

Upgrading Consumer Discretionary (XLY) To Overweight; 5700-5785 SPX Gap Support Holding as Expected

Upgrading Consumer Discretionary $XLY to Overweight; 5700-5785 $SPX Gap Support Holding as we expected/discussed last week. 4.7-4.8% on 10y...

Vermilion Research

Weekly Stock Bullfinder - Week of 1/15

As we begin 2024, the past few week have been consumed with media chatter over the launch of new bitcoin ETF’s with predictions this would unleash...

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Pre-IPO TecDo Technology - The Investment Logic, the Concerns and the Outlook

​TecDo's AI-driven model offers value-sharing through technology, leading to higher valuation than Mobvista but lower than AppLovin. But...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Amagi Media Labs: Taking Media Companies to the Cloud Universe

​Amagi's media SaaS digitizes traditional content, supports global distributors. A Key player in live-event broadcasting and for small OTT...

Himanshu Dugar

TecDo's AI-driven model offers value-sharing through technology, leading to higher valuation than Mobvista but lower than AppLovin. But...

Amagi's media SaaS digitizes traditional content, supports global distributors. A Key player in live-event broadcasting and for small OTT...