Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>AppLovin, a leader in performance marketing, has recently announced its first-quarter 2025 financial results, highlighting its robust growth trajectory despite external challenges.</li><li>The company has navigated market volatility, such as short-seller scrutiny and broader economic conditions, by focusing on emerging opportunities in the advertising sector.</li><li>This quarter is especially significant due to its strategic decision to divest its games business entirely, further sharpening its focus on advertising technology.</li></ul>

AppLovin, a leader in performance marketing, has recently announced its first-quarter 2025 financial results, highlighting its robust growth trajectory despite external challenges.The company has navigated market volatility, such as short-seller scrutiny and broader economic conditions, by focusing on emerging opportunities in the advertising sector.This quarter is especially significant due to its strategic decision to divest its games business entirely, further sharpening its focus on advertising technology.

AppLovin Breaks Out of Gaming—Here’s How Its Non-Gaming Ad Surge Is Supercharging Revenues!

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher, ORTEX

Dimitris Ioannidis

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/applovin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32989:1" rel="noopener">AppLovin (APP US)</a> is forecasted to replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/discover-financial-services" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11966:1" rel="noopener">Discover Financial Services (DFS US)</a> in S&amp;P500 on 19 May following <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/capital-one-financial-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:255:1" rel="noopener">Capital One's</a> approved acquisition.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crh-plc-054117b2-cd70-470a-9efc-8f6fab2c83ec" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28655:1" rel="noopener">CRH (CRH US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coinbase-global-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32227:1" rel="noopener">Coinbase Global (COIN US)</a> are forecasted to be added by June-July following the expected acquisitions of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kellogg-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16090:1" rel="noopener">Kellogg Co (K US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ansys-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15473:1" rel="noopener">Ansys Inc (ANSS US)</a>. </li>
<li>Zero changes are forecasted for S&amp;P500 at the June 2025 review due to limited strong addition candidates which will be selected as replacements of upcoming acquisitions.</li>
</ul>



AppLovin (APP US) is forecasted to replace Discover Financial Services (DFS US) in S&amp;P500 on 19 May following Capital One's approved acquisition.

CRH (CRH US) and Coinbase Global (COIN US) are forecasted to be added by June-July following the expected acquisitions of Kellogg Co (K US) and Ansys Inc (ANSS US). 
Zero changes are forecasted for S&amp;P500 at the June 2025 review due to limited strong addition candidates which will be selected as replacements of upcoming acquisitions.


S&P500: Additions In May & June 2025 Following Capital One's Approved Acquisition

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arm-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21816:1" rel="noopener">ARM Holdings (ARM US)</a> has secured a place in the index and is no longer a deletion candidate thanks to the recent methodology changes.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/applovin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32989:1" rel="noopener">AppLovin (APP US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microstrategy-inc-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14717:1" rel="noopener">Microstrategy Inc Cl A (MSTR US)</a> are the main candidates for direct addition following their recent stock price surge.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dollar-tree-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10913:1" rel="noopener">Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR US)</a> is the favorable candidate for direct deletion in December with an additional but negligible probability of fast-exit in November.</li>
</ul>



ARM Holdings (ARM US) has secured a place in the index and is no longer a deletion candidate thanks to the recent methodology changes.

AppLovin (APP US) and Microstrategy Inc Cl A (MSTR US) are the main candidates for direct addition following their recent stock price surge.

Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR US) is the favorable candidate for direct deletion in December with an additional but negligible probability of fast-exit in November.


Nasdaq100 December 2024 Forecasts (Part 2): APP & MSTR Poised for Entry; DLTR & SMCI Set for Exit

<ul><li>AppLovin's financial performance for the fourth quarter of 2024 indicates a pivotal shift in its operational focus and growth strategy.</li><li>Over the quarter, total revenue increased by 44% year-over-year to $1.37 billion, fueled significantly by an expanded advertising business that brought in $999 million in revenue.</li><li>The company's adjusted EBITDA surged by 78% to $848 million, maintaining a healthy margin of 62%.</li></ul>

AppLovin's financial performance for the fourth quarter of 2024 indicates a pivotal shift in its operational focus and growth strategy.Over the quarter, total revenue increased by 44% year-over-year to $1.37 billion, fueled significantly by an expanded advertising business that brought in $999 million in revenue.The company's adjusted EBITDA surged by 78% to $848 million, maintaining a healthy margin of 62%.

AppLovin Corporation: Will Its Mid-Market Direct-to-Consumer Focus Pay Off?

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coinbase-global-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32227:1" rel="noopener">Coinbase Global (COIN US)</a> can be the unexpected addition by transition because of a high liquidity score and a close distance below the estimated transition threshold.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lennox-international-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16420:1" rel="noopener">Lennox International (LII US)</a> is the main candidate for addition by migration due to having the highest average mcap score and passing eligibility metrics.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/illumina-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8015:1" rel="noopener">Illumina Inc (ILMN US)</a> has a muted conviction for addition because of ineligible earnings and a recent deletion from the index.</li>
</ul>



Coinbase Global (COIN US) can be the unexpected addition by transition because of a high liquidity score and a close distance below the estimated transition threshold.

Lennox International (LII US) is the main candidate for addition by migration due to having the highest average mcap score and passing eligibility metrics.

Illumina Inc (ILMN US) has a muted conviction for addition because of ineligible earnings and a recent deletion from the index.


S&P500 December 2024 Forecast (Final): Flipping the COIN

United States

AppLovin Corporation provides software solutions. The Company offers an end-to-end software that optimizes monetization, and uses machine learning to make data-driven marketing decisions for profitable growth. AppLovin serves clients worldwide.

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AppLovin (APP US)

AppLovin Breaks Out of Gaming—Here’s How Its Non-Gaming Ad Surge Is Supercharging Revenues!

AppLovin, a leader in performance marketing, has recently announced its first-quarter 2025 financial results, highlighting its robust growth...

Baptista Research

S&P500: Additions In May & June 2025 Following Capital One's Approved Acquisition

COIN will be added to S&P500 at the close of 16 May as a replacement to the DFS acquisition. CRH has been removed from the addition candidates...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Nasdaq100 December 2024 Forecasts (Part 2): APP & MSTR Poised for Entry; DLTR & SMCI Set for Exit

Fast-Exit has been announced and will be implemented for DLTR at the close of 15 November 2024 where the stock will be deleted from Nasdaq100 and...

Dimitris Ioannidis

AppLovin Corporation: Will Its Mid-Market Direct-to-Consumer Focus Pay Off?

AppLovin's financial performance for the fourth quarter of 2024 indicates a pivotal shift in its operational focus and growth strategy. Over the...

Baptista Research

S&P500 December 2024 Forecast (Final): Flipping the COIN

Lennox International (LII US) - the top migration candidate - was announced as an addition to the S&P 500 on 18 December, soon after the quarterly...

Dimitris Ioannidis

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