Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Oct 31st (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD27.3bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in CSL, Mineral Resources, Bluescope Steel, ALS, Vicinity Centres Re.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Oct 31st (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD27.3bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in CSL, Mineral Resources, Bluescope Steel, ALS, Vicinity Centres Re.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Oct 31st): CSL, Mineral Resources, Bluescope Steel, ALS

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Palliser discloxes stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-chem-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3583:1" rel="noopener">LG Chem Ltd (051910 KS)</a>, and subsequently seeks to spill the board and undertake buybacks. </li>
<li>The family  increased their bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pacific-industrial-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6261:1" rel="noopener">Pacific Industrial (7250 JP)</a> by 42.4%, from ¥2,050 to ¥2,919/share. This now becomes a short-term rate of return trade. It will trade relatively tight.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/first-pacific-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:173:1" rel="noopener">First Pacific Co (142 HK)</a> appears to have squeezed the most out its unlisted subsidiary MPIC, for now, with the forthcoming Maynilad IPO.</li>
</ul>


Palliser discloxes stake in LG Chem Ltd (051910 KS), and subsequently seeks to spill the board and undertake buybacks. 
The family  increased their bid for Pacific Industrial (7250 JP) by 42.4%, from ¥2,050 to ¥2,919/share. This now becomes a short-term rate of return trade. It will trade relatively tight.

First Pacific Co (142 HK) appears to have squeezed the most out its unlisted subsidiary MPIC, for now, with the forthcoming Maynilad IPO.


Last Week In Event SPACE: LG Chem, Pacific Industrial, Critical Minerals, First Pacific

<ul>
<li>In<a href="https://skr.ma/4E7Ql" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Friendshoring Aussie Rare Earths</a>, I expected some critical mineral deals would be struck when Aussie PM Albanese and Trump met. And that is what unfolded.</li>
<li>The US and Australia will each "provide at least US$1bn in investments towards an US$$8.5bn pipeline of critical minerals projects in Australia and the U.S. over the next six months"</li>
<li>Separately, Albanese announced two priority projects in Australia, including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arafura-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16550:1" rel="noopener">Arafura Resources (ARU AU)</a>. </li>
</ul>


In Friendshoring Aussie Rare Earths, I expected some critical mineral deals would be struck when Aussie PM Albanese and Trump met. And that is what unfolded.
The US and Australia will each "provide at least US$1bn in investments towards an US$$8.5bn pipeline of critical minerals projects in Australia and the U.S. over the next six months"
Separately, Albanese announced two priority projects in Australia, including Arafura Resources (ARU AU). 


The U.S./Aussie Bilateral Framework On Critical Minerals

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lynas-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20374:1" rel="noopener">Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU)</a>'s stock price has more than doubled in the last few months as equity markets rally, the rare earth boom continues, and export restrictions are imposed.</li>
<li>The significant increase in market cap and free float market cap should result in the stock being added to a global index in November.</li>
<li>There will be positioning for the inclusion (and that partly explains the recent run-up in the stock). But with export controls continuing, there could be further upside.</li>
</ul>



Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU)'s stock price has more than doubled in the last few months as equity markets rally, the rare earth boom continues, and export restrictions are imposed.
The significant increase in market cap and free float market cap should result in the stock being added to a global index in November.
There will be positioning for the inclusion (and that partly explains the recent run-up in the stock). But with export controls continuing, there could be further upside.


Lynas Rare Earths (LYC AU): Global Index Inclusion & Passive Flows as Rare Earths Get Rarer

<ul>
<li>Last week, rare-earth play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lynas-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20374:1" rel="noopener">Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU)</a> squared away a fully underwritten A$750mn placement (56.6mn shares, 6.1% of shares outstanding) at A$13.25/share, a 10% discount to last close. </li>
<li>Gina Rinehart, Lynas' second largest shareholders with ~8.2%, took up her compliment. </li>
<li>Placement proceeds will be applied to streamlining ops, expanding its stockpiles/capacity, and investing downstream into magnet makers.</li>
</ul>


Last week, rare-earth play Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU) squared away a fully underwritten A$750mn placement (56.6mn shares, 6.1% of shares outstanding) at A$13.25/share, a 10% discount to last close. 
Gina Rinehart, Lynas' second largest shareholders with ~8.2%, took up her compliment. 
Placement proceeds will be applied to streamlining ops, expanding its stockpiles/capacity, and investing downstream into magnet makers.


Lynas (LYC AU) Targets Vertical Expansion

Australia

Arafura Rare Earths Ltd is a mineral exploration and development company operating solely in the Northern Territory of Australia. Principal commodities include rare earths, phosphate, gold, nickel, and vanadium. Arafura Rare Earths serves customers worldwide.

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Arafura Rare Earths (ARU AU)

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Oct 31st): CSL, Mineral Resources, Bluescope Steel, ALS

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in CSL, Mineral Resources, Bluescope Steel, ALS,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Last Week In Event SPACE: LG Chem, Pacific Industrial, Critical Minerals, First Pacific

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

The U.S./Aussie Bilateral Framework On Critical Minerals

Under this framework, the US and Oz will each "provide at least US$1bn in investments towards an US$$8.5bn pipeline of critical minerals projects...

David Blennerhassett

Lynas Rare Earths (LYC AU): Global Index Inclusion & Passive Flows as Rare Earths Get Rarer

Export controls on rare earths have pushed Lynas' stock higher. That should lead to global index inclusion in Nov and local index upward migration...

Brian Freitas

Lynas (LYC AU) Targets Vertical Expansion

Lynas is up massively over the past year, and especially recently. Yet as the no 1 rare-earth play outside China - and now very cashed up - it's a...

David Blennerhassett

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