Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Keiyo announced a large (9.2% of shares out) ToSTNeT-3 buyback for tomorrow morning at JPY 855/share. </li>
<li>Normally this would be an occasion for looking at the significant accretion. </li>
<li>This time there are possible offsets which are less encouraging.</li>
</ul>


Keiyo announced a large (9.2% of shares out) ToSTNeT-3 buyback for tomorrow morning at JPY 855/share. 
Normally this would be an occasion for looking at the significant accretion. 
This time there are possible offsets which are less encouraging.


Very Large Keiyo (8168 JP) Buyback NOT Necessarily Bullish

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

<ul>
<li>JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed in the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted market-value-weighted (capped) index composed of 400 constituents. </li>
<li>A periodic review is conducted by the Index providers, the JPX Group and Nikkei Inc, in August every year. </li>
<li>Below is a look at potential Inclusions and Removals for the JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebalance to come in August 2022 based on trading data as of end-November 2021.</li>
</ul>


JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed in the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted market-value-weighted (capped) index composed of 400 constituents. 
A periodic review is conducted by the Index providers, the JPX Group and Nikkei Inc, in August every year. 
Below is a look at potential Inclusions and Removals for the JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebalance to come in August 2022 based on trading data as of end-November 2021.


JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebalance 2022: Leaderboard End-Nov 2021

Index Rebalance

<div><p>JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks whose main market is the TSE1, TSE2, JASDAQ, and Mothers sections (which will become the Prime Market, Standard Market, or Growth Market next April) of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. This is a free-float-adjusted market-value-weighted (capped) index composed of 400 constituents selected based on several factors including market capitalization, trading value, operating profits, and ROE.</p></div><div><p>A periodic review is conducted by the Index providers, the JPX Group and Nikkei Inc, in August every year. This review is conducted using the final business day of June as the base date. </p></div><div><p>Quiddity provides quantitative research on pre-event basket strategies surrounding this Index Rebalance event and others. Below is a look at potential Inclusions and Removals for the JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebalance to come in August 2022 based on trading data as of end-October 2021.</p></div>

JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks whose main market is the TSE1, TSE2, JASDAQ, and Mothers sections (which will become the Prime Market, Standard Market, or Growth Market next April) of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. This is a free-float-adjusted market-value-weighted (capped) index composed of 400 constituents selected based on several factors including market capitalization, trading value, operating profits, and ROE.A periodic review is conducted by the Index providers, the JPX Group and Nikkei Inc, in August every year. This review is conducted using the final business day of June as the base date. Quiddity provides quantitative research on pre-event basket strategies surrounding this Index Rebalance event and others. Below is a look at potential Inclusions and Removals for the JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebalance to come in August 2022 based on trading data as of end-October 2021.

JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebalance 2022: Leader Board End-Oct 2021

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Japan requires retail developers to submit copious amounts of documentation to open any store over 1,000 sqm. In the past five years, there have been 2,505 applications for these larger developments, 750 of them anchored by drugstores, and more than 400 by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosmos-pharmaceutical-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3797:1" rel="noopener">Cosmos Pharmaceutical (3349 JP)</a> alone. The figures show that it is drugstores that are expanding more than any other retail sector.</p>

Japan requires retail developers to submit copious amounts of documentation to open any store over 1,000 sqm. In the past five years, there have been 2,505 applications for these larger developments, 750 of them anchored by drugstores, and more than 400 by Cosmos Pharmaceutical (3349 JP) alone. The figures show that it is drugstores that are expanding more than any other retail sector.

Drugstores Leads Large Store Openings in Japan Led by Cosmos Pharma

<p>Leading home centre group <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dcm-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13042:1" rel="noopener">Dcm Holdings (3050 JP)</a> announced it will acquire <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shimachu-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5235:1" rel="noopener">Shimachu Co Ltd (8184 JP)</a>, the seventh largest chain, in November. The move will catapult DCM back to the top of the ranking.</p>
<p>The deal could also provide a catalyst for further consolidation in a sector that’s long overdue for more after remaining static for much of the past 15 years. While the drugstore and homecentre sectors are very different, they do share one similarity: the leaders dominate in certain territories but none are true national retailers. In drugstores, national coverage through M&amp;A has been happening in the last two years but in homecentres only two firms are cross-regional.</p>
<p>While the leading 10 chains had a 65.5%, share and the top 30 more than 90% in FY2019, to scale effectively against competition from all sides, true national leaders will have to emerge.</p>
<p>The proposed takeover is also an expression of the current flux in the homecentre market as consumers increase further their consumption of home decoration and home improvement category. Although this is a long-term trend, homecentre retailers were slow to exploit this, leaving the field to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitori-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20386:1" rel="noopener">Nitori Holdings (9843 JP)</a> and other dedicated home decoration retailers.</p>
<p>There are now more signs of the sector leaders doing more to widen private label merchandise ranges to take a slice of this growing market, and some are even launching dedicated chains (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/targeting-nitori-cainz-follows-workman-s-success-into-homeware-retailing-with-style-factory-chain" target="_blank" rel="noopener">see this insight for a detailed look at the new threat to Nitori from Cainz</a>, the unlisted homecentre sector leader – at least until DCM absorbs Shimachu). See this separate insight for more on this. Shimachu will be a key help to DCM in targeting this market given its more consumer-oriented history.</p>
<p>I.e. this is not just another old-style Japan retail case of expansion for the sake of it, but a genuinely interesting and useful strategic deal.</p>

Leading home centre group Dcm Holdings (3050 JP) announced it will acquire Shimachu Co Ltd (8184 JP), the seventh largest chain, in November. The move will catapult DCM back to the top of the ranking.
The deal could also provide a catalyst for further consolidation in a sector that’s long overdue for more after remaining static for much of the past 15 years. While the drugstore and homecentre sectors are very different, they do share one similarity: the leaders dominate in certain territories but none are true national retailers. In drugstores, national coverage through M&amp;A has been happening in the last two years but in homecentres only two firms are cross-regional.
While the leading 10 chains had a 65.5%, share and the top 30 more than 90% in FY2019, to scale effectively against competition from all sides, true national leaders will have to emerge.
The proposed takeover is also an expression of the current flux in the homecentre market as consumers increase further their consumption of home decoration and home improvement category. Although this is a long-term trend, homecentre retailers were slow to exploit this, leaving the field to Nitori Holdings (9843 JP) and other dedicated home decoration retailers.
There are now more signs of the sector leaders doing more to widen private label merchandise ranges to take a slice of this growing market, and some are even launching dedicated chains (see this insight for a detailed look at the new threat to Nitori from Cainz, the unlisted homecentre sector leader – at least until DCM absorbs Shimachu). See this separate insight for more on this. Shimachu will be a key help to DCM in targeting this market given its more consumer-oriented history.
I.e. this is not just another old-style Japan retail case of expansion for the sake of it, but a genuinely interesting and useful strategic deal.

A New Era of Home Centre Consolidation Starts as DCM Buys Shimachu

Japan

Arclands Corporation operates home centers. The Company mainly sells home improvement products, household utensils, car and leisure products, gardening supplies, and other products. Arclands also operates restaurants management, DIY(Do It Yourself) products sales, real estate development, and other businesses.

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Arclands Corporation (9842 JP)

Very Large Keiyo (8168 JP) Buyback NOT Necessarily Bullish

Keiyo announced a large buyback for tomorrow AM. Big accretion is usually bullish but Keiyo is rich to peers, and it is not clear where incremental...

Travis Lundy

JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebalance 2022: Leaderboard End-Nov 2021

A discussion on potential Inclusions and Removals for the JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebalance to come in August 2022 based on trading data as of end-November...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebalance 2022: Leader Board End-Oct 2021

In this insight, we take a look at the potential Inclusions and Removals for the JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebalance to come in August 2022 based on trading...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Drugstores Leads Large Store Openings in Japan Led by Cosmos Pharma

Some analysts think the drugstore sector in Japan is saturated. As the latest govt. data shows, the sector has led in large store expansion in the...

Michael Causton

A New Era of Home Centre Consolidation Starts as DCM Buys Shimachu

Leading home centre group DCM announced it will acquire Shimachu, the seventh largest chain, in November. The move will catapult DCM back to the...

Michael Causton

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