Private Markets, Angel and Secondary Investing, Sacra

Sacra

Private Markets, Angel and Secondary Investing

Bringing transparency to private markets so investors, founders, and employees can build on conviction. Sacra delivers deeply researched insights on the private companies shaping tomorrow's markets. By surfacing the data, context, and operator perspective that are missing from private markets today, we help secondary buyers and sellers price equity accurately and unlock liquidity for the people building these businesses.

Private Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Schwab's acquisition of Forge, Morgan Stanley's acquisition of EquityZen, and Goldman Sachs's acquisition of Industry Ventures have validated the thesis that incumbent wealth and brokerage platforms see private markets as a core growth vector, creating demand for B2B infrastructure companies like Monark &amp; Zanbato (pre-IPO), Alpaca (crypto), and iCapital (private credit) that can standardize the backend for the long tail of brokerages and RIAs entering the space.</li>
<li>Robinhood Ventures is launching as a publicly traded closed-end fund holding private stocks, but such funds have historically struggled to scale—like Destiny (NYSE: DXYZ) Fund at under $500M AUM, ARK Innovation ETF (BATS: ARKK) venture fund at a few hundred million, and Private Shares Fund (NASDAQ: PIIVX) at roughly $1.2B—because retail investors overwhelmingly want single-asset exposure to specific companies like SpaceX or Anthropic, not diversified baskets that inevitably trade at a discount or premium to NAV.</li>
<li>Beyond single-stock pre-IPO SPVs, evergreen fund distribution is emerging as the next major driver of private market AUM, particularly in the RIA channel, where advisors are looking to build model portfolios with "alt sleeves" that include private equity, private credit, and venture exposure through funds that continuously raise capital and manage liquidity through redemptions.</li>
</ul>


Schwab's acquisition of Forge, Morgan Stanley's acquisition of EquityZen, and Goldman Sachs's acquisition of Industry Ventures have validated the thesis that incumbent wealth and brokerage platforms see private markets as a core growth vector, creating demand for B2B infrastructure companies like Monark &amp; Zanbato (pre-IPO), Alpaca (crypto), and iCapital (private credit) that can standardize the backend for the long tail of brokerages and RIAs entering the space.
Robinhood Ventures is launching as a publicly traded closed-end fund holding private stocks, but such funds have historically struggled to scale—like Destiny (NYSE: DXYZ) Fund at under $500M AUM, ARK Innovation ETF (BATS: ARKK) venture fund at a few hundred million, and Private Shares Fund (NASDAQ: PIIVX) at roughly $1.2B—because retail investors overwhelmingly want single-asset exposure to specific companies like SpaceX or Anthropic, not diversified baskets that inevitably trade at a discount or premium to NAV.
Beyond single-stock pre-IPO SPVs, evergreen fund distribution is emerging as the next major driver of private market AUM, particularly in the RIA channel, where advisors are looking to build model portfolios with "alt sleeves" that include private equity, private credit, and venture exposure through funds that continuously raise capital and manage liquidity through redemptions.


Ben Haber, CEO Of Monark, On Why 2026 Is The Year Of Alts

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>While the SPX remains bullish above 7580-7629 support, we're becoming near-term cautious on the Russell 2000 (IWM) and we remain near-term cautious on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) and A.I. areas.</li>
<li>As discussed last week, we believe the Aug4 and Aug12 gap fills suggest more consolidation is likely; not only have the odds increased that A.I. areas test their July lows... </li>
<li>...but the lower highs that have formed could be an early sign that they could break below their July lows in SOXX, CHAT, NCLD, DTCR, and EUV</li>
</ul>


While the SPX remains bullish above 7580-7629 support, we're becoming near-term cautious on the Russell 2000 (IWM) and we remain near-term cautious on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) and A.I. areas.
As discussed last week, we believe the Aug4 and Aug12 gap fills suggest more consolidation is likely; not only have the odds increased that A.I. areas test their July lows... 
...but the lower highs that have formed could be an early sign that they could break below their July lows in SOXX, CHAT, NCLD, DTCR, and EUV


Warning Signs; Buying Energy and Health Care; Still Cautious on QQQ and Now Also IWM

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), which has remained in place since 4/22/25, aside from one week(11/19/25-11/25/25) when we went neutral.</li>
<li>We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6824 on SPX, $610 on QQQ, and $245 on IWM continue to hold. Intermediate-term, still bullish above 6480-6520</li>
<li>SPX gap down (resistance at 6910-6940, Staples at 4-month RS highs, and more are giving us reason for caution in the near-term, though we still view pullbacks as a buy</li>
</ul>


We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), which has remained in place since 4/22/25, aside from one week(11/19/25-11/25/25) when we went neutral.
We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6824 on SPX, $610 on QQQ, and $245 on IWM continue to hold. Intermediate-term, still bullish above 6480-6520
SPX gap down (resistance at 6910-6940, Staples at 4-month RS highs, and more are giving us reason for caution in the near-term, though we still view pullbacks as a buy


Reason for Near-Term Caution? 10Y Treasury Yield Above 4.20%; Upgrading Energy and Staples

<ul>
<li>We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on the SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), in place since 4/22/25, aside from one week when we flipped to neutral.</li>
<li>We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX, $580-$583 on QQQ, and $245 on IWM continue to hold.</li>
<li>Signs of impending upside are evident with the Russell 2000 and many Sectors/areas of the market breaking out (more on that below).</li>
</ul>


We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on the SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), in place since 4/22/25, aside from one week when we flipped to neutral.
We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX, $580-$583 on QQQ, and $245 on IWM continue to hold.
Signs of impending upside are evident with the Russell 2000 and many Sectors/areas of the market breaking out (more on that below).


Breakouts Continue: IWM, ARKK, SMH, URA, EEM, WGMI, NLR; Upgrading Discretionary to Market Weight

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and we will maintain our bullish outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is above 6028-6059.</li>
<li>Short-Term supports on SPX include 6480-6520, 6450, 6400-6410, 6340-6360, 6200, 6100-6150, and 6028-6059; buy pullbacks</li>
<li>The list of areas re-emerging as leadership has meaningfully expanded to include ARKK, ARKW, uranium (URA), hydrogen (HYDR), quantum computing (IONQ, RGTI, QUBT, QBTS), and other themes including IPOs/A.I./nuclear/robotics/drones/autonomous driving/bitcoin</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and we will maintain our bullish outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is above 6028-6059.
Short-Term supports on SPX include 6480-6520, 6450, 6400-6410, 6340-6360, 6200, 6100-6150, and 6028-6059; buy pullbacks
The list of areas re-emerging as leadership has meaningfully expanded to include ARKK, ARKW, uranium (URA), hydrogen (HYDR), quantum computing (IONQ, RGTI, QUBT, QBTS), and other themes including IPOs/A.I./nuclear/robotics/drones/autonomous driving/bitcoin


High Growth Areas Re-Emerging as Leadership; Remain Overweight Growth; Bullish Outlook Intact

United States

ARK Innovation ETF is an actively managed exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The Fund will invest in equity securities of companies relevant to the theme of disruptive innovation. Relevant themes are those that rely on or benefit from the development of new products or services in scientific research relating to Genomics Revolution, Web x.0, and Industrial Innovation.

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ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK US)

Ben Haber, CEO Of Monark, On Why 2026 Is The Year Of Alts

Tell us about this round and the vision behind bringing in strategic investors like F-Prime who deeply understand capital markets...

Sacra

Warning Signs; Buying Energy and Health Care; Still Cautious on QQQ and Now Also IWM

Warning Signs $RSP; Remain Overweight and Buy Energy $XLE and Health Care $XLV; Still Cautious on $QQQ and Now Also $IWM; Downgrading Utilities...

Vermilion Research

Reason for Near-Term Caution? 10Y Treasury Yield Above 4.20%; Upgrading Energy and Staples

Reason for Near-Term Caution? $SPX $QQQ 10-Year Treasury Yield Breaking Above 4.20%; Upgrading Energy $XLE $RSPG and Staples $XLP to market weight,...

Vermilion Research

Breakouts Continue: IWM, ARKK, SMH, URA, EEM, WGMI, NLR; Upgrading Discretionary to Market Weight

Breakouts on $IWM $ARKK $SMH $SOXX $URA $EEM $WGMI $DTCR $NLR $XLB $XLI $REMX $QTUM signal impending upside ahead; Upgrading Discretionary to...

Vermilion Research

High Growth Areas Re-Emerging as Leadership; Remain Overweight Growth; Bullish Outlook Intact

High Growth Areas Re-Emerging as Leadership; Remain Overweight Growth; Bullish Outlook Intact on $SPX $QQQ $IWM. $ARKK $URA $HYDR $IONQ $OKLO $BBAI...

Vermilion Research

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