Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The coronavirus is rampaging across Japan again, and the Japanese government is considering extending the state of emergency declared in and around the Tokyo area until the end of February. The Suga administration is also considering declaring a state of emergency in other parts of the country that are continuing to see a high number of coronavirus cases.</li>
<li>As a result, holding the Tokyo Olympics as planned in July 2021 with the attendance of fans is becoming increasing unlikely. Additionally, an article on Nikkei stated that Florida requested the International Olympic Committee (IOC) to consider relocating the 2021 Games to Florida, although the IOC denies such claims.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asahi-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10482:1" rel="noopener">Asahi Group Holdings (2502 JP)</a>, a <a target="_blank">Gold Partner </a>in the Tokyo Olympics and the sole sponsor in the Beer &amp; Wine category at the Tokyo Olympics, is expected to lose the most compared to Japanese beer companies like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kirin-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16977:1" rel="noopener">Kirin Holdings (2503 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sapporo-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14085:1" rel="noopener">Sapporo Holdings (2501 JP)</a> if the Olympics is held behind closed doors or relocated.</li>
</ul>


The coronavirus is rampaging across Japan again, and the Japanese government is considering extending the state of emergency declared in and around the Tokyo area until the end of February. The Suga administration is also considering declaring a state of emergency in other parts of the country that are continuing to see a high number of coronavirus cases.
As a result, holding the Tokyo Olympics as planned in July 2021 with the attendance of fans is becoming increasing unlikely. Additionally, an article on Nikkei stated that Florida requested the International Olympic Committee (IOC) to consider relocating the 2021 Games to Florida, although the IOC denies such claims.

Asahi Group Holdings (2502 JP), a Gold Partner in the Tokyo Olympics and the sole sponsor in the Beer &amp; Wine category at the Tokyo Olympics, is expected to lose the most compared to Japanese beer companies like Kirin Holdings (2503 JP) and Sapporo Holdings (2501 JP) if the Olympics is held behind closed doors or relocated.


Long Kirin/​Short Asahi While Tokyo Olympics Hangs In Doubt

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<p>2020 marked our second full year of operations as an Independent Research Company, and our fifth year covering Equity Capital Markets (ECM). While the year started off on a precarious note for ECM, it ended with very strong momentum. Even as IPOs have hogged the limelight in 2020, we actually ended up covering more than twice the number of placements as IPOs. </p><p>We ended 2020 with an accuracy rate of 72.7% across 88 IPOs that we covered and 70.1% across 174 placements. While our placements hit rate improved, our IPO hit rate took a dip from 2019.</p><p>For those not familiar with our coverage, we aim to cover all IPOs and placements with a minimum deal size of US$100m across Asia-Pacific (ex-Korea), including China ADRs.</p>

2020 marked our second full year of operations as an Independent Research Company, and our fifth year covering Equity Capital Markets (ECM). While the year started off on a precarious note for ECM, it ended with very strong momentum. Even as IPOs have hogged the limelight in 2020, we actually ended up covering more than twice the number of placements as IPOs. We ended 2020 with an accuracy rate of 72.7% across 88 IPOs that we covered and 70.1% across 174 placements. While our placements hit rate improved, our IPO hit rate took a dip from 2019.For those not familiar with our coverage, we aim to cover all IPOs and placements with a minimum deal size of US$100m across Asia-Pacific (ex-Korea), including China ADRs.

Aequitas 2020 IPOs and Placements Performance - IPOs in the Limelight but Placements Stole the Show

<p>Pfizer and BioNTech’s announcement regarding the success rate of over 90% for its OCVID-19 vaccine kickstarted a strong rally in stock markets around the world. Since the announcement of the interim data of the Phase 3 study of the COVID-19 vaccine on 9<sup>th</sup> November 2020, Japan’s Topix index has rallied by 7.1%.</p><p>Share prices of Japan’s two biggest beer makers, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kirin-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16977:1" rel="noopener">Kirin Holdings (2503 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asahi-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10482:1" rel="noopener">Asahi Group Holdings (2502 JP)</a> have gained by 22.8% and 25.8% respectively since the announcement. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sapporo-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14085:1" rel="noopener">Sapporo Holdings (2501 JP)</a>, whose EV is just 14% of Kirin’s and 10% of Asahi’s, increased 13.9% during the post-announcement period.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/176/993/original/image_54568104321607357503773.png?1607357505" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="176993"></figure>

Pfizer and BioNTech’s announcement regarding the success rate of over 90% for its OCVID-19 vaccine kickstarted a strong rally in stock markets around the world. Since the announcement of the interim data of the Phase 3 study of the COVID-19 vaccine on 9th November 2020, Japan’s Topix index has rallied by 7.1%.Share prices of Japan’s two biggest beer makers, Kirin Holdings (2503 JP) and Asahi Group Holdings (2502 JP) have gained by 22.8% and 25.8% respectively since the announcement. Sapporo Holdings (2501 JP), whose EV is just 14% of Kirin’s and 10% of Asahi’s, increased 13.9% during the post-announcement period.

Japanese Beer Pair Trade: Long Sapporo/Short Asahi

<p>On 21<sup>st</sup> November 2020, Nikkei reported that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bega-cheese-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7272:1" rel="noopener">Bega Cheese Ltd (BGA AU)</a> will acquire <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kirin-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16977:1" rel="noopener">Kirin Holdings (2503 JP)</a>’s Australian subsidiary, Lion Dairy &amp; Drinks for an estimated valuation of more than ¥40.0 billion, 13% discount to the November 2019 valuation.</p><p>Please refer below links for more details regarding the sale of Lion Dairy &amp; Drinks business.</p><ul>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kirin-completes-the-sale-of-lion-dairy-and-drinks-business-amidst-pressure-from-activist-investor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kirin Completes the Sale of Lion Dairy and Drinks Business Amidst Pressure from Activist Investor</a></li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sour-china-australia-diplomatic-relations-halts-china-mengniu-dairy-s-buyout-of-lion-dairy-drinks" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Sour China:Australia Diplomatic Relations Halts China Mengniu Dairy’s Buyout of Lion Dairy &amp; Drinks</a> </li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kirin-restarts-ldd-sale-after-china-mengniu-deal-falls-through" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kirin Restarts LDD Sale After China Mengniu Deal Falls Through</a></li>
</ul>

On 21st November 2020, Nikkei reported that Bega Cheese Ltd (BGA AU) will acquire Kirin Holdings (2503 JP)’s Australian subsidiary, Lion Dairy &amp; Drinks for an estimated valuation of more than ¥40.0 billion, 13% discount to the November 2019 valuation.Please refer below links for more details regarding the sale of Lion Dairy &amp; Drinks business.
Kirin Completes the Sale of Lion Dairy and Drinks Business Amidst Pressure from Activist Investor

Sour China:Australia Diplomatic Relations Halts China Mengniu Dairy’s Buyout of Lion Dairy &amp; Drinks 
Kirin Restarts LDD Sale After China Mengniu Deal Falls Through


Bega Cheese to Acquire Kirin’s Lion Dairy & Drinks at a 13% Discount

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Quantitative Analysis

<div><p>The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.</p></div><div><p>Hong Kong saw shorts rise on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com (HK) (9618 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/idreamsky-technology-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5570:1" rel="noopener">iDreamsky Technology Limited (1119 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/galaxy-entertainment-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:806:1" rel="noopener">Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK)</a> while there was short covering on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-grp-co-of-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12880:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-healthcare-and-technology-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27008:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company Limited (1833 HK)</a> . Shorts increased in Real Estate, Energy and Consumer Staples and decreased in Financials, Consumer Discretionary, Health Care and Communication Services.</p></div><div>
<p>There was a lot of short covering in Japan during the week. Stocks that saw the most shorts covered were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asahi-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10482:1" rel="noopener">Asahi Group Holdings (2502 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiyo-yuden-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9924:1" rel="noopener">Taiyo Yuden (6976 JP)</a>, while shorts increased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nihon-m-a-center-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17616:1" rel="noopener">Nihon M&amp;A Center (2127 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yamato-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2:1" rel="noopener">Yamato Holdings (9064 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canon-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1:1" rel="noopener">Canon Inc (7751 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-ufj-financial-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:218:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)</a>. Sectorally, the most shorts were covered in Consumer Staples, Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary and Financials.</p>
<p>Stocks in Korea that saw an increase in shorts were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakao-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15002:1" rel="noopener">Kakao Corp (035720 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:991:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Inc (068270 KS)</a> while stocks that saw the most short covering were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/doosan-infracore-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3982:1" rel="noopener">Doosan Infracore (042670 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-display-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7145:1" rel="noopener">LG Display (034220 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netmarble-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22839:1" rel="noopener">Netmarble Corporation (251270 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-household-health-care" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6501:1" rel="noopener">LG Household &amp; Health Care (051900 KS)</a>.</p>
</div><div><p>Stocks in Taiwan that saw the highest increase in shorts were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/largan-precision-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9126:1" rel="noopener">Largan Precision (3008 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">TSMC (2330 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genius-electronic-optical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9632:1" rel="noopener">Genius Electronic Optical (3406 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hon-hai-precision-industry-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:745:1" rel="noopener">Hon Hai Precision Industry (2317 TT)</a> while shorts were covered on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yageo-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13212:1" rel="noopener">Yageo Corporation (2327 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/novatek-microelectronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10904:1" rel="noopener">Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-microelectronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6450:1" rel="noopener">United Microelectronics Corp (2303 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ase-technology-holding-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27270:1" rel="noopener">ASE Technology Holding Co Ltd (3711 TT)</a>. </p></div>

The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.Hong Kong saw shorts rise on JD.com (HK) (9618 HK), Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK), iDreamsky Technology Limited (1119 HK) and Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK) while there was short covering on Alibaba Group (9988 HK), Tencent Holdings (700 HK), Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK) and Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company Limited (1833 HK) . Shorts increased in Real Estate, Energy and Consumer Staples and decreased in Financials, Consumer Discretionary, Health Care and Communication Services.
There was a lot of short covering in Japan during the week. Stocks that saw the most shorts covered were Fast Retailing (9983 JP), Asahi Group Holdings (2502 JP), Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) and Taiyo Yuden (6976 JP), while shorts increased on Nihon M&amp;A Center (2127 JP), Yamato Holdings (9064 JP), Canon Inc (7751 JP) and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP). Sectorally, the most shorts were covered in Consumer Staples, Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary and Financials.
Stocks in Korea that saw an increase in shorts were Kakao Corp (035720 KS) and Celltrion Inc (068270 KS) while stocks that saw the most short covering were Doosan Infracore (042670 KS), LG Display (034220 KS), Netmarble Corporation (251270 KS) and LG Household &amp; Health Care (051900 KS).
Stocks in Taiwan that saw the highest increase in shorts were Largan Precision (3008 TT), TSMC (2330 TT), Genius Electronic Optical (3406 TT) and Hon Hai Precision Industry (2317 TT) while shorts were covered on Yageo Corporation (2327 TT), Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT), United Microelectronics Corp (2303 TT) and ASE Technology Holding Co Ltd (3711 TT). 

Asia Short Interest Weekly: JD, Xiaomi, Nihon M&A, Asahi, Toshiba, Kakao, Netmarble, Largan, Novatek

Japan

Asahi Group Holdings, Ltd. produces beer and other beverages including non-alcoholic drinks. The Company sells its products in Japan and overseas.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Asahi Group Holdings (2502 JP)

Long Kirin/Short Asahi While Tokyo Olympics Hangs In Doubt

Holding the Tokyo Olympics as planned in July 2021 with the attendance of fans is becoming increasing unlikely. Additionally, an article on Nikkei...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Aequitas 2020 IPOs and Placements Performance - IPOs in the Limelight but Placements Stole the Show

2020 marked our second year of operations as an Independent Research Company, and our fifth year covering ECM. In 2020 we had an accuracy rate of...

Sumeet Singh

Japanese Beer Pair Trade: Long Sapporo/Short Asahi

Pfizer and BioNTech’s announcement regarding the success rate of over 90% for its OCVID-19 vaccine kickstarted a strong rally in stock markets...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Bega Cheese to Acquire Kirin’s Lion Dairy & Drinks at a 13% Discount

On 21st November 2020, Nikkei reported that Bega Cheese will acquire Kirin’s Australian subsidiary, Lion Dairy & Drinks for an estimated valuation...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Asia Short Interest Weekly: JD, Xiaomi, Nihon M&A, Asahi, Toshiba, Kakao, Netmarble, Largan, Novatek

Highlighting changes in short interest across stocks in HK, Japan, Korea and Taiwan to pinpoint stocks/sectors that are being shorted or covered...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Long Kirin/​Short Asahi While Tokyo Olympics Hangs In Doubt

Holding the Tokyo Olympics as planned in July 2021 with the attendance of fans is becoming increasing unlikely. Additionally, an article on Nikkei...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Aequitas 2020 IPOs and Placements Performance - IPOs in the Limelight but Placements Stole the Show

2020 marked our second year of operations as an Independent Research Company, and our fifth year covering ECM. In 2020 we had an accuracy rate of...

Sumeet Singh

Japanese Beer Pair Trade: Long Sapporo/Short Asahi

Pfizer and BioNTech’s announcement regarding the success rate of over 90% for its OCVID-19 vaccine kickstarted a strong rally in stock markets...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Bega Cheese to Acquire Kirin’s Lion Dairy & Drinks at a 13% Discount

On 21st November 2020, Nikkei reported that Bega Cheese will acquire Kirin’s Australian subsidiary, Lion Dairy & Drinks for an estimated valuation...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Asia Short Interest Weekly: JD, Xiaomi, Nihon M&A, Asahi, Toshiba, Kakao, Netmarble, Largan, Novatek

Highlighting changes in short interest across stocks in HK, Japan, Korea and Taiwan to pinpoint stocks/sectors that are being shorted or covered...

Brian Freitas

Long Kirin/Short Asahi While Tokyo Olympics Hangs In Doubt