Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A double-dose of StubWorld today: <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-chemical-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12781:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Chemical (4188 JP)</a></strong> (MCG) is trading rich (implied stub &amp; simple ratio) to ~51%-held <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-sanso-holdings-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15756:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Sanso Holdings (4091 JP)</a></strong>.</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on MCG and Nippon Sanso are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%</li>
</ul>


A double-dose of StubWorld today: Mitsubishi Chemical (4188 JP) (MCG) is trading rich (implied stub &amp; simple ratio) to ~51%-held Nippon Sanso Holdings (4091 JP).
Preceding my comments on MCG and Nippon Sanso are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%


StubWorld: Mitsu Chem (4188 JP) Trading Rich To Nippon Sanso (4091 JP)

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. SPX reclaims 4000 level with 2nd day of gains; 8/11 SPX sectors up as VIX collapses; Fed Decision Day on Wed-Expect No surprises; INTEL headwinds on China curbs </li>
<li>JAPAN.  NKY Futs +0.6% vs Cash; USDJPY 132. 4; Japan set to rally after the Spring  transition break;US accepts Japan's EV subsidy appeal=+ve auto parts; More inflation support from govt. </li>
<li>NUGGET. Asahi Kasai - M&amp;A Gone Bad, Writedown, Struggles Remain. Future profitability of the LiB Separator business in question. </li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. SPX reclaims 4000 level with 2nd day of gains; 8/11 SPX sectors up as VIX collapses; Fed Decision Day on Wed-Expect No surprises; INTEL headwinds on China curbs 
JAPAN.  NKY Futs +0.6% vs Cash; USDJPY 132. 4; Japan set to rally after the Spring  transition break;US accepts Japan's EV subsidy appeal=+ve auto parts; More inflation support from govt. 
NUGGET. Asahi Kasai - M&amp;A Gone Bad, Writedown, Struggles Remain. Future profitability of the LiB Separator business in question. 


Good Morning Japan |SPX Reclaims 4000! NUGGET: Asahi Kasei-M&A Gone Bad, Writedown, Struggles Remain

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. Equity Risk-off ahead of NFP; Banks hit on default risk worries and Silvergate Collapse; Bitcoin hit hard (Silverate); Aggressive GM restructuring</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs -2.2% vs Cash; USDJPY Strengthens to 136.1 as pare risk ahead of Kuroda's final policy decision today;  MORE ACTIVIST WINS-Massive buyback from DNP;  Seven &amp; I Restructuring.</li>
<li>NUGGET. NISSAN, TAKING IT FROM ALL ANGLES. Nissan's bonds downgraded to junk this week; but its worse than you think..company faces serious headwinds.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. Equity Risk-off ahead of NFP; Banks hit on default risk worries and Silvergate Collapse; Bitcoin hit hard (Silverate); Aggressive GM restructuring
JAPAN. NKY Futs -2.2% vs Cash; USDJPY Strengthens to 136.1 as pare risk ahead of Kuroda's final policy decision today;  MORE ACTIVIST WINS-Massive buyback from DNP;  Seven &amp; I Restructuring.
NUGGET. NISSAN, TAKING IT FROM ALL ANGLES. Nissan's bonds downgraded to junk this week; but its worse than you think..company faces serious headwinds.


Good Morning Japan |EQUITY SELL OFF Ahead of NFP-Banks Bear Brunt; NUGGET: Nissan - Its Worse !

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Capital Markets

Shenzhen Senior Technology-A / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The poor earnings record for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhen-senior-technology-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29612:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhen Senior Technology Material (6067 HK)</a> is a major negative issue for the IPO. Its 1Q26 profit collapsed 59.2%.</li>
<li>The steep 57.3% H-share IPO discount to the current A-share is the fourth-lowest since 2025. Such a low valuation reflects the concerns about its outlook. </li>
<li>The IPO price implies a 91.1x FY26 PER, compared with the average of 75.3x for the A-share peers and 14.9x for global peers. Its PER are not attractive.</li>
</ul>


The poor earnings record for Shenzhen Senior Technology Material (6067 HK) is a major negative issue for the IPO. Its 1Q26 profit collapsed 59.2%.
The steep 57.3% H-share IPO discount to the current A-share is the fourth-lowest since 2025. Such a low valuation reflects the concerns about its outlook. 
The IPO price implies a 91.1x FY26 PER, compared with the average of 75.3x for the A-share peers and 14.9x for global peers. Its PER are not attractive.


Shenzhen Senior Technology Material (6067 HK) IPO: We Are Not Fans

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/116/923/original/2020-02-08_18-15-45.png?1581196263" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="116923"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/116/924/original/2020-02-09_06-34-51.png?1581197706" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="116924"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><div class="content-caption"></div><p><strong>OOOPS!</strong> - The 480 quarterly results announced on Friday subtracted a further 20 basis points from our Results Score. If the remaining 38% of companies continue this trend, the current quarter will equal CQ2019-1 and CQ2018-2 in seeing a 200 basis point Results Score decline. 169 forecasts or revision announcements added  5bps to the Forecast/Revision Score, supported by slight upward revisions from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27445:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Corp (9434 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/honda-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:154:1" rel="noopener">Honda Motor (7267 JP)</a>.  The Results Score has dipped below the Forecast/Revision Score for the first time since July 2016 and is a necessary precursor of the bottoming of the cycle. Japan is now in a recession and could see a decline in GDP for the calendar year. The market's current optimism (aided by the Bank of Japan's buy-the-dips support programme) is more appropriate to the middle of the cycle and, with two further poor earnings quarters ahead, suggests limited further upside. </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/116/925/original/2020-02-08_10-48-19.png?1581199859" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="116925"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>18x EARNINGS</strong> - Trailing-twelve-month (TTM) Operating Income for the composite of listed companies has declined to ¥57.4t, 10% below the peak of early 2019. TTM Net Income has declined by 20% over the same period, resulting in a 6.1 point increase in the market price-earnings ratio to 17.6 times.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/116/927/original/2020-02-08_10-55-21.png?1581200256" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="116927"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p style="text-align: left;"><strong>TTM RESULTS</strong> - TTM Operating Profits have been declining quarter-on-quarter for five straight quarters, and are 8.1% lower year-on-year. The Operating Margin has declined from 7.45% to 6.80%. TTM Revenues are now also falling and have only increased by 0.7% year-on-year.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/116/928/original/2020-02-08_10-59-00.png?1581200533" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="116928"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>FORECASTS</strong> - The year-on-year Operating Profit decline using current forecasts is 8.5%, while Revenues are flat. Revenue forecasts have been falling quarter-on-quarter for three quarters in a row. The 'uplift' from TTM to Forecast is just ¥3t for sales and ¥0.3t for OP. </p>

Source • Japan AnalyticsOOOPS! - The 480 quarterly results announced on Friday subtracted a further 20 basis points from our Results Score. If the remaining 38% of companies continue this trend, the current quarter will equal CQ2019-1 and CQ2018-2 in seeing a 200 basis point Results Score decline. 169 forecasts or revision announcements added  5bps to the Forecast/Revision Score, supported by slight upward revisions from Softbank Corp (9434 JP) and Honda Motor (7267 JP).  The Results Score has dipped below the Forecast/Revision Score for the first time since July 2016 and is a necessary precursor of the bottoming of the cycle. Japan is now in a recession and could see a decline in GDP for the calendar year. The market's current optimism (aided by the Bank of Japan's buy-the-dips support programme) is more appropriate to the middle of the cycle and, with two further poor earnings quarters ahead, suggests limited further upside. Source • Japan Analytics18x EARNINGS - Trailing-twelve-month (TTM) Operating Income for the composite of listed companies has declined to ¥57.4t, 10% below the peak of early 2019. TTM Net Income has declined by 20% over the same period, resulting in a 6.1 point increase in the market price-earnings ratio to 17.6 times.Source • Japan AnalyticsTTM RESULTS - TTM Operating Profits have been declining quarter-on-quarter for five straight quarters, and are 8.1% lower year-on-year. The Operating Margin has declined from 7.45% to 6.80%. TTM Revenues are now also falling and have only increased by 0.7% year-on-year.Source • Japan AnalyticsFORECASTS - The year-on-year Operating Profit decline using current forecasts is 8.5%, while Revenues are flat. Revenue forecasts have been falling quarter-on-quarter for three quarters in a row. The 'uplift' from TTM to Forecast is just ¥3t for sales and ¥0.3t for OP. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 7th February ▲2121 7267 5713 ▼ 5401 9616 3407

Japan

ASAHI KASEI CORPORATION produces synthetic fibers, industrial chemicals, petrochemicals, plastics (resins), and synthetic rubber.  The Company also operates and sells real estates, pharmaceuticals, medical equipments, electronics, construction materials, and consumer products.

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Asahi Kasei (3407 JP)

StubWorld: Mitsu Chem (4188 JP) Trading Rich To Nippon Sanso (4091 JP)

Nippon Sanso's ops are defensive and stable; but that steady-as-you-go story has lagged MCG's turnaround narrative & shift toward higher‑margin...

David Blennerhassett

Good Morning Japan |SPX Reclaims 4000! NUGGET: Asahi Kasei-M&A Gone Bad, Writedown, Struggles Remain

Japan is poised to rally after the Spring transition, as its stocks have taken a hit during the recent risk-off period. This has created many...

Mark Chadwick

Good Morning Japan |EQUITY SELL OFF Ahead of NFP-Banks Bear Brunt; NUGGET: Nissan - Its Worse !

NKY Futs -2.2% vs Cash; USDJPY Strengthens to 136.1 as pare risk ahead of Kuroda's final policy decision today; MORE ACTIVIST WINS-Massive buyback...

Mark Chadwick

Shenzhen Senior Technology Material (6067 HK) IPO: We Are Not Fans

Shenzhen Senior Technology Materials' poor earnings record and steep H-share IPO discount relative to A-share reflect concerns about its outlook....

Osbert Tang, CFA

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 7th February ▲2121 7267 5713 ▼ 5401 9616 3407

OOOPS! - The 480 quarterly results announced on Friday subtracted a further 20 basis points from our Results Score. If the remaining 38% of...

Campbell Gunn

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

StubWorld: Mitsu Chem (4188 JP) Trading Rich To Nippon Sanso (4091 JP)

Nippon Sanso's ops are defensive and stable; but that steady-as-you-go story has lagged MCG's turnaround narrative & shift toward higher‑margin...

David Blennerhassett

Good Morning Japan |SPX Reclaims 4000! NUGGET: Asahi Kasei-M&A Gone Bad, Writedown, Struggles Remain

Japan is poised to rally after the Spring transition, as its stocks have taken a hit during the recent risk-off period. This has created many...

Mark Chadwick

Good Morning Japan |EQUITY SELL OFF Ahead of NFP-Banks Bear Brunt; NUGGET: Nissan - Its Worse !

NKY Futs -2.2% vs Cash; USDJPY Strengthens to 136.1 as pare risk ahead of Kuroda's final policy decision today; MORE ACTIVIST WINS-Massive buyback...

Mark Chadwick

Shenzhen Senior Technology Material (6067 HK) IPO: We Are Not Fans

​Shenzhen Senior Technology Materials' poor earnings record and steep H-share IPO discount relative to A-share reflect concerns about its outlook....

Osbert Tang, CFA

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 7th February ▲2121 7267 5713 ▼ 5401 9616 3407

OOOPS! - The 480 quarterly results announced on Friday subtracted a further 20 basis points from our Results Score. If the remaining 38% of...

Campbell Gunn

Shenzhen Senior Technology Materials' poor earnings record and steep H-share IPO discount relative to A-share reflect concerns about its outlook....