Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Consumer Discretionary Select / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to believe that the bear market lows have already been established.</li>
<li>It remains to be seen whether the indexes will experience a meaningful pullback first, or whether we are already experiencing the initial leg of a new bull market.</li>
<li>Thus far, market indexes have ignored overbought conditions, which is historically a sign of strength during the initial leg of new bull markets.</li>
</ul>


We continue to believe that the bear market lows have already been established.
It remains to be seen whether the indexes will experience a meaningful pullback first, or whether we are already experiencing the initial leg of a new bull market.
Thus far, market indexes have ignored overbought conditions, which is historically a sign of strength during the initial leg of new bull markets.


Upgrading Discretionary to Overweight, Downgrading Energy & Health Care to Market Weight

Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Following panic selling that we have outlined over the past month, we finally saw panic buying last Friday in the form of 92% upside volume on the NYSE.</li>
<li>There is hope that this panic buying could signal a major bottom, but we still need to see more confirmation before declaring that the low is in.</li>
<li>We are watching the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) and the steep RS uptrends on Utilities (XLU) and Staples (XLP) for more confirmation that a major low is in place. Details below.</li>
</ul>


Following panic selling that we have outlined over the past month, we finally saw panic buying last Friday in the form of 92% upside volume on the NYSE.
There is hope that this panic buying could signal a major bottom, but we still need to see more confirmation before declaring that the low is in.
We are watching the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) and the steep RS uptrends on Utilities (XLU) and Staples (XLP) for more confirmation that a major low is in place. Details below.


Panic Buying Achieved, Waiting for More Confirmation of a Bottom;Buying Staples & Auto Dealers/Parts

Advanced Micro Devices / Technical Analysis

The market continues to send mixed signals and we remain cautious and selective, preferring large-caps over small-caps, growth over value, and defensives (Utilities, Staples, REITs, Health Care) over cyclical value (Energy, Materials, Manufacturing, Transportation, Financials). While market dynamics suggest a 5-15% pullback is in the cards, there continues to be an absence of breakdowns at the index and Sector level; even the weaker Sectors such as Energy and Transportation are not yet breaking down. Until we start to see breakdowns at the Sector and index level, we remain constructive overall.

The market continues to send mixed signals and we remain cautious and selective, preferring large-caps over small-caps, growth over value, and defensives (Utilities, Staples, REITs, Health Care) over cyclical value (Energy, Materials, Manufacturing, Transportation, Financials). While market dynamics suggest a 5-15% pullback is in the cards, there continues to be an absence of breakdowns at the index and Sector level; even the weaker Sectors such as Energy and Transportation are not yet breaking down. Until we start to see breakdowns at the Sector and index level, we remain constructive overall.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Buying Semiconductors, Auto Dealers, and Asset Mgmt/Custody Banks

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Morningstar and PitchBook hosted the 10th annual Management Behind the Moat Conference in Chicago on Nov. 7 and 8, offering our institutional clients an opportunity to engage with the management of 49 public companies we think have structural competitive advantages, or economic moats, as well as two private companies worth watching. This report distills the highlights from company presentations. A roster of all companies that participated in the conference, including those that held one-on-one meetings with investors, can be found on Page 2 of the attached document.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/069/790/original/img%201.JPG?1542165661" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="69790"></figure>

Morningstar and PitchBook hosted the 10th annual Management Behind the Moat Conference in Chicago on Nov. 7 and 8, offering our institutional clients an opportunity to engage with the management of 49 public companies we think have structural competitive advantages, or economic moats, as well as two private companies worth watching. This report distills the highlights from company presentations. A roster of all companies that participated in the conference, including those that held one-on-one meetings with investors, can be found on Page 2 of the attached document.

Morningstar Management Behind the Moat 2018: Conference Highlights

Rotation is alive and well. Once-dormant Sectors and Groups are helping propel the market to new highs. While Tech, the overachiever, continues to lead, we’re finally seeing the Energy  Sector contribute. And other economically sensitive Groups, like Casinos and Engineering &amp; Construction, are bullishly inflecting, confirming the risk-on message. Combined, this is (1) a positive sign for the market, and (2) actionable.In today’s report we highlight ideas within the following Groups: Engineering &amp; Construction, Semiconductors, and Auto Dealers.

Rotation is alive and well. Once-dormant Sectors and Groups are helping propel the market to new highs. While Tech, the overachiever, continues to lead, we’re finally seeing the Energy  Sector contribute. And other economically sensitive Groups, like Casinos and Engineering &amp; Construction, are bullishly inflecting, confirming the risk-on message. Combined, this is (1) a positive sign for the market, and (2) actionable.In today’s report we highlight ideas within the following Groups: Engineering &amp; Construction, Semiconductors, and Auto Dealers.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Cyclicals Continue to Lead; Energy Is Bottoming.

United States

Asbury Automotive Group Inc. is an automotive retailer operating franchises and dealership locations in the United States.  The Company offers new and used vehicles and related financing and insurance, vehicle maintenance and repair services, replacement parts, and service contracts.  Asbury's dealerships are primarily either luxury or mid-line import brands.

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Asbury Automotive (ABG US)

Upgrading Discretionary to Overweight, Downgrading Energy & Health Care to Market Weight

Upgrading Discretionary $XLY to Overweight, Downgrading Energy $XLE & Health Care $XLV to Market Weight; Many indexes with major bullish...

Vermilion Research

Panic Buying Achieved, Waiting for More Confirmation of a Bottom;Buying Staples & Auto Dealers/Parts

We finally saw panic buying last Friday in the form of 92% upside volume on the NYSE. There is hope that this panic buying could signal that a...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Buying Semiconductors, Auto Dealers, and Asset Mgmt/Custody Banks

Despite our overall cautious outlook, several areas are attractive and buyable, including: Semiconductors, Auto Dealers, and Asset Management...

Vermilion Research

Morningstar Management Behind the Moat 2018: Conference Highlights

Morningstar and PitchBook hosted the 10th annual Management Behind the Moat Conference in Chicago on Nov. 7 and 8, offering our institutional...

Morningstar, Inc.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Cyclicals Continue to Lead; Energy Is Bottoming.

Rotation is alive and well. Once-dormant Sectors and Groups are helping propel the market to new highs. While Tech, the overachiever, continues to...

Vermilion Research

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