Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

United Microelectronics Corp / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-microelectron-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11540:1" rel="noopener">United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US)</a> experiences approximately a 5-10% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) decline in 1Q25. For the full year of 2025, we anticipate a modest year-over-year (YoY) decline of around 5%.</li>
<li>We have observed some strength from Taiwanese Fabless companies, which could support the 1Q25 demand for UMC.  </li>
<li>It has been noted that mature wafer demand is not solely driven by China and may help offset the impacts of the US-China Trade War, benefiting foundries outside of China.</li>
</ul>



United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US) experiences approximately a 5-10% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) decline in 1Q25. For the full year of 2025, we anticipate a modest year-over-year (YoY) decline of around 5%.
We have observed some strength from Taiwanese Fabless companies, which could support the 1Q25 demand for UMC.  
It has been noted that mature wafer demand is not solely driven by China and may help offset the impacts of the US-China Trade War, benefiting foundries outside of China.


UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 1Q25 Outlook; Surprise Support of Taiwanese Fabless.

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>TSMC: +21.1% Premium; Spread Has Fallen From Previous Short Levels, Remains Elevated</li>
<li>UMC: -0.3% Discount; Middle of the Historical Trading Range, Not Compelling</li>
<li>ChipMOS: -1.2% Discount; Wait for Deeper Discount Before Going Long</li>
</ul>


TSMC: +21.1% Premium; Spread Has Fallen From Previous Short Levels, Remains Elevated
UMC: -0.3% Discount; Middle of the Historical Trading Range, Not Compelling
ChipMOS: -1.2% Discount; Wait for Deeper Discount Before Going Long


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Decline from Near Historical Highs; ChipMOS Discount

<ul>
<li>TSMC: +25.4% Premium; At Historical Highs, Good Level to Short the Spread</li>
<li>UMC: +2.1% Premium; Upper Level of Historical Range, Short Level</li>
<li>ASE: +5.4% Premium; Near-Term High However Likely Best to Wait for Higher Levels</li>
</ul>


TSMC: +25.4% Premium; At Historical Highs, Good Level to Short the Spread
UMC: +2.1% Premium; Upper Level of Historical Range, Short Level
ASE: +5.4% Premium; Near-Term High However Likely Best to Wait for Higher Levels


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC ADR Spread Near All-Time Highs; UMC at Upper End of Range

<ul>
<li>TSMC: 22.7% Premium; Good Level to Short the Spread Given Historical Trading Range</li>
<li>UMC: +0.2% Premium; Middle of Historical Trading Range; Short Interest Rises to New High</li>
<li>CHT: +0.5% Premium; Major Spike in Short Interest for the Local Taiwan Shares</li>
</ul>


TSMC: 22.7% Premium; Good Level to Short the Spread Given Historical Trading Range
UMC: +0.2% Premium; Middle of Historical Trading Range; Short Interest Rises to New High
CHT: +0.5% Premium; Major Spike in Short Interest for the Local Taiwan Shares


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread at Short Level; UMC and CHT Short Interest Spikes

<ul>
<li>TSMC: +23.5% Premium; Decent Level to Short Relative to Historical Trading Range</li>
<li>UMC: +0.1% Premium; Middle of the Historical Trading Range; Short Interest Rises Again</li>
<li>ASE: +3.5% Premium; Near Middle of Recent Range, Wait for Better Levels</li>
</ul>


TSMC: +23.5% Premium; Decent Level to Short Relative to Historical Trading Range
UMC: +0.1% Premium; Middle of the Historical Trading Range; Short Interest Rises Again
ASE: +3.5% Premium; Near Middle of Recent Range, Wait for Better Levels


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread At Decent Short Level; UMC Short Interest Rises Again

Taiwan

ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd. offers assembly and testing services. The Company provides outsourced assembly, semiconductor testing, semiconductor packaging, and other related services. ASE Technology Holding operates in Taiwan.

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ASE Technology Holding (ASX US)

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 1Q25 Outlook; Surprise Support of Taiwanese Fabless.

UMC expects a 5-10% QoQ decline in 1Q25, with a modest 5% YoY decline for 2025. Taiwanese Fabless companies may boost 1Q25 demand, while mature...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Decline from Near Historical Highs; ChipMOS Discount

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC ADR Spread Near All-Time Highs; UMC at Upper End of Range

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread at Short Level; UMC and CHT Short Interest Spikes

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread At Decent Short Level; UMC Short Interest Rises Again

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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