Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

ASE Technology Holding   / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6824 on SPX (up from 6480-6520) and $141.50 on ACWI-US (up from $134-135.70) continue to hold.</li>
<li>Signs of impending upside are evident with the ACWI-US and all the other MSCI global indexes (MSCI EAFE, ACWI ex-US, EM) breaking out (more on that below).</li>
<li>Our intermediate-term bullish outlook has been in place since our 5/14/25 Compass. Actionable themes include Technology and Industrials, focused in EM, Europe, and Japan.</li>
</ul>


We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6824 on SPX (up from 6480-6520) and $141.50 on ACWI-US (up from $134-135.70) continue to hold.
Signs of impending upside are evident with the ACWI-US and all the other MSCI global indexes (MSCI EAFE, ACWI ex-US, EM) breaking out (more on that below).
Our intermediate-term bullish outlook has been in place since our 5/14/25 Compass. Actionable themes include Technology and Industrials, focused in EM, Europe, and Japan.


Breakouts Galore in All MSCI Global Indexes; Bullish Outlook Intact

<ul>
<li>We continue to play the hand we have been dealt; i.e., riding the trend higher on the SPX and Nasdaq 100, and being overweight large-cap growth</li>
<li>Russell 1000 GrowthVs.Value ratio is breaking out from a 4-year base, suggesting growth's outperformance is likely to continue in the months ahead. Growth outperforming during bull markets is no surprise.</li>
<li>Latest bullish developments include the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQQE) breaking out from a 4-month base, while Discretionary (XLY) displays a 6-month base breakout and RS is reversing its YTD downtrend</li>
</ul>


We continue to play the hand we have been dealt; i.e., riding the trend higher on the SPX and Nasdaq 100, and being overweight large-cap growth
Russell 1000 GrowthVs.Value ratio is breaking out from a 4-year base, suggesting growth's outperformance is likely to continue in the months ahead. Growth outperforming during bull markets is no surprise.
Latest bullish developments include the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQQE) breaking out from a 4-month base, while Discretionary (XLY) displays a 6-month base breakout and RS is reversing its YTD downtrend


Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Tech Buys

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>AMD committed up to US$5bn to Anthropic against an order for up to 2 gigawatts of MI450 accelerators, the first training-scale commitment to a rack that is not NVIDIA's.</li>
<li>NVIDIA prepaid Amkor US$1.5bn to expand Arizona packaging and planned US$5bn to US$10bn of dark fiber, paying cash upfront for what it does not manufacture.</li>
<li>Korea's supply answer to a 2027 shortage is dated 2030: Samsung plans four new fabs, and SK Hynix reapproved a 7.1 trillion won expansion.</li>
</ul>


AMD committed up to US$5bn to Anthropic against an order for up to 2 gigawatts of MI450 accelerators, the first training-scale commitment to a rack that is not NVIDIA's.
NVIDIA prepaid Amkor US$1.5bn to expand Arizona packaging and planned US$5bn to US$10bn of dark fiber, paying cash upfront for what it does not manufacture.
Korea's supply answer to a 2027 shortage is dated 2030: Samsung plans four new fabs, and SK Hynix reapproved a 7.1 trillion won expansion.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: AMD Wins First Training Chip Order Outside NVIDIA; NVDA Prepays Amkor's Capex

Advanced Micro Devices / Technical Analysis

<p>The market continues to send mixed signals and we remain cautious and selective, preferring large-caps over small-caps, growth over value, and defensives (Utilities, Staples, REITs, Health Care) over cyclical value (Energy, Materials, Manufacturing, Transportation, Financials). While market dynamics suggest a 5-15% pullback is in the cards, there continues to be an absence of breakdowns at the index and Sector level; even the weaker Sectors such as Energy and Transportation are not yet breaking down. Until we start to see breakdowns at the Sector and index level, we remain constructive overall.</p>

The market continues to send mixed signals and we remain cautious and selective, preferring large-caps over small-caps, growth over value, and defensives (Utilities, Staples, REITs, Health Care) over cyclical value (Energy, Materials, Manufacturing, Transportation, Financials). While market dynamics suggest a 5-15% pullback is in the cards, there continues to be an absence of breakdowns at the index and Sector level; even the weaker Sectors such as Energy and Transportation are not yet breaking down. Until we start to see breakdowns at the Sector and index level, we remain constructive overall.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Buying Semiconductors, Auto Dealers, and Asset Mgmt/Custody Banks

<ul>
<li>TSMC: +16.1% Premium; Within Historical Range; Can Stay Long the Spread</li>
<li>UMC: +2.5% Premium; Within Historical Range; Short Spread if Increases Further</li>
<li>ASE: +2.2% Premium; Within Historical Range; No Active Trade Signal</li>
</ul>


TSMC: +16.1% Premium; Within Historical Range; Can Stay Long the Spread
UMC: +2.5% Premium; Within Historical Range; Short Spread if Increases Further
ASE: +2.2% Premium; Within Historical Range; No Active Trade Signal


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: ADR Spreads Staged Major Reversion

Taiwan

ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd. offers assembly and testing services. The Company provides outsourced assembly, semiconductor testing, semiconductor packaging, and other related services. ASE Technology Holding operates in Taiwan.

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ASE Technology Holding (ASX US)

Breakouts Galore in All MSCI Global Indexes; Bullish Outlook Intact

Breakouts Galore in All MSCI Global Indexes (MSCI $ACWI $ACWX $EFA and $EEM) and tons of countries; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight...

Vermilion Research

Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Tech Buys

Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX $QQQ $IWM; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth $IWF $NVDA $AVGO $TSM $AMD $ASML $AAPL $MSFT...

Vermilion Research

Taiwan Tech Weekly: AMD Wins First Training Chip Order Outside NVIDIA; NVDA Prepays Amkor's Capex

AMD commits $5bn to Anthropic for it to buy AI training accelerators, NVIDIA prepaying for Arizona packaging, Samsung and SK Hynix plan expansions...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

U.S. Equity Strategy: Buying Semiconductors, Auto Dealers, and Asset Mgmt/Custody Banks

Despite our overall cautious outlook, several areas are attractive and buyable, including: Semiconductors, Auto Dealers, and Asset Management...

Vermilion Research

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: ADR Spreads Staged Major Reversion

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Breakouts Galore in All MSCI Global Indexes; Bullish Outlook Intact

Breakouts Galore in All MSCI Global Indexes (MSCI $ACWI $ACWX $EFA and $EEM) and tons of countries; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight...

Vermilion Research

Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Tech Buys

Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX $QQQ $IWM; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth $IWF $NVDA $AVGO $TSM $AMD $ASML $AAPL $MSFT...

Vermilion Research

Taiwan Tech Weekly: AMD Wins First Training Chip Order Outside NVIDIA; NVDA Prepays Amkor's Capex

​AMD commits $5bn to Anthropic for it to buy AI training accelerators, NVIDIA prepaying for Arizona packaging, Samsung and SK Hynix plan expansions...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

U.S. Equity Strategy: Buying Semiconductors, Auto Dealers, and Asset Mgmt/Custody Banks

Despite our overall cautious outlook, several areas are attractive and buyable, including: Semiconductors, Auto Dealers, and Asset Management...

Vermilion Research

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: ADR Spreads Staged Major Reversion

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

AMD commits $5bn to Anthropic for it to buy AI training accelerators, NVIDIA prepaying for Arizona packaging, Samsung and SK Hynix plan expansions...