Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Technical Analysis

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>We believe there is significant evidence that global equities (MSCI ACWI) have bottomed, and a year-end rally has begun. Buys highlighted in global Technology, Discretionary, Real Estate, and Steel/Mining.</li>
<li>We discussed in our prior Int'l Compass (11/2/23) how the false breakdown in MSCI ACWI (local currency) was bullish, and a potent rally has ensued. We expect more upside ahead.</li>
<li>Now getting bullish 3+ month downtrend reversals and false breakdowns in the EURO STOXX 50, ACWI-US, MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), MSCI EM (EEM-US), and EAFE (EFA-US). Major risk-on signals everywhere.</li>
</ul>


We believe there is significant evidence that global equities (MSCI ACWI) have bottomed, and a year-end rally has begun. Buys highlighted in global Technology, Discretionary, Real Estate, and Steel/Mining.
We discussed in our prior Int'l Compass (11/2/23) how the false breakdown in MSCI ACWI (local currency) was bullish, and a potent rally has ensued. We expect more upside ahead.
Now getting bullish 3+ month downtrend reversals and false breakdowns in the EURO STOXX 50, ACWI-US, MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), MSCI EM (EEM-US), and EAFE (EFA-US). Major risk-on signals everywhere.


Year-End Rally Underway; Many Bullish Reversals/False Breakdowns; Buys: Tech, Cons. Disc., RE, Steel

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Aug 14th. The aggregated holding was USD2,228.6bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD5,449mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in MediaTek, Nanya Technology, Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing, TSMC, Yageo.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Aug 14th. The aggregated holding was USD2,228.6bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD5,449mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in MediaTek, Nanya Technology, Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing, TSMC, Yageo.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Aug 14th): MediaTek, Nanya Technology, TSMC, Yageo

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Aug 14th. The aggregated short interest was USD43.9bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Shin Kong Financial, Nan Ya Plastics, Quanta Computer, Zhen Ding Technology, ASE Industrial.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Aug 14th. The aggregated short interest was USD43.9bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Shin Kong Financial, Nan Ya Plastics, Quanta Computer, Zhen Ding Technology, ASE Industrial.


TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Aug 14th): Shin Kong Financial, Nan Ya Plastics, Quanta Computer

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>ASE, the global #1 OSAT company, reported Q1’23 revenues of NT$130,891 million, in line with expectations, down 26% sequentially and 9% YoY</li>
<li>Overall equipment utilisation rate fell to 60% during the first quarter</li>
<li>Q1 was the trough, but so too will be Q2</li>
</ul>


ASE, the global #1 OSAT company, reported Q1’23 revenues of NT$130,891 million, in line with expectations, down 26% sequentially and 9% YoY
Overall equipment utilisation rate fell to 60% during the first quarter
Q1 was the trough, but so too will be Q2


ASE Q1'23 Revenues Decline 26% QoQ, Q2'23 Outlook Flat Sequentially

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our February 6, 2023 EM Strategy, we discussed that we were buyers of the MSCI EM (EEM-US) on a pullback to the 50-day MA. </li>
<li>The pullback went a bit deeper but managed to hold at our $37.50 line-in-the-sand which we discussed in our recent ETF Pathfinder reports (Mar. 6 and Mar. 20, 2023).</li>
<li>The EEM-US displays a bullish 2-month downtrend reversal- add exposure. Signs continue to point to a topping DXY, and a declining DXY has historically resulted in EM outperformance (vs. EAFE).</li>
</ul>


In our February 6, 2023 EM Strategy, we discussed that we were buyers of the MSCI EM (EEM-US) on a pullback to the 50-day MA. 
The pullback went a bit deeper but managed to hold at our $37.50 line-in-the-sand which we discussed in our recent ETF Pathfinder reports (Mar. 6 and Mar. 20, 2023).
The EEM-US displays a bullish 2-month downtrend reversal- add exposure. Signs continue to point to a topping DXY, and a declining DXY has historically resulted in EM outperformance (vs. EAFE).


MSCI EM $EEM 2-Month Downtrend Reversal at Support -- Add Exposure. Upgrading Taiwan to Overweight

Taiwan

ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd. offers assembly and testing services. The Company provides outsourced assembly, semiconductor testing, semiconductor packaging, and other related services. ASE Technology Holding operates in Taiwan.

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ASE Technology Holding (3711 TT)

Year-End Rally Underway; Many Bullish Reversals/False Breakdowns; Buys: Tech, Cons. Disc., RE, Steel

There is significant evidence that global equities $ACWI have bottomed, and a year-end rally has begun. It all started when we discussed that the...

Vermilion Research

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Aug 14th): MediaTek, Nanya Technology, TSMC, Yageo

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in MediaTek, Nanya Technology, Powerchip...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Aug 14th): Shin Kong Financial, Nan Ya Plastics, Quanta Computer

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Shin Kong Financial, Nan Ya Plastics, Quanta...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

ASE Q1'23 Revenues Decline 26% QoQ, Q2'23 Outlook Flat Sequentially

ASE Q1 revenue down 26% QoQ, 9% YoY. Equipment utilisation fell to 60% during the quarter. Q1 was the trough, Q2 will be the same. Modest return to...

William Keating

MSCI EM $EEM 2-Month Downtrend Reversal at Support -- Add Exposure. Upgrading Taiwan to Overweight

Signs continue to point to a topping $DXY, and a declining DXY has historically resulted in EM outperformance (vs. $EAFE). Many ideas in China/Hong...

Vermilion Research

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