MD, Leaf & Ledger Limited

Leaf & Ledger Limited

Formed in 2024, Leaf & Ledger is a European advisory and research firm serving institutional investors and managers. We focus on real assets and private markets, with public-market read-throughs where material. Our work emphasises valuation signals, market structure, and execution topics that translate technical assessment into underwriting and strategy.

Insight That Moves Capital

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>
 Release sparks sell-off: Vietnam’s government inspectorate released findings October 17th. Despite widespread anticipation of the findings, Vietnamese equities were down sharply following the release.</li>
<li>
 Fault lines and risk nodes: 5 listed banks, Masan entities, T&amp;T Group, project vehicles, and Novaland affiliates. Issues include disclosure failures, off-plan proceeds use, arrears, and single-buyer concentrations.</li>
<li>
 Signal and policy path: Expect a stricter rulebook and more active supervision. The core system remains intact, but governance discounts rise, and issuance windows narrow as controls are rebuilt.</li>
</ul>



 Release sparks sell-off: Vietnam’s government inspectorate released findings October 17th. Despite widespread anticipation of the findings, Vietnamese equities were down sharply following the release.

 Fault lines and risk nodes: 5 listed banks, Masan entities, T&amp;T Group, project vehicles, and Novaland affiliates. Issues include disclosure failures, off-plan proceeds use, arrears, and single-buyer concentrations.

 Signal and policy path: Expect a stricter rulebook and more active supervision. The core system remains intact, but governance discounts rise, and issuance windows narrow as controls are rebuilt.


Vietnam Equities: GI Bond Probe Triggers 8% Index Slide

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

<ul>
<li>Vietnam has achieved a significant milestone, with over one-third of Asia Ex-Japan funds now invested in the country for the first time in our holdings history.</li>
<li>Average fund weights hit a new high of 1.01% last month, as an additional 5.1% of funds opened exposure in 2024.</li>
<li>Notable fund-level activity in 2024 includes new positions from JP Morgan and Fidelity, with the most optimistic investors assigning over a 10% weight to Vietnam.</li>
</ul>


Vietnam has achieved a significant milestone, with over one-third of Asia Ex-Japan funds now invested in the country for the first time in our holdings history.
Average fund weights hit a new high of 1.01% last month, as an additional 5.1% of funds opened exposure in 2024.
Notable fund-level activity in 2024 includes new positions from JP Morgan and Fidelity, with the most optimistic investors assigning over a 10% weight to Vietnam.


Vietnam:  2024 Rotation Drives Record Fund Ownership

Marketing Director, Asia Frontier Capital

Asia Frontier Capital

Marketing Director

Investing in high growth Asian frontier economies.

Asia Frontier Capital Ltd. is a pioneering fund management company based in Hong Kong that specializes in investing in high growth Asian frontier economies by managing the AFC Asia Frontier Fund , AFC Iraq Fund and the AFC Vietnam Fund.

The AFC Asia Frontier Fund invests in public equities of Asian frontier countries that are seeing increasing consumption due to favorable demographic trends, rising incomes and high GDP growth. The fund invests in listed equities of companies that have their principal business activities in Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, Iraq, Laos, Maldives, Mongolia, Myanmar (Burma), Nepal, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Sri Lanka and Vietnam. The AFC Asia Frontier Fund is positioned to take advantage of the continuing economic shifts in these countries and offers high returns combined with significant diversification opportunities. This fund is directed by the founder and CEO of Asia Frontier Capital, Thomas Hugger, who has been investing in frontier markets across Asia and Africa for more than 20 years.

The AFC Iraq Fund was launched on the 26th June 2015 and aims to achieve long-term capital appreciation for investors by capturing value and growth potential in the post conflict high-growth & resource rich Iraq market. The fund emphasises long term investment horizon to truly capture the opportunity in Iraq. The fund's investable universe consists of locally listed companies that have their principal business activities in Iraq as well as foreign listed companies that have the majority of the business in Iraq as a whole including the prosperous Kurdish Region of Iraq (KRI). The AFC Iraq Fund offers access to investments in post conflict recovery potential of Iraq, including the KRI, and/or stability in its territory. The AFC Iraq Fund is managed by Asia Frontier Capital (Iraq) Limited, Cayman Islands under the executive leadership team of Thomas Hugger (CEO & Fund Manager) and Ahmed Tabaqchali (CIO) who have more than 47 years of investment experience as well as an extensive background covering global, emerging, frontier and MENA markets.

The AFC Vietnam Fund invests exclusively in listed Vietnamese equities to capture value in growth companies with a focus on the small to medium size companies. This market segment offers a unique investment opportunity as the valuation gap between large- and small-cap stocks in Vietnam is presently much wider than in comparable neighboring markets and the valuations are significantly depressed versus their regional peers. The fund adopts a fundamental-quantitative approach and employs an in-house earnings model to identify attractive companies where we see high growth opportunities. In conjunction with targeting the maximum upside potential the portfolio has been structured to mitigate corporate government and liquidity risks. The fund invests in a diversified portfolio of 70-90 attractively valued companies to carefully control concentration risk.  This approach allows the fund to sell, or buy, positions without having a significant market impact. The fund is directed under the executive leadership of Thomas Hugger and Andreas Vogelsanger who have more than 50 years combined experience managing investments in frontier markets, Asia and around the world.

For more information about the fund, management team and investment strategy please contact us at info@asiafrontiercapital.com.

<ul><li>The year began on a strong positive note for global equity markets and most AFC funds also had a positive return at the start of the year.</li><li>Investor sentiment continues to improve as confidence grows that we are at the peak of global inflation and interest rate hikes.</li><li>This was also evident in the less aggressive 25 basis point increase in interest rates by the U.S. Fed on 1st February 2023, as well as less hawkish messaging from the U.S. Fed in the past few weeks.</li></ul>

The year began on a strong positive note for global equity markets and most AFC funds also had a positive return at the start of the year.Investor sentiment continues to improve as confidence grows that we are at the peak of global inflation and interest rate hikes.This was also evident in the less aggressive 25 basis point increase in interest rates by the U.S. Fed on 1st February 2023, as well as less hawkish messaging from the U.S. Fed in the past few weeks.

Asian Frontier Markets Start the Year Strong - Asia Frontier Capital (AFC) - January 2023 Update

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

We continue to be encouraged by market dynamics that are supportive of an ongoing equity bull market. Additionally, there continues to be an absence of breakdowns on the major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, &amp; EAFE). As a result, our outlook remains bullish.  In this report we show some love to various Sectors that have not been big attention-grabbers for us in recent months, but still have plenty of attractive stocks. The stocks highlighted hail from a variety of countries. Sectors covered include Services, Communications, Staples, Financials, and Utilities.

We continue to be encouraged by market dynamics that are supportive of an ongoing equity bull market. Additionally, there continues to be an absence of breakdowns on the major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, &amp; EAFE). As a result, our outlook remains bullish.  In this report we show some love to various Sectors that have not been big attention-grabbers for us in recent months, but still have plenty of attractive stocks. The stocks highlighted hail from a variety of countries. Sectors covered include Services, Communications, Staples, Financials, and Utilities.

Global Equity Strategy: Market Dynamics Remain Positive, And So Are We

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
 Fitch Bank Downgrades: Fitch Ratings (Fitch) has finally gotten around to revising the outlook of the long-term issuer default ratings from Positive to Stable on two state-owned banks and a wholly foreign-owned bank in Vietnam, and the outlook of two JSC banks from Stable to Negative;</li>
<li>
Fitch Concerns: The downgrades stem from sharply lower growth in Vietnam associated with the corona virus pandemic which likely will negatively impact commercial bank credit profiles over the near-term.  Thin capital buffers are another area of concern, as some major banks still struggling to comply with local Basel II requirements. Credit stresses, even if not all are reported as impaired during the relief period, suggest that credit impairments accruing; and</li>
<li>
Our Continued Concerns: We continue to find that net new NPL growth ranges between 50%-150% per annum over the past five years through 2019 – despite the stated NPL figure declining on a growthy loan portfolio and placement of problem loans below the line. Capital requirements under Basel II being extremely difficult to attain/maintain without prospects of capital raise or shrinking their balance sheets, commercial banks are set to continue to struggle to grow.</li>
</ul>



 Fitch Bank Downgrades: Fitch Ratings (Fitch) has finally gotten around to revising the outlook of the long-term issuer default ratings from Positive to Stable on two state-owned banks and a wholly foreign-owned bank in Vietnam, and the outlook of two JSC banks from Stable to Negative;

Fitch Concerns: The downgrades stem from sharply lower growth in Vietnam associated with the corona virus pandemic which likely will negatively impact commercial bank credit profiles over the near-term.  Thin capital buffers are another area of concern, as some major banks still struggling to comply with local Basel II requirements. Credit stresses, even if not all are reported as impaired during the relief period, suggest that credit impairments accruing; and

Our Continued Concerns: We continue to find that net new NPL growth ranges between 50%-150% per annum over the past five years through 2019 – despite the stated NPL figure declining on a growthy loan portfolio and placement of problem loans below the line. Capital requirements under Basel II being extremely difficult to attain/maintain without prospects of capital raise or shrinking their balance sheets, commercial banks are set to continue to struggle to grow.


Vietnam

Asia Commercial Bank is one of the leading private commercial banks in Vietnam, offering a wide range of financial products and services to personal and business customers. These services include current and savings accounts, various loans, credit and debit cards, trade finance, foreign currency trading, and insurance products. The bank was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.

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Asia Commercial Bank (ACB VN)

Vietnam Equities: GI Bond Probe Triggers 8% Index Slide

Vietnam's government inspectorate private debt probe release sparks equity sell-off, as governance concerns in listed banks and companies signal...

EC

Vietnam: 2024 Rotation Drives Record Fund Ownership

Vietnam has achieved a significant milestone, with over one-third of Asia Ex-Japan funds now invested in the country for the first time in our...

Steven Holden

Asian Frontier Markets Start the Year Strong - Asia Frontier Capital (AFC) - January 2023 Update

The year began on a strong positive note for global equity markets and most AFC funds also had a positive return at the start of the year.

Asia Frontier Capital

Global Equity Strategy: Market Dynamics Remain Positive, And So Are We

We show some love to various Sectors that have not been big attention-grabbers for us in recent months, including Services, Communications,...

Vermilion Research

Vietnam – Fitch Downgrades Banks

Fitch Bank Downgrades: Fitch Ratings (Fitch) has finally gotten around to revising the outlook of the long-term issuer default ratings from...

Thomas J. Monaco

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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Vietnam Equities: GI Bond Probe Triggers 8% Index Slide

​Vietnam's government inspectorate private debt probe release sparks equity sell-off, as governance concerns in listed banks and companies signal...

EC

Vietnam: 2024 Rotation Drives Record Fund Ownership

Vietnam has achieved a significant milestone, with over one-third of Asia Ex-Japan funds now invested in the country for the first time in our...

Steven Holden

Asian Frontier Markets Start the Year Strong - Asia Frontier Capital (AFC) - January 2023 Update

The year began on a strong positive note for global equity markets and most AFC funds also had a positive return at the start of the year.

Asia Frontier Capital

Global Equity Strategy: Market Dynamics Remain Positive, And So Are We

We show some love to various Sectors that have not been big attention-grabbers for us in recent months, including Services, Communications,...

Vermilion Research

Vietnam – Fitch Downgrades Banks

Fitch Bank Downgrades: Fitch Ratings (Fitch) has finally gotten around to revising the outlook of the long-term issuer default ratings from...

Thomas J. Monaco

Vietnam's government inspectorate private debt probe release sparks equity sell-off, as governance concerns in listed banks and companies signal...