Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Event-Driven

<p>In this insight, we highlight 26 Korean companies that are/may be seeking to find new owners through M&amp;As in 2021. Key sectors of M&amp;A in Korea in 2021 include consumer and industrial. We also provide a review of our M&amp;A research in 2020. We wrote 29 reports about the M&amp;As in 2020. The M&amp;A market in Korea is estimated to be about 35 trillion won in 2020, down 8% YoY. The local media have mentioned that the M&amp;A market in Korea could be nearly <a href="https://finance.naver.com/news/news_read.nhn?article_id=0004711778&amp;office_id=009&amp;mode=LSS2D&amp;type=0&amp;section_id=101&amp;section_id2=258&amp;section_id3=&amp;date=20201207&amp;page=3" target="_blank" rel="noopener">45 trillion won</a> in 2021, up 29% YoY, which would surpass the all-time high of 38 trillion won in 2019.  </p>

In this insight, we highlight 26 Korean companies that are/may be seeking to find new owners through M&amp;As in 2021. Key sectors of M&amp;A in Korea in 2021 include consumer and industrial. We also provide a review of our M&amp;A research in 2020. We wrote 29 reports about the M&amp;As in 2020. The M&amp;A market in Korea is estimated to be about 35 trillion won in 2020, down 8% YoY. The local media have mentioned that the M&amp;A market in Korea could be nearly 45 trillion won in 2021, up 29% YoY, which would surpass the all-time high of 38 trillion won in 2019.  

Review of Our M&A Research in 2020 & Korea M&A Market Outlook in 2021: What’s For Sale?

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<p><strong>On November 16th, Korean Air Lines stated that it will acquire Asiana Airlines for 1.8 trillion won ($1.6 billion) that would create the 10th biggest airline by fleets in the world. </strong>In this deal, the Korean Development Bank (KDB) will help Hanjin Group Chairman Cho Won-Tae &amp; related parties retain control of Hanjin Kal and the Korean Air.</p>
<p>However, things are not so simple as they initially look on paper. This is mainly because in 2021 and beyond, the global air travel industry may not return quickly to the pre-COVID-19 environment. The overall media coverage of this event has been positive. However, we believe that there could be a bigger risk that things may not turn out so rosy for the combined companies. <strong>Rather, there is an increasing likelihood that the combined Korean Air and Asiana Airlines may become another KEPCO (which is controlled by the Korean government).  </strong></p>
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On November 16th, Korean Air Lines stated that it will acquire Asiana Airlines for 1.8 trillion won ($1.6 billion) that would create the 10th biggest airline by fleets in the world. In this deal, the Korean Development Bank (KDB) will help Hanjin Group Chairman Cho Won-Tae &amp; related parties retain control of Hanjin Kal and the Korean Air.
However, things are not so simple as they initially look on paper. This is mainly because in 2021 and beyond, the global air travel industry may not return quickly to the pre-COVID-19 environment. The overall media coverage of this event has been positive. However, we believe that there could be a bigger risk that things may not turn out so rosy for the combined companies. Rather, there is an increasing likelihood that the combined Korean Air and Asiana Airlines may become another KEPCO (which is controlled by the Korean government).  


Korean Air + Asiana Airlines - Is This Becoming Another KEPCO?

Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

<p>Hanjin Kal and KDB are currently in talks over an Asiana Airlines takeover.</p><p>The widely reported deal structure is quite similar to the previous one proposed to the HDC Group.</p><p>The KDB will make a capital injection (in the form of 3rd party allocation rights offer) to Hanjin Kal, which will then use the money to buy a 30.77% stake in Asiana.</p>

Hanjin Kal and KDB are currently in talks over an Asiana Airlines takeover.The widely reported deal structure is quite similar to the previous one proposed to the HDC Group.The KDB will make a capital injection (in the form of 3rd party allocation rights offer) to Hanjin Kal, which will then use the money to buy a 30.77% stake in Asiana.

Hanjin Kal Buying Asiana? KDB Dilution-Adj. Shareholding & Likely Market Impact

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Melco International Development / Event-Driven

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<p>This week in StubWorld ...</p>
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<p>Lawrence Ho has all-but sidestepped family succession issues since his father passed away earlier this year - Stanley fathered 17 children with four women, and I count at last three ongoing legal actions by the siblings  - and appears intent on developing his own brand. With <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/melco-international-development-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:809:1" rel="noopener">Melco International Development (200 HK)</a> languishing around its NAV lows, will he simply continue to (gradually) increase his stake in Melco, or propose a major restructuring. </p>
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<p>Preceding my comments on Toyota and Melco, are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</p>
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<p>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.</p>
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This week in StubWorld ...



Lawrence Ho has all-but sidestepped family succession issues since his father passed away earlier this year - Stanley fathered 17 children with four women, and I count at last three ongoing legal actions by the siblings  - and appears intent on developing his own brand. With Melco International Development (200 HK) languishing around its NAV lows, will he simply continue to (gradually) increase his stake in Melco, or propose a major restructuring. 



Preceding my comments on Toyota and Melco, are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.





These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.




StubWorld: Melco (200 HK) At NAV Trough Levels

Cross Asset Strategy

<h2>Review of Top 10 Issues Related to Korean Stock Market, Economy, &amp; Politics in September 2020</h2><ul>
<li><div class="content-highlight"><strong>Value &amp; GARP outperforming Growth</strong></div></li>
<li><strong>Big Hit Entertainment IPO </strong></li>
<li><strong>Kakao Games IPO </strong></li>
<li><strong>IPOs of Kakao Pay, Kakao Bank, &amp; Kakao Page in 2021 </strong></li>
<li><strong>A merger of the three Celltrion companies </strong></li>
<li><strong>LG Chem's carve-out of its rechargeable battery business </strong></li>
<li><strong>Big rights offerings by Doosan Heavy Industries &amp; Doosan Fuel Cell </strong></li>
<li><strong>HDC Hyundai Development gives up on Asiana Airlines </strong></li>
<li><strong>Nikola's founder resigns - Impact on Hanwha Solutions</strong></li>
<li><strong>Samsung Electronics (Dividends) </strong></li>
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Review of Top 10 Issues Related to Korean Stock Market, Economy, &amp; Politics in September 2020
Value &amp; GARP outperforming Growth
Big Hit Entertainment IPO 
Kakao Games IPO 
IPOs of Kakao Pay, Kakao Bank, &amp; Kakao Page in 2021 
A merger of the three Celltrion companies 
LG Chem's carve-out of its rechargeable battery business 
Big rights offerings by Doosan Heavy Industries &amp; Doosan Fuel Cell 
HDC Hyundai Development gives up on Asiana Airlines 
Nikola's founder resigns - Impact on Hanwha Solutions
Samsung Electronics (Dividends) 


Korea Stock Market Monthly Recap #52 (September 2020)

South Korea

Asiana Airlines, Inc. provides air cargo and passenger transportation services throughout South Korea and overseas.  The Company also offers airline catering and on-flight duty free shopping services and operates aircraft leasing business.

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Asiana Airlines (020560 KS)

Review of Our M&A Research in 2020 & Korea M&A Market Outlook in 2021: What’s For Sale?

In this insight, we highlight 26 Korean companies that are/may be seeking to find new owners through M&As in 2021. We also provide a review of our...

Douglas Kim

Korean Air + Asiana Airlines - Is This Becoming Another KEPCO?

Perhaps the worst-case scenario is that the combined Korean Air + Asiana Airlines becomes another KEPCO, which would be culminated with KDB taking...

Douglas Kim

Hanjin Kal Buying Asiana? KDB Dilution-Adj. Shareholding & Likely Market Impact

Hanjin Kal and KDB are reportedly in talks over taking over Asiana Airlines. This insight examines KDB fund injection-adjusted shareholding % and...

Sanghyun Park

StubWorld: Melco (200 HK) At NAV Trough Levels

his week in StubWorld ... Commercial real estate (in the world's most expensive city) - check. Hotel exposure - check. Marine services -...

David Blennerhassett

Korea Stock Market Monthly Recap #52 (September 2020)

Review of Top 10 Issues Related to Korean Stock Market, Economy, Politics in September 2020

Douglas Kim

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