Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-Japan in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on Sony, Sumitomo Metal Mining, Toyota Motor, SoftBank, Nissan Motor, Kioxia.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-Japan in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on Sony, Sumitomo Metal Mining, Toyota Motor, SoftBank, Nissan Motor, Kioxia.


MS-Japan Index Earning Revision (Feb): Sony, Sumitomo Metal Mining, Toyota Motor, SoftBank

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Today during market hours, Toyota Asset Preparatory Co (TAPCO) announced an amendment to its Tender Offer Registration Statement (for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a> tender) on EDINET. TDNet confirmation followed. </li>
<li>TAPCO extends, and <em>plans to bump from ¥18,800 to ¥20,600, +1.5% vs last, assuming banks agree</em>. That's above 31Dec25 BVPS but below real-time BVPS, and far below Transaction Structure-adjusted BVPS.</li>
<li>I admit to being surprised. And disappointed. It's admittedly Big Bumpitrage but not a "watershed moment." TAPCO is buying TICO at &lt;0.8x book, and the Opco for &lt;0.15x book.</li>
</ul>


Today during market hours, Toyota Asset Preparatory Co (TAPCO) announced an amendment to its Tender Offer Registration Statement (for the Toyota Industries (6201 JP) tender) on EDINET. TDNet confirmation followed. 
TAPCO extends, and plans to bump from ¥18,800 to ¥20,600, +1.5% vs last, assuming banks agree. That's above 31Dec25 BVPS but below real-time BVPS, and far below Transaction Structure-adjusted BVPS.
I admit to being surprised. And disappointed. It's admittedly Big Bumpitrage but not a "watershed moment." TAPCO is buying TICO at &lt;0.8x book, and the Opco for &lt;0.15x book.


[Japan M&A] TAPCO-TICO (6201) Deal VIII - Toyota Group Bumps, Elliott Agrees, STILL the Wrong Price.

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>As per media reports <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> (TMC) could be planning to unwind some of its US$19bn cross-shareholding by working with financial institutions.</li>
<li>In our prior series of notes, we had looked at the cross-shareholding across a swathe of companies, the largest of which was Toyota Motors.</li>
<li>In this note, we take a quick look at the possible shareholding unwind.</li>
</ul>


As per media reports Toyota Motor (7203 JP) (TMC) could be planning to unwind some of its US$19bn cross-shareholding by working with financial institutions.
In our prior series of notes, we had looked at the cross-shareholding across a swathe of companies, the largest of which was Toyota Motors.
In this note, we take a quick look at the possible shareholding unwind.


Aequitas: Toyota Motors Cross-Shareholding - Possible US$19bn Unwind, Might Not Be Soon

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Assuming the Nikkei 225 March 2026 rebal goes as expected in our <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-index-nikkei-225-mar26-rebal-2-adds-3rd-poss-2-dels-1-cap-another-close" target="_blank" rel="noopener">final expectations insight</a>, there are likely to be two automatic ADDs and one sector catch-up ADD.</li>
<li>Higher value traded in recent months in the semis and semi-precious metals sectors has meant stocks leapt up the rankings. Other rankings are volatile. We made a slight algo change.</li>
<li>Interestingly, the third choice is likely to be a Capital Goods stock. If the Toyota Fudosan TOB fails, there is a dark horse case for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a>. </li>
</ul>


Assuming the Nikkei 225 March 2026 rebal goes as expected in our final expectations insight, there are likely to be two automatic ADDs and one sector catch-up ADD.
Higher value traded in recent months in the semis and semi-precious metals sectors has meant stocks leapt up the rankings. Other rankings are volatile. We made a slight algo change.
Interestingly, the third choice is likely to be a Capital Goods stock. If the Toyota Fudosan TOB fails, there is a dark horse case for Toyota Industries (6201 JP). 


[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep26 Rebal Preview II - 2 Auto ADDs, 1 Extra Likely, 1 Cap

<ul>
<li>Assuming the Nikkei 225 March 2026 rebal goes as expected in our <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-index-nikkei-225-mar26-rebal-2-adds-3rd-poss-2-dels-1-cap-another-close" target="_blank" rel="noopener">final expectations insight</a>, there are likely to be two automatic ADDs and one sector catch-up ADD.</li>
<li>Higher value traded in the last 6-12mos in the semis and semi-precious metals sectors has meant stocks leapt up the rankings.</li>
<li>Interestingly, the third choice is likely to be a Capital Goods stock. If the Toyota Fudosan TOB fails, there is a dark horse case for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


Assuming the Nikkei 225 March 2026 rebal goes as expected in our final expectations insight, there are likely to be two automatic ADDs and one sector catch-up ADD.
Higher value traded in the last 6-12mos in the semis and semi-precious metals sectors has meant stocks leapt up the rankings.
Interestingly, the third choice is likely to be a Capital Goods stock. If the Toyota Fudosan TOB fails, there is a dark horse case for Toyota Industries (6201 JP).


[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep26 Rebal Early Preview - 2 Auto ADDs, 1 Extra Likely, 1 Cap

Japan

ASICS CORPORATION manufactures general sporting goods and equipment.  The Company's products, such as athletic shoes and sportswear, are distributed in the United States, Europe, Australia, and Asia.

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ASICS Corp (7936 JP)

MS-Japan Index Earning Revision (Feb): Sony, Sumitomo Metal Mining, Toyota Motor, SoftBank

We analyzed MS-Japan's consensus for Feb 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in Sony, Sumitomo Metal Mining, Toyota Motor, SoftBank, Nissan Motor,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

[Japan M&A] TAPCO-TICO (6201) Deal VIII - Toyota Group Bumps, Elliott Agrees, STILL the Wrong Price.

TAPCO caved and extended and raised the price. It kind of feels like an activist caved in agreeing to sell a huge near-cash position at well below...

Travis Lundy

Aequitas: Toyota Motors Cross-Shareholding - Possible US$19bn Unwind, Might Not Be Soon

As per media reports Toyota Motor (7203 JP) (TMC) could be planning to unwind some of its US$19bn cross-shareholding by working with financial...

Sumeet Singh

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep26 Rebal Preview II - 2 Auto ADDs, 1 Extra Likely, 1 Cap

Value traded is up across the entire market the last few months. On some stocks the change is fierce. The predictive algos deserved a refresh so...

Travis Lundy

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep26 Rebal Early Preview - 2 Auto ADDs, 1 Extra Likely, 1 Cap

A preview of teh Sep 2026 Nikkei 225 rebal assuming changes are as expected for the Mar26 rebal suggests 3 ADDs and 3 DELETEs and $4bn of Advantest...

Travis Lundy

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