Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>ASICS is revising up its full year forecasts, now expecting sales to reach a record ¥660 billion , up 15.7% year-over-year. There is a strong currency tail wind. </li>
<li>Still "you gotta be in it to win it.."  ASICS is currently crushing it, while Nike flounders</li>
<li>A large secondary offering will likely hit the share price in the short term; there are two key risks...but it could be a good opportunity to buy. </li>
</ul>


ASICS is revising up its full year forecasts, now expecting sales to reach a record ¥660 billion , up 15.7% year-over-year. There is a strong currency tail wind. 
Still "you gotta be in it to win it.."  ASICS is currently crushing it, while Nike flounders
A large secondary offering will likely hit the share price in the short term; there are two key risks...but it could be a good opportunity to buy. 


ASICS (7936) | Obadele Thompson or Usain Bolt?

<ul>
<li>Asics has demonstrated impressive growth in gross profit margins, as evidenced by 4.3ppt YoY improvement in Q1 to 54.5%</li>
<li>Asics has been successful in growing market share and enhancing its brand strength</li>
<li>For FY2024, we now forecast a 10% YoY increase in sales to ¥628 billion and a 46% rise in OP to ¥79 billion (prev: ¥ 71b)</li>
</ul>


Asics has demonstrated impressive growth in gross profit margins, as evidenced by 4.3ppt YoY improvement in Q1 to 54.5%
Asics has been successful in growing market share and enhancing its brand strength
For FY2024, we now forecast a 10% YoY increase in sales to ¥628 billion and a 46% rise in OP to ¥79 billion (prev: ¥ 71b)


<ul>
<li>On's quarterly results disappoint, triggering a 10% stock drop. Meanwhile, ASICS’ share price is up 43% YTD despite modest performance.</li>
<li>ASICS shareholders advised to consider profit-taking as stock outpaces fundamentals, faces competition from resurging Nike and fast-growing On</li>
<li>On's ambitious growth projections threaten ASICS' market position, with potential market share parity within three years</li>
</ul>


On's quarterly results disappoint, triggering a 10% stock drop. Meanwhile, ASICS’ share price is up 43% YTD despite modest performance.
ASICS shareholders advised to consider profit-taking as stock outpaces fundamentals, faces competition from resurging Nike and fast-growing On
On's ambitious growth projections threaten ASICS' market position, with potential market share parity within three years


IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/snow-peak-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7218:1" rel="noopener">Snow Peak Inc (7816 JP)</a> has recommended a Bain Capital-sponsored MBO tender offer at JPY1,250 per share, a 58.0% premium to the undisturbed price (15 February). </li>
<li>The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the tender offer is set at a 38.13% ownership ratio.</li>
<li>Based on the irrevocables, the minimum acceptance condition requires a 52.8% minority acceptance rate. While not a knockout offer, the acceptance condition is achievable.  </li>
</ul>



Snow Peak Inc (7816 JP) has recommended a Bain Capital-sponsored MBO tender offer at JPY1,250 per share, a 58.0% premium to the undisturbed price (15 February). 
The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the tender offer is set at a 38.13% ownership ratio.
Based on the irrevocables, the minimum acceptance condition requires a 52.8% minority acceptance rate. While not a knockout offer, the acceptance condition is achievable.  


Snow Peak (7816 JP): Bain-Backed MBO at JPY1,250

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Business-deals/Japan-s-Snow-Peak-plans-330m-management-buyout-with-Bain-help" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nikkei reports</a> that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/snow-peak-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7218:1" rel="noopener">Snow Peak Inc (7816 JP)</a> is set to disclose a Bain-sponsored MBO this week “<em>in the range of 1,200 yen per share.</em>”</li>
<li>Mergermarket first disclosed a potential MBO on Friday. Snow Peak responded that while it is true that we are considering going private, no decision has been made at this time.</li>
<li>The rumoured JPY1,200 offer price is light vs historical trading ranges but attractive vs peer and historical multiples. The probability of an offer materialising is high. </li>
</ul>


The Nikkei reports that Snow Peak Inc (7816 JP) is set to disclose a Bain-sponsored MBO this week “in the range of 1,200 yen per share.”
Mergermarket first disclosed a potential MBO on Friday. Snow Peak responded that while it is true that we are considering going private, no decision has been made at this time.
The rumoured JPY1,200 offer price is light vs historical trading ranges but attractive vs peer and historical multiples. The probability of an offer materialising is high. 


Snow Peak (7816 JP): Bain Contemplating Backing an MBO at JPY1,200

Japan

ASICS CORPORATION manufactures general sporting goods and equipment.  The Company's products, such as athletic shoes and sportswear, are distributed in the United States, Europe, Australia, and Asia.

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ASICS Corp (7936 JP)

ASICS (7936) | Obadele Thompson or Usain Bolt?

ASICS raises sales forecast to record levels, outperforming Nike. Potential share price drop from secondary offering presents buying opportunity.

Mark Chadwick

Asics (7936) | Raising the Bar

Asics shows strong growth in profit margins, market share, and brand strength, with forecasted sales and operating profit increases for FY2024.

Mark Chadwick

Asics (7936) | Pumping the Brakes

On's disappointing quarterly results lead to a 10% stock drop, while ASICS' share price is up 43% YTD. ASICS shareholders should consider profit...

Mark Chadwick

Snow Peak (7816 JP): Bain-Backed MBO at JPY1,250

Based on the irrevocables, the minimum acceptance condition requires a 52.8% minority acceptance rate. While not a knockout offer, the acceptance...

Arun George

Snow Peak (7816 JP): Bain Contemplating Backing an MBO at JPY1,200

The rumoured JPY1,200 offer price is light vs historical trading ranges but attractive vs peer and historical multiples. The probability of an...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

ASICS (7936) | Obadele Thompson or Usain Bolt?

​ASICS raises sales forecast to record levels, outperforming Nike. Potential share price drop from secondary offering presents buying opportunity.

Mark Chadwick

Asics (7936) | Raising the Bar

​Asics shows strong growth in profit margins, market share, and brand strength, with forecasted sales and operating profit increases for FY2024.

Mark Chadwick

Asics (7936) | Pumping the Brakes

​On's disappointing quarterly results lead to a 10% stock drop, while ASICS' share price is up 43% YTD. ASICS shareholders should consider profit...

Mark Chadwick

Snow Peak (7816 JP): Bain-Backed MBO at JPY1,250

Based on the irrevocables, the minimum acceptance condition requires a 52.8% minority acceptance rate. While not a knockout offer, the acceptance...

Arun George

Snow Peak (7816 JP): Bain Contemplating Backing an MBO at JPY1,200

The rumoured JPY1,200 offer price is light vs historical trading ranges but attractive vs peer and historical multiples. The probability of an...

Arun George

ASICS raises sales forecast to record levels, outperforming Nike. Potential share price drop from secondary offering presents buying opportunity.

Asics shows strong growth in profit margins, market share, and brand strength, with forecasted sales and operating profit increases for FY2024.

On's disappointing quarterly results lead to a 10% stock drop, while ASICS' share price is up 43% YTD. ASICS shareholders should consider profit...