Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Good news from Nike’s Q3 report, which bodes well for Asics March quarter</li>
<li>Why was Nike’s stock down? Margins were down 330bps on inventory mark downs</li>
<li>Running is recession proof according to the footwear makers themselves</li>
</ul>


Good news from Nike’s Q3 report, which bodes well for Asics March quarter
Why was Nike’s stock down? Margins were down 330bps on inventory mark downs
Running is recession proof according to the footwear makers themselves


ASICS (7936) | Running Is Recession Proof

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

<ul>
<li>Descente has improved profitability since being taken over by Itochu three years ago but much of the growth has come from overseas. </li>
<li>The Descente brand remains weak in Japan but Itochu has plans to rebuild the eponymous label by splitting it into two while creating several new brands.</li>
<li>The plans should help recover momentum in Japan and drive further expansion in China and even into Europe and the US.</li>
</ul>


Descente has improved profitability since being taken over by Itochu three years ago but much of the growth has come from overseas. 
The Descente brand remains weak in Japan but Itochu has plans to rebuild the eponymous label by splitting it into two while creating several new brands.
The plans should help recover momentum in Japan and drive further expansion in China and even into Europe and the US.


<ul>
<li>We were too early to turn bearish on Asics. Recent stock price performance has been strong</li>
<li>Although rising inventories have yet to impact on margins, they are a potential red flag</li>
<li>The stock is not cheap at 29x PE. The long-term financial model suggests limited upside from here</li>
</ul>


We were too early to turn bearish on Asics. Recent stock price performance has been strong
Although rising inventories have yet to impact on margins, they are a potential red flag
The stock is not cheap at 29x PE. The long-term financial model suggests limited upside from here


Asics (7936) | It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

<ul>
<li>NIKE reported Q1 results post close on Thursday sending the shares down 9% after hours and hitting the stock price of Asics on Friday (-10.7%).  </li>
<li>ASICS is unlikely to face ALL of the same problems that impacted NIKE, but investors should be aware of the rising inventory risk</li>
<li>ASICS is less risky given less exposure to apparel. Even so, we remain bearish for now</li>
</ul>


NIKE reported Q1 results post close on Thursday sending the shares down 9% after hours and hitting the stock price of Asics on Friday (-10.7%).  
ASICS is unlikely to face ALL of the same problems that impacted NIKE, but investors should be aware of the rising inventory risk
ASICS is less risky given less exposure to apparel. Even so, we remain bearish for now


<ul>
<li>The stock price has rallied 40% since our last note. We are happy to take profit here, hence we label this insight as Bearish </li>
<li>The results and full year guidance hike were positive but largely currency assisted  </li>
<li>We expect that a focus on China and Direct will drive margin expansion in the medium term</li>
</ul>


The stock price has rallied 40% since our last note. We are happy to take profit here, hence we label this insight as Bearish 
The results and full year guidance hike were positive but largely currency assisted  
We expect that a focus on China and Direct will drive margin expansion in the medium term


Asics (7936) | Strong Performance Meets Reasonable Valuation

Japan

ASICS CORPORATION manufactures general sporting goods and equipment.  The Company's products, such as athletic shoes and sportswear, are distributed in the United States, Europe, Australia, and Asia.

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ASICS Corp (7936 JP)

ASICS (7936) | Running Is Recession Proof

Nike reported Q3 earnings for the Q ended February. Sales rose +14% to $12.4 b, above street estimates of $11.5b. On a currency-neutral basis,...

Mark Chadwick

Descente Puts on Some Pace

Japanese outdoor brands are on a roll. Descente, now part of the Itochu empire, is rebuilding its brand at home and overseas, with significant...

Michael Causton

Asics (7936) | It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

We were too early to turn bearish on Asics. Q4 numbers were good. However, we note that rising inventories are a risk and we see limited upside...

Mark Chadwick

Asics (7936) | Nike Air Pockets

Following the weak quarter from NIKE and the poor outlook, we remain Bearish on ASICS. We see potential for a disappointing quarter in China and a...

Mark Chadwick

Asics (7936) | Strong Performance Meets Reasonable Valuation

After the stock has gained 40% from the recent low, we are taking profits. Q2 earnings were good, but assisted by the weak yen.

Mark Chadwick

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