Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>I don’t think it’s been any secret that I’ve been a peak litho bear for quite some time. I think we are finally seeing reality hit the company and the stock. Let’s discuss earnings, and then I’ll talk about peak lithography and TSMC.</li><li>ASML accidentally leaked earnings this week, and the leak wasn’t good. They beat Q3, but the issue was the outlook for next year and orders coming way below expectations. It’s funny because Q4 revenue is expected to accelerate, but no one is paying attention to that.\</li><li>Memory was half of the measly 2.6 billion-order book and is likely driven more by DUV for HBM than logic High NA.</li></ul>

I don’t think it’s been any secret that I’ve been a peak litho bear for quite some time. I think we are finally seeing reality hit the company and the stock. Let’s discuss earnings, and then I’ll talk about peak lithography and TSMC.ASML accidentally leaked earnings this week, and the leak wasn’t good. They beat Q3, but the issue was the outlook for next year and orders coming way below expectations. It’s funny because Q4 revenue is expected to accelerate, but no one is paying attention to that.\Memory was half of the measly 2.6 billion-order book and is likely driven more by DUV for HBM than logic High NA.

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>The price of ASML EUV machine is increasing as thruput (wafer / hour) is increasing. </li>
<li>TSMC 3nm is fully booked in 2025. Here is the list of clients / chips. </li>
<li>SiC and MCU over-investments in China? Very likely. China is limiting SiC investments. </li>
</ul>


The price of ASML EUV machine is increasing as thruput (wafer / hour) is increasing. 
TSMC 3nm is fully booked in 2025. Here is the list of clients / chips. 
SiC and MCU over-investments in China? Very likely. China is limiting SiC investments. 


Tech News This Week. ASML, TSMC, Intel, SiC Capacity, MCU in China

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>TSMC Delivers Strong 3Q24 Revenue and Margin Growth; Margin Guidance Climbs</li>
<li>Management Says Believes AI Demand is Not Hyped... Companies Extracting ROIs</li>
<li>TSMC – Structural Long Rating Maintained; NT$1,515 Price Target Suggests 46% Upside</li>
</ul>


TSMC Delivers Strong 3Q24 Revenue and Margin Growth; Margin Guidance Climbs
Management Says Believes AI Demand is Not Hyped... Companies Extracting ROIs
TSMC – Structural Long Rating Maintained; NT$1,515 Price Target Suggests 46% Upside


TSMC 3Q24: Capex & Margin Guidance Remains Strong; Explains Why AI Demand Not Overhyped; Stay Long

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>ASML reported revenues of €7.5 billion, +19% QoQ and +11.9% YoY. This was €200 million above the high end of the guided range. Q424 guided to €9 billion</li>
<li>Logic Fab delays and a collapse in sales to China caused ASML to reduce their 2025 forecast to the low end of the €30 -€40 billion guided in November 2022</li>
<li>Despite these challenges, ASML's latest forecast still implies 16% YoY growth in 2025</li>
</ul>


ASML reported revenues of €7.5 billion, +19% QoQ and +11.9% YoY. This was €200 million above the high end of the guided range. Q424 guided to €9 billion
Logic Fab delays and a collapse in sales to China caused ASML to reduce their 2025 forecast to the low end of the €30 -€40 billion guided in November 2022
Despite these challenges, ASML's latest forecast still implies 16% YoY growth in 2025


<ul>
<li>Samsung's foundry business is losing more customers to TSMC, who is perceived as lower risk.</li>
<li>TSMC, UMC Monthly Sales: TSMC up strong but plateauing, UMC lackluster, confirming 2 big trends.</li>
<li>Memory Monitor: Nanya results miss; highlights weakness in non-AI demand.</li>
</ul>


Samsung's foundry business is losing more customers to TSMC, who is perceived as lower risk.
TSMC, UMC Monthly Sales: TSMC up strong but plateauing, UMC lackluster, confirming 2 big trends.
Memory Monitor: Nanya results miss; highlights weakness in non-AI demand.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Taking More Samsung Customers; Hon Hai Unveils Major AI Projects

Netherlands

ASML Holding N.V. develops, produces, and markets semiconductor manufacturing equipment, specifically machines for the production of chips through lithography. The Company services clients worldwide.

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ASML Holding NV (ASML US)

Earnings: TSMC, ASML, AEHR, Telecom

I don’t think it’s been any secret that I’ve been a peak litho bear for quite some time. I think we are finally seeing reality hit the company and...

Fabricated Knowledge

Tech News This Week. ASML, TSMC, Intel, SiC Capacity, MCU in China

ASML price increase in 2025. TSMC 3nm Order Surge Expected in 2025. Intel's Next-Gen Panther Lake CPUs Handed to Lenovo. China restrictions on SiC...

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC 3Q24: Capex & Margin Guidance Remains Strong; Explains Why AI Demand Not Overhyped; Stay Long

TSMC reports strong revenue and margin growth in 3Q24, with belief in sustainable AI demand and maintaining a positive long-term outlook.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

ASML Tanks Semis On Tepid 2025 Outlook

ASML downward revision of their 2025 forecast tanked the stock, and semiconductors generally, overnight. Yet they are still projecting 16% YoY...

William Keating

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Taking More Samsung Customers; Hon Hai Unveils Major AI Projects

Samsung's foundry business losing customers to TSMC due to perceived lower risk; TSMC and UMC sales trends confirm industry shifts, while Nanya...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)

Earnings: TSMC, ASML, AEHR, Telecom

I don’t think it’s been any secret that I’ve been a peak litho bear for quite some time. I think we are finally seeing reality hit the company and...

Fabricated Knowledge

Tech News This Week. ASML, TSMC, Intel, SiC Capacity, MCU in China

ASML price increase in 2025. TSMC 3nm Order Surge Expected in 2025. Intel's Next-Gen Panther Lake CPUs Handed to Lenovo. China restrictions on SiC...

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC 3Q24: Capex & Margin Guidance Remains Strong; Explains Why AI Demand Not Overhyped; Stay Long

​TSMC reports strong revenue and margin growth in 3Q24, with belief in sustainable AI demand and maintaining a positive long-term outlook.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

ASML Tanks Semis On Tepid 2025 Outlook

ASML downward revision of their 2025 forecast tanked the stock, and semiconductors generally, overnight. Yet they are still projecting 16% YoY...

William Keating

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Taking More Samsung Customers; Hon Hai Unveils Major AI Projects

​Samsung's foundry business losing customers to TSMC due to perceived lower risk; TSMC and UMC sales trends confirm industry shifts, while Nanya...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC reports strong revenue and margin growth in 3Q24, with belief in sustainable AI demand and maintaining a positive long-term outlook.

Samsung's foundry business losing customers to TSMC due to perceived lower risk; TSMC and UMC sales trends confirm industry shifts, while Nanya...