Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Best asset in semiconductors: the sole EUV monopoly, now dual-cycle as memory hit 51% of system sales at a 53% gross margin, on a €38.8bn backlog.</li>
<li>A ~19% revenue and ~27% EPS CAGR to FY28E, ROE ~67%, ~€46bn cumulative free cash flow, and a leading-edge order book effectively sold out ~1.5–2 years.</li>
<li>BUY, €2,100 (+27%): 50x FY27E EPS of €42.0 — the multiple spot already pays on FY26E, simply rolled forward. Our EPS sits ~4% above consensus.  </li>
</ul>


Best asset in semiconductors: the sole EUV monopoly, now dual-cycle as memory hit 51% of system sales at a 53% gross margin, on a €38.8bn backlog.
A ~19% revenue and ~27% EPS CAGR to FY28E, ROE ~67%, ~€46bn cumulative free cash flow, and a leading-edge order book effectively sold out ~1.5–2 years.
BUY, €2,100 (+27%): 50x FY27E EPS of €42.0 — the multiple spot already pays on FY26E, simply rolled forward. Our EPS sits ~4% above consensus.  


ASML NA/US - Initiate with BUY: The AI Bottleneck No Competitor Can Replicate

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>ASML Holding has become one of the most unusual stories in global markets: a single company whose machines are central to artificial intelligence, semiconductor supply, and the U.S.-China technology rivalry.</li><li>Its most advanced EUV lithography systems can cost more than $400 million each, and they are so strategically important that Washington has kept them out of China since 2019.</li><li>Yet the latest controversy shows the issue has not disappeared.</li></ul>

ASML Holding has become one of the most unusual stories in global markets: a single company whose machines are central to artificial intelligence, semiconductor supply, and the U.S.-China technology rivalry.Its most advanced EUV lithography systems can cost more than $400 million each, and they are so strategically important that Washington has kept them out of China since 2019.Yet the latest controversy shows the issue has not disappeared.

ASML’s $400 Million Weapon In The U.S.-China Tech War!

Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

<ul><li>In this edition: • ASML Holding | Mistral in talks to raise at EUR 20bn valuation • ING Group | reduces its stake in TMBThanachart Bank • E-commerce & Logistics | Netherlands aligns EU-China parcel tax with Brussels approach</li></ul>

In this edition: • ASML Holding | Mistral in talks to raise at EUR 20bn valuation • ING Group | reduces its stake in TMBThanachart Bank • E-commerce & Logistics | Netherlands aligns EU-China parcel tax with Brussels approach

What's New(s) in Amsterdam - 15 June (ASML Holding | ING Group | E-commerce & logistics)

Hedge Fund News, Information and Data, Hedge Fund Alpha

Hedge Fund Alpha

Hedge Fund News, Information and Data

We focus on hedge funds with a bias towards emerging managers, specifically fundamental long-short managers. We are known for a lot of insights and exclusives on hedge fund letters, coverage of industry conferences, and interviews with investors and interesting service providers.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>GA-Courtenay Special Situations Fund declined 13.8% in July, taking its year-to-date return to -10.0%, as an unusual liquidity-driven dislocation hit higher-growth equities.</li><li>Ex-Odey star and fund manager Adrian Courtenay said the sell-off showed no corresponding deterioration in the fundamentals of the hedge fund’s holdings, while the merger arbitrage book contributed positively during the month.</li><li>The fund responded cautiously by reducing equity gross exposure while increasing its merger arbitrage allocation and adding selectively to SpaceX and Tesla.</li></ul>

GA-Courtenay Special Situations Fund declined 13.8% in July, taking its year-to-date return to -10.0%, as an unusual liquidity-driven dislocation hit higher-growth equities.Ex-Odey star and fund manager Adrian Courtenay said the sell-off showed no corresponding deterioration in the fundamentals of the hedge fund’s holdings, while the merger arbitrage book contributed positively during the month.The fund responded cautiously by reducing equity gross exposure while increasing its merger arbitrage allocation and adding selectively to SpaceX and Tesla.

Courtenay Special Situations Fund Falls 14% in July, Adds to Elon Musk-Linked Stakes

<ul><li>ASML Holding N.V. reported net sales of EUR 8.8 billion in the first quarter of 2026, aligning with prior guidance.</li><li>Net system sales amounted to EUR 6.3 billion, including over EUR 4.1 billion from extreme ultraviolet (EUV) system sales, reflecting contributions from two High Numerical Aperture (High NA) systems.</li><li>The sales split between Logic and Memory segments was nearly balanced at 49% and 51%, respectively.</li></ul>

ASML Holding N.V. reported net sales of EUR 8.8 billion in the first quarter of 2026, aligning with prior guidance.Net system sales amounted to EUR 6.3 billion, including over EUR 4.1 billion from extreme ultraviolet (EUV) system sales, reflecting contributions from two High Numerical Aperture (High NA) systems.The sales split between Logic and Memory segments was nearly balanced at 49% and 51%, respectively.

ASML: A Close Look At The Memory Boom—What Rising EUV Adoption Means For Capacity And Revenues!

Netherlands

ASML Holding N.V. develops, produces, and markets semiconductor manufacturing equipment, specifically machines for the production of chips through lithography. The Company services clients worldwide.

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ASML Holding NV (ASML US)

ASML NA/US - Initiate with BUY: The AI Bottleneck No Competitor Can Replicate

Semiconductor company with EUV monopoly and strong financials expected to see significant growth, recommend buying stock at €2,100.

Mo Aziz

ASML’s $400 Million Weapon In The U.S.-China Tech War!

ASML Holding has become one of the most unusual stories in global markets: a single company whose machines are central to artificial intelligence,...

Baptista Research

What's New(s) in Amsterdam - 15 June (ASML Holding | ING Group | E-commerce & logistics)

In this edition: • ASML Holding | Mistral in talks to raise at EUR 20bn valuation • ING Group | reduces its stake in TMBThanachart Bank...

The IDEA!

Courtenay Special Situations Fund Falls 14% in July, Adds to Elon Musk-Linked Stakes

GA-Courtenay Special Situations Fund declined 13.8% in July, taking its year-to-date return to -10.0%, as an unusual liquidity-driven dislocation...

Hedge Fund Alpha

ASML: A Close Look At The Memory Boom—What Rising EUV Adoption Means For Capacity And Revenues!

ASML Holding N.V. reported net sales of EUR 8.8 billion in the first quarter of 2026, aligning with prior guidance. Net system sales amounted to...

Baptista Research

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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ASML NA/US - Initiate with BUY: The AI Bottleneck No Competitor Can Replicate

​Semiconductor company with EUV monopoly and strong financials expected to see significant growth, recommend buying stock at €2,100.

Mo Aziz

ASML’s $400 Million Weapon In The U.S.-China Tech War!

ASML Holding has become one of the most unusual stories in global markets: a single company whose machines are central to artificial intelligence,...

Baptista Research

What's New(s) in Amsterdam - 15 June (ASML Holding | ING Group | E-commerce & logistics)

In this edition: • ASML Holding | Mistral in talks to raise at EUR 20bn valuation • ING Group | reduces its stake in TMBThanachart Bank...

The IDEA!

Courtenay Special Situations Fund Falls 14% in July, Adds to Elon Musk-Linked Stakes

GA-Courtenay Special Situations Fund declined 13.8% in July, taking its year-to-date return to -10.0%, as an unusual liquidity-driven dislocation...

Hedge Fund Alpha

ASML: A Close Look At The Memory Boom—What Rising EUV Adoption Means For Capacity And Revenues!

ASML Holding N.V. reported net sales of EUR 8.8 billion in the first quarter of 2026, aligning with prior guidance. Net system sales amounted to...

Baptista Research

Semiconductor company with EUV monopoly and strong financials expected to see significant growth, recommend buying stock at €2,100.