Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Comments focus on low bookings in 3Q24. The reset is much larger than this. ASML has capacity for 90 low-NA EUV machines in 2025-26. Demand in 2025 is below 50.</li>
<li>Bullish 2025-28 guidance (revenue / capacity) provided by ASML end of 2022 is finally resetting. 2025 Consensus Net Income forecast could reset by ~20%, 2026 by ~30%.</li>
<li>ASML finally factors in 1) weak end demand in all segments except for AI 2) Fab push out or cancellation  3) China accelerated Capex and over capacity are slowing.</li>
</ul>


Comments focus on low bookings in 3Q24. The reset is much larger than this. ASML has capacity for 90 low-NA EUV machines in 2025-26. Demand in 2025 is below 50.
Bullish 2025-28 guidance (revenue / capacity) provided by ASML end of 2022 is finally resetting. 2025 Consensus Net Income forecast could reset by ~20%, 2026 by ~30%.
ASML finally factors in 1) weak end demand in all segments except for AI 2) Fab push out or cancellation  3) China accelerated Capex and over capacity are slowing.


ASML 3Q24: The Huge Reset Is Mostly the Result of Company's Miscalculations

Podcast by CEO, Norges Bank Investment Management, In Good Company with Nicolai Tangen

In Good Company with Nicolai Tangen

Podcast by CEO, Norges Bank Investment Management

The CEO of the largest single investor in the world, Norges Bank Investment Management, interviews leaders of some of the largest companies in the world. You will get to know the leader, their strategy, leadership principles, and much more. Hosted on Acast. See https://www.acast.com/privacy-policy for more information.

<ul><li>ASML produces lithography systems for printing electronic circuits on chips</li><li>ASML is the only company in the world producing EUV lithography printers</li><li>EUV lithography involves generating light with a very small wavelength and requires complex technology and optics, with challenges in light generation and guiding the light to print circuits on wafers</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

ASML produces lithography systems for printing electronic circuits on chipsASML is the only company in the world producing EUV lithography printersEUV lithography involves generating light with a very small wavelength and requires complex technology and optics, with challenges in light generation and guiding the light to print circuits on wafersThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

ASML CEO: EUV Technology, Microchips and Long-term Mindset

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
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<ul><li>ASML Holding N.V. continues to cement its position as the linchpin of the semiconductor supply chain, demonstrating resilience in the face of market turbulence.</li><li>The Dutch chip-equipment manufacturer posted robust fourth-quarter results, with net sales reaching €9.3 billion, surpassing prior guidance.</li><li>Despite concerns about AI efficiency potentially reducing demand for high-end chips—exemplified by the recent DeepSeek-driven selloff—ASML’s strong order intake and continued industry reliance on its cutting-edge lithography technology highlight its long-term investment appeal.</li></ul>

ASML Holding N.V. continues to cement its position as the linchpin of the semiconductor supply chain, demonstrating resilience in the face of market turbulence.The Dutch chip-equipment manufacturer posted robust fourth-quarter results, with net sales reaching €9.3 billion, surpassing prior guidance.Despite concerns about AI efficiency potentially reducing demand for high-end chips—exemplified by the recent DeepSeek-driven selloff—ASML’s strong order intake and continued industry reliance on its cutting-edge lithography technology highlight its long-term investment appeal.

ASML Defies DeepSeek Panic—Massive AI Boom Ignites Orders But Will This Last?

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>ASML reported Q424 revenues of €9.3 billion, marginally above the high end of the guided range, up 24% QoQ and up 28.5% YoY.</li>
<li>Full year 2024 revenue amounted to €28.3 billion, up 2.7% YoY and a modest improvement on the previously forecasted zero growth</li>
<li>Guided full year 2025 revenues to be in the $30-$35 billion range, representing a 15% YoY increase at the midpoint.</li>
</ul>


ASML reported Q424 revenues of €9.3 billion, marginally above the high end of the guided range, up 24% QoQ and up 28.5% YoY.
Full year 2024 revenue amounted to €28.3 billion, up 2.7% YoY and a modest improvement on the previously forecasted zero growth
Guided full year 2025 revenues to be in the $30-$35 billion range, representing a 15% YoY increase at the midpoint.


ASML. Strong Finish For 24, Robust Outlook For 25 With AI As Key Growth Driver

Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

<ul><li>In this edition: • AkzoNobel | 4Q24 shows a mixed picture; some bright spots ahead • ASML Holding | reiterates FY25 and long-term outlook / record quarterly FCF • InPost | AliExpress survey shows Polish shoppers are looking for 'engaging experiences'</li></ul>

In this edition: • AkzoNobel | 4Q24 shows a mixed picture; some bright spots ahead • ASML Holding | reiterates FY25 and long-term outlook / record quarterly FCF • InPost | AliExpress survey shows Polish shoppers are looking for 'engaging experiences'

What's New(s) in Amsterdam - 29 January (AkzoNobel | ASML Holding | | InPost)

Netherlands

ASML Holding N.V. develops, produces, and markets semiconductor manufacturing equipment, specifically machines for the production of chips through lithography. The Company services clients world wide.

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ASML Holding NV (ASML NA)

ASML 3Q24: The Huge Reset Is Mostly the Result of Company's Miscalculations

ASML revenue guidance reset yesterday comes from management exuberance in 2022. It is not obvious that it implies a “broad negative surprise” in...

Nicolas Baratte

ASML CEO: EUV Technology, Microchips and Long-term Mindset

ASML produces advanced lithography systems using EUV technology to print electronic circuits on semiconductor chips, playing a crucial role in...

In Good Company with Nicolai Tangen

ASML Defies DeepSeek Panic—Massive AI Boom Ignites Orders But Will This Last?

ASML Holding N.V. continues to cement its position as the linchpin of the semiconductor supply chain, demonstrating resilience in the face of...

Baptista Research

ASML. Strong Finish For 24, Robust Outlook For 25 With AI As Key Growth Driver

The high end of ASML's 2030 revenue range represents a CAGR of 13.5%. This compares to a CAGR of 18% in the 2015-2024 time frame & TSMC's 20% CAGR....

William Keating

What's New(s) in Amsterdam - 29 January (AkzoNobel | ASML Holding | | InPost)

In this edition: • AkzoNobel | 4Q24 shows a mixed picture; some bright spots ahead • ASML Holding | reiterates FY25 and long-term outlook /...

The IDEA!

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