Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>AMAT mentions “tremendous architecture inflections” in Logic and Memory (GAA, BSPD, HBM), this is true. But reviewed yesterday, how much, how fast versus declining Mature Logic and China declining?</li>
<li>2025 China to decline -25%, RoW to increase +25% on AI. This should continue in 2026. Post China’s elevated capex in 2023-24, the SPE sector is a play on AI. </li>
<li>ASML and KLA are 1) quasi monopoly 2) in segments that outgrow the total market. ASML is cheapish, KAL at average valuations. Best 2 stocks: ASML, KLA</li>
</ul>


AMAT mentions “tremendous architecture inflections” in Logic and Memory (GAA, BSPD, HBM), this is true. But reviewed yesterday, how much, how fast versus declining Mature Logic and China declining?
2025 China to decline -25%, RoW to increase +25% on AI. This should continue in 2026. Post China’s elevated capex in 2023-24, the SPE sector is a play on AI. 
ASML and KLA are 1) quasi monopoly 2) in segments that outgrow the total market. ASML is cheapish, KAL at average valuations. Best 2 stocks: ASML, KLA


SPE Part 2: Growth in 2025-26 from AI Segment Only (Logic, HBM, Packaging). Best 2 Stocks: ASML, KLA

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>ASML Holding recently reported its financial results for the second quarter of 2025, demonstrating strong performance amidst a backdrop of macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty.</li><li>The company reported total net sales of EUR 7.7 billion, reaching the upper end of its guidance range.</li><li>This was driven by successful revenue recognition of one High Numerical Aperture (NA) system and additional upgrade business, with net system sales amounting to EUR 5.6 billion.</li></ul>

ASML Holding recently reported its financial results for the second quarter of 2025, demonstrating strong performance amidst a backdrop of macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty.The company reported total net sales of EUR 7.7 billion, reaching the upper end of its guidance range.This was driven by successful revenue recognition of one High Numerical Aperture (NA) system and additional upgrade business, with net system sales amounting to EUR 5.6 billion.

ASML: An Insight Into Its Recent Technological Advancements In EUV & High NA Lithography!

<ul>
<li>Stock is down -10%. The 2026 revenue comment (“while we still prepare for growth in 2026, we cannot confirm it at this stage“), confusion on EUV growth should explain it.</li>
<li>Number of EUV machines sold is flat but ASP is up 30% as machine’s throughput is up 30%. EUV revenue growth is in the mix, not units.</li>
<li>China: I don’t know what they tried to say. Healthy demand in China, not falling off a cliff. But wait, China 1H25 revenue have declined -28% YoY.</li>
</ul>


Stock is down -10%. The 2026 revenue comment (“while we still prepare for growth in 2026, we cannot confirm it at this stage“), confusion on EUV growth should explain it.
Number of EUV machines sold is flat but ASP is up 30% as machine’s throughput is up 30%. EUV revenue growth is in the mix, not units.
China: I don’t know what they tried to say. Healthy demand in China, not falling off a cliff. But wait, China 1H25 revenue have declined -28% YoY.


ASML 2Q25 Conf Call: Trying to Clear Doubts on EUV Growth and China Demand – Short Update

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>ASML today reported second quarter revenues of €7.7 billion, bang at the top of the guided range, flat QoQ and up 23% YoY</li>
<li>Guided 2025 at 15% growth (~€35 billion), a big step up in confidence from the €30-€35 billion range given last quarter</li>
<li>Comments regarding uncertainty about 2026 outlook and tariff impacts likely led to the &gt;7% sell off currently happening in pre-market trading.</li>
</ul>


ASML today reported second quarter revenues of €7.7 billion, bang at the top of the guided range, flat QoQ and up 23% YoY
Guided 2025 at 15% growth (~€35 billion), a big step up in confidence from the €30-€35 billion range given last quarter
Comments regarding uncertainty about 2026 outlook and tariff impacts likely led to the &gt;7% sell off currently happening in pre-market trading.


ASML Q225 Earnings. Solid Results, Forecasting 15% Growth In 2025, Down 7% In Pre Market. But Why?

Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

<ul><li>In this edition: • ASML Holding | expects 15% FY25 net sales increase with a 52% gross margin • Fugro | awarded a 7-year framework agreement with EirGrid</li></ul>

In this edition: • ASML Holding | expects 15% FY25 net sales increase with a 52% gross margin • Fugro | awarded a 7-year framework agreement with EirGrid

What's New(s) in Amsterdam - 16 July (ASML Holding | Fugro)

Netherlands

ASML Holding N.V. develops, produces, and markets semiconductor manufacturing equipment, specifically machines for the production of chips through lithography. The Company services clients world wide.

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ASML Holding NV (ASML NA)

SPE Part 2: Growth in 2025-26 from AI Segment Only (Logic, HBM, Packaging). Best 2 Stocks: ASML, KLA

architectural advancements in Logic and Memory, but questions remain on growth rates and China's decline. ASML and KLA are top picks in the sector....

Nicolas Baratte

ASML: An Insight Into Its Recent Technological Advancements In EUV & High NA Lithography!

ASML Holding recently reported its financial results for the second quarter of 2025, demonstrating strong performance amidst a backdrop of...

Baptista Research

ASML 2Q25 Conf Call: Trying to Clear Doubts on EUV Growth and China Demand – Short Update

Stock down -10% due to confusion on 2026 growth and EUV growth. EUV machine sales flat but ASP up 30%, revenue growth not in units. China demand...

Nicolas Baratte

ASML Q225 Earnings. Solid Results, Forecasting 15% Growth In 2025, Down 7% In Pre Market. But Why?

Comments regarding uncertainty about 2026 outlook and tariff impacts likely led to the >7% sell off currently happening in pre-market trading.

William Keating

What's New(s) in Amsterdam - 16 July (ASML Holding | Fugro)

In this edition: • ASML Holding | expects 15% FY25 net sales increase with a 52% gross margin • Fugro | awarded a 7-year framework agreement with...

The IDEA!

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

SPE Part 2: Growth in 2025-26 from AI Segment Only (Logic, HBM, Packaging). Best 2 Stocks: ASML, KLA

architectural advancements in Logic and Memory, but questions remain on growth rates and China's decline. ASML and KLA are top picks in the sector....

Nicolas Baratte

ASML: An Insight Into Its Recent Technological Advancements In EUV & High NA Lithography!

ASML Holding recently reported its financial results for the second quarter of 2025, demonstrating strong performance amidst a backdrop of...

Baptista Research

ASML 2Q25 Conf Call: Trying to Clear Doubts on EUV Growth and China Demand – Short Update

​Stock down -10% due to confusion on 2026 growth and EUV growth. EUV machine sales flat but ASP up 30%, revenue growth not in units. China demand...

Nicolas Baratte

ASML Q225 Earnings. Solid Results, Forecasting 15% Growth In 2025, Down 7% In Pre Market. But Why?

Comments regarding uncertainty about 2026 outlook and tariff impacts likely led to the >7% sell off currently happening in pre-market trading.

William Keating

What's New(s) in Amsterdam - 16 July (ASML Holding | Fugro)

In this edition: • ASML Holding | expects 15% FY25 net sales increase with a 52% gross margin • Fugro | awarded a 7-year framework agreement with...

The IDEA!

Stock down -10% due to confusion on 2026 growth and EUV growth. EUV machine sales flat but ASP up 30%, revenue growth not in units. China demand...