European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>ABF’s structural review could separate Primark from Food, unlocking value through clearer governance and capital allocation focus.</li>
<li>Our SOTP yields £26/share base case, implying ~17% upside to current price.</li>
<li>Event-Driven setup favours long ABF vs discretionary peers into April 2026 review conclusion.</li>
</ul>


ABF’s structural review could separate Primark from Food, unlocking value through clearer governance and capital allocation focus.
Our SOTP yields £26/share base case, implying ~17% upside to current price.
Event-Driven setup favours long ABF vs discretionary peers into April 2026 review conclusion.


ABF - Primark Separation: Governance Reset or Value Catalyst?

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

Associated British Foods / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Associated British Foods plc (ABF) released its interim financial results for the 24 weeks ending March 1, 2025, showcasing mixed performance across its business segments.</li><li>Overall, the group's adjusted operating profit declined by 10%, with adjusted earnings per share down 8%.</li><li>Despite these declines, the company maintained its interim dividend at the same level as the previous year, demonstrating underlying confidence in its long-term growth strategy.</li></ul>

Associated British Foods plc (ABF) released its interim financial results for the 24 weeks ending March 1, 2025, showcasing mixed performance across its business segments.Overall, the group's adjusted operating profit declined by 10%, with adjusted earnings per share down 8%.Despite these declines, the company maintained its interim dividend at the same level as the previous year, demonstrating underlying confidence in its long-term growth strategy.

Associated British Foods Inside Story: What You Need to Know About Its Expansion Into Africa & the U.S. South!

<ul><li>Associated British Foods (ABF) has reported a robust financial performance for the 52 weeks ending 14th September 2024, highlighted by substantial profit and cash flow improvements across its diversified portfolio.</li><li>Operating profit witnessed a 38% increase, with adjusted earnings per share climbing by 39%.</li><li>Cash generation rose to GBP 1.4 billion, marking an increase of GBP 1.1 billion from the previous year, which signifies positive operational and financial strides.</li></ul>

Associated British Foods (ABF) has reported a robust financial performance for the 52 weeks ending 14th September 2024, highlighted by substantial profit and cash flow improvements across its diversified portfolio.Operating profit witnessed a 38% increase, with adjusted earnings per share climbing by 39%.Cash generation rose to GBP 1.4 billion, marking an increase of GBP 1.1 billion from the previous year, which signifies positive operational and financial strides.

Associated British Foods: Initiation of Coverage- Automation & Labor Efficiency As A Pivotal Factor Driving Growth!

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to view the latest pullback as healthy/normal within the ongoing bull market, and it is quite possible that the lows have been established on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).</li>
<li>Upgrading EM to Market Weight; MSCI Emerging Markets, China (shanghai Composite) and Hong Kong (Hang Seng) Still Bottoming; we discussed buying in our February 23, 2024<em> Int'l Compass</em>
</li>
<li>Commodities all appear to be rolling over near resistance, which is what we discussed to watch for in our April 18, 2024 <em>Int'l Compass. </em>This has bullish implications for ACWI</li>
</ul>


We continue to view the latest pullback as healthy/normal within the ongoing bull market, and it is quite possible that the lows have been established on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).
Upgrading EM to Market Weight; MSCI Emerging Markets, China (shanghai Composite) and Hong Kong (Hang Seng) Still Bottoming; we discussed buying in our February 23, 2024 Int'l Compass

Commodities all appear to be rolling over near resistance, which is what we discussed to watch for in our April 18, 2024 Int'l Compass. This has bullish implications for ACWI


Upgrading Emerging Markets to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom; Energy Breakdowns

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The MSCI ACWI index ACWI-US briefly fell below major support at $90.50-$91.50, though we do not consider it a "decisive" breakdown and we now see a false breakdown (bullish).</li>
<li>On MSCI ACWI (local currency), a false breakdown appears to already be in place, which is bullish as long as the index does not break to a new low.</li>
<li>MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to hold above $36.50-$37 support, while MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US) and EAFE (EFA-US) remain above supports at $45 and $65-$66, respectively. Pullback is likely over.</li>
</ul>


The MSCI ACWI index ACWI-US briefly fell below major support at $90.50-$91.50, though we do not consider it a "decisive" breakdown and we now see a false breakdown (bullish).
On MSCI ACWI (local currency), a false breakdown appears to already be in place, which is bullish as long as the index does not break to a new low.
MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to hold above $36.50-$37 support, while MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US) and EAFE (EFA-US) remain above supports at $45 and $65-$66, respectively. Pullback is likely over.


Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over

United Kingdom

Associated British Foods PLC is a diversified international food, ingredients, and retail group. The Group conducts business in China, South America, Africa Europe, Australia, New Zealand, Asia, and the United States.

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Associated British Foods (ABF LN)

ABF - Primark Separation: Governance Reset or Value Catalyst?

ABF’s planned Primark spin review offers a clear, time-bound catalyst to close its conglomerate discount—governance clarity, focused management,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Associated British Foods Inside Story: What You Need to Know About Its Expansion Into Africa & the U.S. South!

Associated British Foods plc (ABF) released its interim financial results for the 24 weeks ending March 1, 2025, showcasing mixed performance...

Baptista Research

Associated British Foods: Initiation of Coverage- Automation & Labor Efficiency As A Pivotal Factor Driving Growth!

Associated British Foods (ABF) has reported a robust financial performance for the 52 weeks ending 14th September 2024, highlighted by substantial...

Baptista Research

Upgrading Emerging Markets to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom; Energy Breakdowns

Upgrading Emerging Markets $EEM $VWO to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom $FXI $MCHI $KWEB; Lows Likely in on $ACWI; Commodities...

Vermilion Research

Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over

The MSCI $ACWI briefly fell below our $90.50 support but quickly reclaimed, suggesting a false breakdown and the likely end to this pullback in...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

ABF - Primark Separation: Governance Reset or Value Catalyst?

ABF’s planned Primark spin review offers a clear, time-bound catalyst to close its conglomerate discount—governance clarity, focused management,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Associated British Foods Inside Story: What You Need to Know About Its Expansion Into Africa & the U.S. South!

Associated British Foods plc (ABF) released its interim financial results for the 24 weeks ending March 1, 2025, showcasing mixed performance...

Baptista Research

Associated British Foods: Initiation of Coverage- Automation & Labor Efficiency As A Pivotal Factor Driving Growth!

Associated British Foods (ABF) has reported a robust financial performance for the 52 weeks ending 14th September 2024, highlighted by substantial...

Baptista Research

Upgrading Emerging Markets to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom; Energy Breakdowns

Upgrading Emerging Markets $EEM $VWO to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom $FXI $MCHI $KWEB; Lows Likely in on $ACWI; Commodities...

Vermilion Research

Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over

​The MSCI $ACWI briefly fell below our $90.50 support but quickly reclaimed, suggesting a false breakdown and the likely end to this pullback in...

Vermilion Research

The MSCI $ACWI briefly fell below our $90.50 support but quickly reclaimed, suggesting a false breakdown and the likely end to this pullback in...