Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In its 14th May quarterly review, MSCI <a href="https://app2.msci.com/eqb/gimi/stdindex/MSCI_May24_STPublicList.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a>  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-cycle-carriage-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:347:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)</a> will be removed from its index effective 31 May. Shares closed down 4.3% on the 15th.</li>
<li>JCNC announced yesterday that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)</a> has lifted its stake to 81.058% from 79.866%. </li>
<li>JCNC is trading rich to its NAV. The simple ratio (JCNC/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a>) is around its highest level outside the 2008 GFC. A takeover from parent Matheson is unlikely.</li>
</ul>


In its 14th May quarterly review, MSCI announced  Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP) will be removed from its index effective 31 May. Shares closed down 4.3% on the 15th.
JCNC announced yesterday that Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP) has lifted its stake to 81.058% from 79.866%. 
JCNC is trading rich to its NAV. The simple ratio (JCNC/Astra International (ASII IJ)) is around its highest level outside the 2008 GFC. A takeover from parent Matheson is unlikely.


Jardines Bumps JCNC Stake Post MSCI Deletion

<ul>
<li>Murakami Group now owns 10.13% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/exedy-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6516:1" rel="noopener">Exedy Corp (7278 JP)</a>. Interestingly, NOMURA Aya sold 6.79% off-market to Minami Aoyama Fudosan. Has the Murakami Group made a "mistake" in its planning?</li>
<li>A big win for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eoflow-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36100:1" rel="noopener">EOFlow (294090 KS)</a> as the U.S. Federal Appeals Court issued its decision on overturning <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/insulet-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5252:1" rel="noopener">Insulet Corp (PODD US)</a>'s provisional injunction</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/l-occitane-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6772:1" rel="noopener">L'Occitane (973 HK)</a> finally announces the share alternative.  And  Pleasant Lake (3.25% of shares out) will accept the share offer (either cash or scrip). This is a done deal</li>
</ul>


Murakami Group now owns 10.13% of Exedy Corp (7278 JP). Interestingly, NOMURA Aya sold 6.79% off-market to Minami Aoyama Fudosan. Has the Murakami Group made a "mistake" in its planning?
A big win for EOFlow (294090 KS) as the U.S. Federal Appeals Court issued its decision on overturning Insulet Corp (PODD US)'s provisional injunction

L'Occitane (973 HK) finally announces the share alternative.  And  Pleasant Lake (3.25% of shares out) will accept the share offer (either cash or scrip). This is a done deal


Last Week in Event SPACE: Exedy Corp, EOFlow, L'Occitane, Jardine Cycle & Carriage

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>While 4W sales remained weak in 5M24 (wholesales of 334.9k, -21% yoy), we expect new models to help boost 2H24F sales.</li><li>Retail sales &gt; wholesales suggests little overstock at dealers, as was also confirmed by lower discounts in May24 (~7%) vs Apr24 (8%).</li><li>We raise our FY24F net profit forecast by 1.4% on higher auto margin assumptions. Rating upgraded to Buy with a TP of Rp5,100.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

While 4W sales remained weak in 5M24 (wholesales of 334.9k, -21% yoy), we expect new models to help boost 2H24F sales.Retail sales &gt; wholesales suggests little overstock at dealers, as was also confirmed by lower discounts in May24 (~7%) vs Apr24 (8%).We raise our FY24F net profit forecast by 1.4% on higher auto margin assumptions. Rating upgraded to Buy with a TP of Rp5,100.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Astra International - Expect New Models to Boost 2H24F Sales

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The past week saw insights on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prodia-widyahusada" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23663:1" rel="noopener">Prodia (PRDA IJ)</a> after a management call and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aem-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11019:1" rel="noopener">AEM (AEM SP)</a> post-management changes, with some economic commentary on Thailand. </li>
<li>There was also an insight on Global Credit Growth from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/daniel-tabbush" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:12" rel="noopener">Daniel Tabbush</a> and the CrossASEAN Ground Zero Insight looking at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vinfast-auto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36550:1" rel="noopener">Vinfast (VFS US)</a>, digital payments, and social commerce player Evermos.</li>
<li>The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across Southeast Asia.</li>
</ul>


The past week saw insights on Prodia (PRDA IJ) after a management call and AEM (AEM SP) post-management changes, with some economic commentary on Thailand. 
There was also an insight on Global Credit Growth from Daniel Tabbush and the CrossASEAN Ground Zero Insight looking at Vinfast (VFS US), digital payments, and social commerce player Evermos.
The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across Southeast Asia.


The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Prodia Ready, AEM, and Vinfast

<ul>
<li>This week we look at Grab's ESG qualities and its recent report along with Vingroup's plans to start EV ride-hailing in Indonesia on top of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vinfast-auto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36550:1" rel="noopener">Vinfast</a>'s commitment to manufacturing. </li>
<li>We also look at how the digital payments space is developing in Indonesia and Vietnam with Momo and Evermos's differentiated social commerce strategy in Indonesia helping to foster entrepreneurialism. </li>
<li>CrossASEAN Ground Zero is a thematic weekly product that focuses on key Southeast Asian themes and technology trends with a core focus on Indonesia.</li>
</ul>


This week we look at Grab's ESG qualities and its recent report along with Vingroup's plans to start EV ride-hailing in Indonesia on top of Vinfast's commitment to manufacturing. 
We also look at how the digital payments space is developing in Indonesia and Vietnam with Momo and Evermos's differentiated social commerce strategy in Indonesia helping to foster entrepreneurialism. 
CrossASEAN Ground Zero is a thematic weekly product that focuses on key Southeast Asian themes and technology trends with a core focus on Indonesia.


CrossASEAN Ground Zero - Grab's ESG Credentials, Vinfast in Indonesia, Digital Payments, and Evermos

Indonesia

PT Astra International Tbk assembles and distributes automobiles, motorcycles, and their related spare parts.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company also operates in the mining, development of plantations, financial and information technology.

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Astra International (ASII IJ)

Jardines Bumps JCNC Stake Post MSCI Deletion

Jardine Matheson clears 83% in JCNC, up from ~78% at the beginning of the year. I see JCNC's NAV PREMIUM at 17%, down from a recent high of 29%....

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Exedy Corp, EOFlow, L'Occitane, Jardine Cycle & Carriage

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Astra International - Expect New Models to Boost 2H24F Sales

We raise our FY24F net profit forecast by 1.4% on higher auto margin assumptions. Rating upgraded to Buy with a TP of Rp5,100.

BRI Danareksa Research

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Prodia Ready, AEM, and Vinfast

The past week saw insights on Prodia (PRDA IJ) after a management call and AEM (AEM SP) post-management changes, with some economic commentary on...

Angus Mackintosh

CrossASEAN Ground Zero - Grab's ESG Credentials, Vinfast in Indonesia, Digital Payments, and Evermos

This week we look at Grab's ESG qualities and its recent report along with Vingroup's plans to start EV ride-hailing in Indonesia on top of...

Angus Mackintosh

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