ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a> just released 1Q2024 results, which reflected the softer auto and heavy equipment markets, although buoyed by better earnings for its finance arm, </li>
<li>The company's headline net profit was down -14% YoY but stripping out value adjustments was only down -5% YoY, with management optimistic over the longer term. </li>
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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra</a> continues to mirror the Indonesian economy, with its latest investment in geothermal but its nickel businesses also growing. Valuations attractive on 6.6x FY2024E PER and a 7.2% dividend yield. </li>
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Astra International (ASII IJ) just released 1Q2024 results, which reflected the softer auto and heavy equipment markets, although buoyed by better earnings for its finance arm, 
The company's headline net profit was down -14% YoY but stripping out value adjustments was only down -5% YoY, with management optimistic over the longer term. 

Astra continues to mirror the Indonesian economy, with its latest investment in geothermal but its nickel businesses also growing. Valuations attractive on 6.6x FY2024E PER and a 7.2% dividend yield. 


Astra International (ASII IJ) - Striking a Balance with Finance

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

<ul><li>We expect consolidated 1Q24E revenue and NP of ~Rp76-77t/~Rp8.5- 8.6t, hence possible inline revenue but earnings ahead vs seasonality.</li><li>Despite this, the 1Q24E performance may see more support from UNTR to possibly offset weak auto segment performance.</li><li>We maintain our FY24-25F forecasts pending the 1Q24 earnings, but see a challenging outlook for auto sales as a key risk for FY24F estimates.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect consolidated 1Q24E revenue and NP of ~Rp76-77t/~Rp8.5- 8.6t, hence possible inline revenue but earnings ahead vs seasonality.Despite this, the 1Q24E performance may see more support from UNTR to possibly offset weak auto segment performance.We maintain our FY24-25F forecasts pending the 1Q24 earnings, but see a challenging outlook for auto sales as a key risk for FY24F estimates.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Astra International (ASII) - 1Q24 Preview: Possible Decent Headline Figures

<ul><li>4W sales numbers in Feb24 were rather weak despite strong IIMS sales (+23% yoy). We expect a boost to 1Q24 sales from Lebaran.</li><li>ASII expects to launch new PHEV/BEV in the next 2 years. In 2024, ASII is looking to launch Avanza/Rush HEV, which should improve 4W sales</li><li>We slightly adjust our FY24F/FY25F numbers. Our new TP is Rp5,600 (- 1.7%), with a HOLD rating</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

4W sales numbers in Feb24 were rather weak despite strong IIMS sales (+23% yoy). We expect a boost to 1Q24 sales from Lebaran.ASII expects to launch new PHEV/BEV in the next 2 years. In 2024, ASII is looking to launch Avanza/Rush HEV, which should improve 4W salesWe slightly adjust our FY24F/FY25F numbers. Our new TP is Rp5,600 (- 1.7%), with a HOLD ratingContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Astra International - Pinning Hopes on Lebaran and New Models

<ul><li>We just attended a discussion on EV that was hosted by several ministry representatives.</li><li>The govt is supportive of EV offering multiple incentives. We are quite surprised by the easiness in gaining TKDN 40% to obtain the incentives.</li><li>Hybrid subsides, however, are not inline with the government’s goal. This puts ASII at a disadvantage. Reiterate HOLD rating on ASII</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We just attended a discussion on EV that was hosted by several ministry representatives.The govt is supportive of EV offering multiple incentives. We are quite surprised by the easiness in gaining TKDN 40% to obtain the incentives.Hybrid subsides, however, are not inline with the government’s goal. This puts ASII at a disadvantage. Reiterate HOLD rating on ASIIContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Astra International (ASII) - Hybrid Incentive Are Off for Now

<ul><li>ASII’s FY23 earnings inline with consensus (below ours), albeit with weaker 4Q23 qoq on auto</li><li>We think weaker auto segment’s in 4Q23 revenue may indicate higher discounting, yet we think it was a seasonal trend</li><li>ASII proposes dividends of Rp421/share (8% yield), which is historical high, ex-FY22. Maintain Hold rating and TP of Rp 5,700</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ASII’s FY23 earnings inline with consensus (below ours), albeit with weaker 4Q23 qoq on autoWe think weaker auto segment’s in 4Q23 revenue may indicate higher discounting, yet we think it was a seasonal trendASII proposes dividends of Rp421/share (8% yield), which is historical high, ex-FY22. Maintain Hold rating and TP of Rp 5,700Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Astra International - Inline FY23 Earnings, Seasonal Weaker Auto Segment in 4Q23

Indonesia

PT Astra International Tbk assembles and distributes automobiles, motorcycles, and their related spare parts.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company also operates in the mining, development of plantations, financial and information technology.

Astra International (ASII IJ)