External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>ASII’s FY23 earnings inline with consensus (below ours), albeit with weaker 4Q23 qoq on auto</li><li>We think weaker auto segment’s in 4Q23 revenue may indicate higher discounting, yet we think it was a seasonal trend</li><li>ASII proposes dividends of Rp421/share (8% yield), which is historical high, ex-FY22. Maintain Hold rating and TP of Rp 5,700</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ASII’s FY23 earnings inline with consensus (below ours), albeit with weaker 4Q23 qoq on autoWe think weaker auto segment’s in 4Q23 revenue may indicate higher discounting, yet we think it was a seasonal trendASII proposes dividends of Rp421/share (8% yield), which is historical high, ex-FY22. Maintain Hold rating and TP of Rp 5,700Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Astra International - Inline FY23 Earnings, Seasonal Weaker Auto Segment in 4Q23

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International</a> booked record earnings for 2023 despite some softening of commodities, driven by strong performance from the auto division and financing plus the strong performance from motorcycles. </li>
<li>Astra has continued to invest in growth areas of the Indonesian economy with investments last year in the EV battery ecosystem, increased exposure to healthcare, and investment in data centres.</li>
<li>Management flagged a potential 2H cyclical downturn but it is well-diversified enough to weather this. Valuations look attractive on 6.8x FY2024E PER and with a 6.6% dividend yield.</li>
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Astra International booked record earnings for 2023 despite some softening of commodities, driven by strong performance from the auto division and financing plus the strong performance from motorcycles. 
Astra has continued to invest in growth areas of the Indonesian economy with investments last year in the EV battery ecosystem, increased exposure to healthcare, and investment in data centres.
Management flagged a potential 2H cyclical downturn but it is well-diversified enough to weather this. Valuations look attractive on 6.8x FY2024E PER and with a 6.6% dividend yield.


Astra International (ASII IJ) - Indonesia's Mirror Image

<ul><li>Recent findings and recalls from Toyota and Daihatsu Japan, and also ASII, create persisting negative ST sentiment on ASII’s share price.</li><li>Nonetheless, we estimate that the new progressive tax rate will have a minimal impact on ASII.</li><li>Despite an exciting EV line-up, infrastructure remains an issue for EV to gain more adoption. We maintain Hold rating on ASII and TP of Rp5,700.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Recent findings and recalls from Toyota and Daihatsu Japan, and also ASII, create persisting negative ST sentiment on ASII’s share price.Nonetheless, we estimate that the new progressive tax rate will have a minimal impact on ASII.Despite an exciting EV line-up, infrastructure remains an issue for EV to gain more adoption. We maintain Hold rating on ASII and TP of Rp5,700.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Astra Internasional (ASII) - Not yet Time to Turn Positive

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International</a> has seen an aggressive sell-off on fears of increasing competition from the EV space as more operators enter the Indonesian auto market, with the most recent being <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD</a>.</li>
<li>The company has successfully held its market share at 56% in FY2023 and has launched several EV models, mostly hybrids,  as adoption levels for BEVs remain low.</li>
<li>Management remains confident that FY2024 will be a stable year for both 2W and 4W, with overall EPS only set to decline slightly but valuations are now compelling.</li>
</ul>



Astra International has seen an aggressive sell-off on fears of increasing competition from the EV space as more operators enter the Indonesian auto market, with the most recent being BYD.
The company has successfully held its market share at 56% in FY2023 and has launched several EV models, mostly hybrids,  as adoption levels for BEVs remain low.
Management remains confident that FY2024 will be a stable year for both 2W and 4W, with overall EPS only set to decline slightly but valuations are now compelling.


Astra International (ASII IJ) - Opportunity Knocks

<ul><li>Our study concludes that the economic benefit of hybrids/EV in Indonesia is still in question, hence ICE should sustain its dominance. </li><li>We forecast ASII’s net profit to decline by 10% YoY in FY24F, as we expect recovery in 4W sales to be offset by weaker mining segments. </li><li>We have a HOLD rating on ASII with a TP of Rp5,700. While the current valuation prices in earnings downside, ASII lacks ST catalysts</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Our study concludes that the economic benefit of hybrids/EV in Indonesia is still in question, hence ICE should sustain its dominance. We forecast ASII’s net profit to decline by 10% YoY in FY24F, as we expect recovery in 4W sales to be offset by weaker mining segments. We have a HOLD rating on ASII with a TP of Rp5,700. While the current valuation prices in earnings downside, ASII lacks ST catalystsContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Astra Internasional - ICE Should Sustain Its Dominance in the 4W Market, but Lacks ST Catalysts

Indonesia

PT Astra International Tbk assembles and distributes automobiles, motorcycles, and their related spare parts.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company also operates in the mining, development of plantations, financial and information technology.

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Astra International (ASII IJ)

Astra International - Inline FY23 Earnings, Seasonal Weaker Auto Segment in 4Q23

ASII proposes dividends of Rp421/share (8% yield), which is historical high, ex-FY22. Maintain Hold rating and TP of Rp 5,700

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