Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Back on the 8th June 2022, IFM Global Infrastructure Fund announced a 15% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/atlas-arteria-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14430:1" rel="noopener">Atlas Arteria (ALX AU)</a> (ATLAX), and subsequently floated the possibility of a non-binding proposal. </li>
<li>However, IFM's request, at the time, for limited company information on ATLAX , a US/Europe toll-road play, came to nought.</li>
<li>Undeterred, IFM continues to accumulate shares. Reportedly, IFM now holds ~35% after picking up 1.9% this morning.</li>
</ul>


Back on the 8th June 2022, IFM Global Infrastructure Fund announced a 15% stake in Atlas Arteria (ALX AU) (ATLAX), and subsequently floated the possibility of a non-binding proposal. 
However, IFM's request, at the time, for limited company information on ATLAX , a US/Europe toll-road play, came to nought.
Undeterred, IFM continues to accumulate shares. Reportedly, IFM now holds ~35% after picking up 1.9% this morning.


Atlas Arteria (ALX AU): IFM Creeps To A ~35% Stake

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

<ul>
<li>
Context: The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/atlas-arteria-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14430:1" rel="noopener">Atlas Arteria (ALX AU)</a> vs. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/transurban-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:593:1" rel="noopener">Transurban (TCL AU)</a> price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value mean-reversion opportunity.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Going long Atlas Arteria (ALX AU) and short Transurban (TCL AU) targets a 3% return, with Atlas Arteria (ALX AU) supported by more attractive valuations.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.</li>
</ul>



Context: The Atlas Arteria (ALX AU) vs. Transurban (TCL AU) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value mean-reversion opportunity.

Highlights: Going long Atlas Arteria (ALX AU) and short Transurban (TCL AU) targets a 3% return, with Atlas Arteria (ALX AU) supported by more attractive valuations.

Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.


Long Atlas Arteria (ALX AU) Vs. Short Transurban (TCL AU): Pair Trade in ASX Infrastructure Stocks

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Nearing the end of the review period, we forecast no inclusions to the index in September. There could be up to 3 deletions at the review though.</li>
<li>Even if there are no constituent changes, capping changes will lead to one-way turnover of 3.8% and a round-trip trade of A$232m.</li>
<li>If there are 3 deletes as forecast, one-way turnover increases to 6.3% resulting in a round-trip trade of A$384m.</li>
</ul>


Nearing the end of the review period, we forecast no inclusions to the index in September. There could be up to 3 deletions at the review though.
Even if there are no constituent changes, capping changes will lead to one-way turnover of 3.8% and a round-trip trade of A$232m.
If there are 3 deletes as forecast, one-way turnover increases to 6.3% resulting in a round-trip trade of A$384m.


MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Three Potential Deletions in September

<ul>
<li>
Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Currently twelve pair trade opportunities across four markets and five sectors persist.</li>
<li>
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

Highlights: Currently twelve pair trade opportunities across four markets and five sectors persist.

Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (1 Dec)

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Nov 21st (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD26.3bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in James Hardie Industries, Atlas Arteria, Sonic Healthcare, Coles, Life360.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Nov 21st (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD26.3bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in James Hardie Industries, Atlas Arteria, Sonic Healthcare, Coles, Life360.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Nov 21st): James Hardie Industries, Atlas Arteria, Sonic Healthcare

Australia

Atlas Arteria Limted operates as an infrastructure developer and operator. The Company constructs highways, roads, bridges, and tunnels. Atlas Arteria also collects toll. Atlas Arteria serves clients worldwide.

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Atlas Arteria (ALX AU)