Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>TCOM US/ ATAT US: China Extends Transit Visa-Free Policy to 240 Hours(+/+)</li>
<li>1024 HK: Kuaishou Introduces Subscription Service for Micro Drama Business (+)</li>
<li>700 HK/1439927D CH/BIDU US: Apple Negotiates with Tencent and ByteDance to Launch AI Features in China (+/+/-)</li>
</ul>


TCOM US/ ATAT US: China Extends Transit Visa-Free Policy to 240 Hours(+/+)
1024 HK: Kuaishou Introduces Subscription Service for Micro Drama Business (+)
700 HK/1439927D CH/BIDU US: Apple Negotiates with Tencent and ByteDance to Launch AI Features in China (+/+/-)


[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:TCOM US/ ATAT US/1024 HK/700 HK/1439927D CH /BIDU/3690 HK/JD/BABA/PDD

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

<ul>
<li>Given Trump’s overhaul of US economy and world trade, US interest rate may stay high and Renminbi might depreciate further, both negative for our sectors from a foreign investor perspective;</li>
<li>We expect China to respond strongly to Trump Tariff 2.0, which will necessitate bigger stimulus, leading to a scenario of a policy overdose;</li>
<li>We look for: (1) high dividend yield, (2) US-dollar exposure, (3) policy overdose in stock selection. We add TRIP and ATAT to our DMC and reiterate our MMC  portfolios</li>
</ul>


Given Trump’s overhaul of US economy and world trade, US interest rate may stay high and Renminbi might depreciate further, both negative for our sectors from a foreign investor perspective;
We expect China to respond strongly to Trump Tariff 2.0, which will necessitate bigger stimulus, leading to a scenario of a policy overdose;
We look for: (1) high dividend yield, (2) US-dollar exposure, (3) policy overdose in stock selection. We add TRIP and ATAT to our DMC and reiterate our MMC  portfolios


Invest in China Growth Equity in High-Rate Environment

<ul>
<li>BEKE US: Property Transactions Remained Strong in November, with Accelerated Growth in the Final Week.(+)</li>
<li>BZ US/3690 HK/TCOM US/ATAT US: Manufacturing PMI Slightly Exceeds Consensus in November, While Service PMI Falls Below; Hiring Intentions Remain Low.(-/-/-/-)</li>
<li>ZTO US/ BABA US/VIPS US: China parcel volume delivery grew 40% yoy in the prior week (+/+/+)</li>
</ul>


BEKE US: Property Transactions Remained Strong in November, with Accelerated Growth in the Final Week.(+)
BZ US/3690 HK/TCOM US/ATAT US: Manufacturing PMI Slightly Exceeds Consensus in November, While Service PMI Falls Below; Hiring Intentions Remain Low.(-/-/-/-)
ZTO US/ BABA US/VIPS US: China parcel volume delivery grew 40% yoy in the prior week (+/+/+)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:BEKE US/BZ US/3690 HK/TCOM US/ATAT US/ZTO US/ BABA US/VIPS US

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We compare Trip.com's Revenue, Operating Income, &amp; Net Income to the Chinese airlines</li>
<li>Trip.com has done a better job of converting revenue growth to improved profitability</li>
<li>Trip.com YTD execution impressive, but we see no near-term upside in share price</li>
</ul>


We compare Trip.com's Revenue, Operating Income, &amp; Net Income to the Chinese airlines
Trip.com has done a better job of converting revenue growth to improved profitability
Trip.com YTD execution impressive, but we see no near-term upside in share price


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Trip.com YTD 2024 Performance Vs. Three Leading Chinese Airlines

Atour Lifestyle Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Atour (ATAT) reported C3Q24 revenue 2.3% lower than our estimate but 4.8% higher than consensus. The net income beat our estimate/consensus by 6.6%/9.5%, thanks to disciplined cost controls.</li>
<li>Although RevPAR weakened in C3Q24 as expected, turnaround is coming already in C4Q24. We also expect moderate RevPAR growth in 2025.</li>
<li>We keep the TP at US$37/ADS and maintain a TOP BUY on Atour.</li>
</ul>


Atour (ATAT) reported C3Q24 revenue 2.3% lower than our estimate but 4.8% higher than consensus. The net income beat our estimate/consensus by 6.6%/9.5%, thanks to disciplined cost controls.
Although RevPAR weakened in C3Q24 as expected, turnaround is coming already in C4Q24. We also expect moderate RevPAR growth in 2025.
We keep the TP at US$37/ADS and maintain a TOP BUY on Atour.


[Atour (ATAT US, BUY, TP US$37) Review]: Small Differences Here & There but Overall Case Intact

China

Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, owns and manages midscale hotel chain through offline and online channels, including mobile application and weixin-wechat mini program. Atour Lifestyle Holdings serves customers in China.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Atour Lifestyle Holdings (ATAT US)

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:TCOM US/ ATAT US/1024 HK/700 HK/1439927D CH /BIDU/3690 HK/JD/BABA/PDD

China expands visa-free transit policy, Kuaishou offers subscription service for micro dramas, Apple in talks with Tencent and ByteDance for AI...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Invest in China Growth Equity in High-Rate Environment

Trump's policies may lead to high US interest rates and a depreciating Renminbi. As remedy outside of buying high dividend stocks, we propose a...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:BEKE US/BZ US/3690 HK/TCOM US/ATAT US/ZTO US/ BABA US/VIPS US

Property transactions in the US remained strong in November, with accelerated growth in the final week. Manufacturing PMI slightly exceeds...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Trip.com YTD 2024 Performance Vs. Three Leading Chinese Airlines

We compare Trip.com's and the three leading Chinese airlines' YTD financial performance. Trip.com has done a better job vs the airlines of...

Tracking Traffic

[Atour (ATAT US, BUY, TP US$37) Review]: Small Differences Here & There but Overall Case Intact

Atour beats revenue estimates and shows strong cost controls, expecting RevPAR growth in 2025. Maintains top buy rating with TP at US$37/ADS.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:TCOM US/ ATAT US/1024 HK/700 HK/1439927D CH /BIDU/3690 HK/JD/BABA/PDD

​China expands visa-free transit policy, Kuaishou offers subscription service for micro dramas, Apple in talks with Tencent and ByteDance for AI...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Invest in China Growth Equity in High-Rate Environment

​Trump's policies may lead to high US interest rates and a depreciating Renminbi. As remedy outside of buying high dividend stocks, we propose a...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:BEKE US/BZ US/3690 HK/TCOM US/ATAT US/ZTO US/ BABA US/VIPS US

​Property transactions in the US remained strong in November, with accelerated growth in the final week. Manufacturing PMI slightly exceeds...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Trip.com YTD 2024 Performance Vs. Three Leading Chinese Airlines

We compare Trip.com's and the three leading Chinese airlines' YTD financial performance. Trip.com has done a better job vs the airlines of...

Tracking Traffic

[Atour (ATAT US, BUY, TP US$37) Review]: Small Differences Here & There but Overall Case Intact

​Atour beats revenue estimates and shows strong cost controls, expecting RevPAR growth in 2025. Maintains top buy rating with TP at US$37/ADS.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China expands visa-free transit policy, Kuaishou offers subscription service for micro dramas, Apple in talks with Tencent and ByteDance for AI...

Trump's policies may lead to high US interest rates and a depreciating Renminbi. As remedy outside of buying high dividend stocks, we propose a...

Property transactions in the US remained strong in November, with accelerated growth in the final week. Manufacturing PMI slightly exceeds...

Atour beats revenue estimates and shows strong cost controls, expecting RevPAR growth in 2025. Maintains top buy rating with TP at US$37/ADS.