Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

Atour Lifestyle Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Atour reported 3Q23 revenue 6.4%/17.1% higher than our estimate/consensus, non-GAAP NI 5.5%/9.1% higher than our estimate/consensus.</li>
<li>We expect Atour 4Q23/2023 RevPAR recovered to 107%/114% of 2019 level, and revenue to increase 104%/96% YoY respectively. </li>
<li>We maintain the stock as BUY rating, and raised TP by US$1 to US$37.5, reflecting the rapid growth of retail product sales. </li>
</ul>


Atour reported 3Q23 revenue 6.4%/17.1% higher than our estimate/consensus, non-GAAP NI 5.5%/9.1% higher than our estimate/consensus.
We expect Atour 4Q23/2023 RevPAR recovered to 107%/114% of 2019 level, and revenue to increase 104%/96% YoY respectively. 
We maintain the stock as BUY rating, and raised TP by US$1 to US$37.5, reflecting the rapid growth of retail product sales. 


[Atour Lifestyle (ATAT US, BUY, TP US$37.5) Target Price Change]: Brand Value Brings Premium Sales

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

<ul>
<li>September outbound tourism metrics plummeted, in some cases to levels seen in Q223</li>
<li>Domestic air travel demand also fell vs August; normal seasonal patterns are dominating</li>
<li>As recovery fizzles, travel shares languish, and we see few reasons for optimism, near-term</li>
</ul>


September outbound tourism metrics plummeted, in some cases to levels seen in Q223
Domestic air travel demand also fell vs August; normal seasonal patterns are dominating
As recovery fizzles, travel shares languish, and we see few reasons for optimism, near-term


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Tourism Recovery Derailed By Normal Seasonality | (October 2023)

<ul>
<li>Outbound daily traffic during the long holiday down -15% vs 2019, and short of expectations</li>
<li>Total domestic trips up 4% vs 2019, but average daily trips -9% &amp; average daily spending -4%</li>
<li>Ten months in, the pace of China's 2023 tourism recovery remains disappointingly sluggish</li>
</ul>


Outbound daily traffic during the long holiday down -15% vs 2019, and short of expectations
Total domestic trips up 4% vs 2019, but average daily trips -9% &amp; average daily spending -4%
Ten months in, the pace of China's 2023 tourism recovery remains disappointingly sluggish


Quick Take on 'Golden Week' Headline Tourism Traffic: Limited Improvement, & Shy of Expectations

<ul>
<li>August outbound travel activity surged against easy 2022 comps, but offered no surprises</li>
<li>The pace of outbound capacity rebuild slowed in August -- what do airlines see ahead?</li>
<li>Is there really "pent-up" tourism demand among Chinese consumers? We don't think so</li>
</ul>


August outbound travel activity surged against easy 2022 comps, but offered no surprises
The pace of outbound capacity rebuild slowed in August -- what do airlines see ahead?
Is there really "pent-up" tourism demand among Chinese consumers? We don't think so


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | 'Pent-Up' Travel Demand -- Does China Have Any? | (September 2023)

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>2Q23 result was a beat and FY23E guidance was raised.</li><li>With the tracking trend in 3Q23E, we are still optimistic about hospitality sector and expect Atour to outperform, driven by its attractive price range and leading customer satisfaction.</li><li>However, we should stay cautious about macro risks and investors should exit if it continues to deteriorate. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

2Q23 result was a beat and FY23E guidance was raised.With the tracking trend in 3Q23E, we are still optimistic about hospitality sector and expect Atour to outperform, driven by its attractive price range and leading customer satisfaction.However, we should stay cautious about macro risks and investors should exit if it continues to deteriorate. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Atour Lifestyle (ATAT US) – Remain Cautiously Optimistic After a Solid 2Q23

China

Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, owns and manages midscale hotel chain through offline and online channels, including mobile application and weixin-wechat mini program. Atour Lifestyle Holdings serves customers in China.

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Atour Lifestyle Holdings (ATAT US)

[Atour Lifestyle (ATAT US, BUY, TP US$37.5) Target Price Change]: Brand Value Brings Premium Sales

Atour's 3Q23 revenue and non-GAAP NI exceeded estimates, and we predict strong recovery in RevPAR and revenue for 4Q23 and 2023. We maintain a BUY...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Tourism Recovery Derailed By Normal Seasonality | (October 2023)

Outbound tourism activity in September declined vs August, in some cases down to levels seen in Q2. Domestic activity also disappointed, and we see...

Tracking Traffic

Quick Take on 'Golden Week' Headline Tourism Traffic: Limited Improvement, & Shy of Expectations

Preliminary tourism activity data from the long Golden Week holiday period appear to show a frustratingly sluggish recovery in Chinese travel demand.

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | 'Pent-Up' Travel Demand -- Does China Have Any? | (September 2023)

What is "pent-up" demand, and nine months into a recovery in travel activity, does China still have any? We review outbound activity, domestic...

Tracking Traffic

Atour Lifestyle (ATAT US) – Remain Cautiously Optimistic After a Solid 2Q23

With the tracking trend in 3Q23E, we are still optimistic about hospitality sector and expect Atour to outperform, driven by its attractive price...

CMB International

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