New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We expect Auckland Airport (AIA) to deliver a robust first-half result, with underlying NPAT of ~NZ$160m, up +8% year-on-year.</li><li>Notwithstanding anticipated 1H26 earnings growth, we expect AIA to hold its interim dividend flat, reflecting: (1) an expected earnings decline through 2H26 as depreciation and interest cost headwinds mount; (2) elevated near-term capex requirements, and (3) per share dilution from the prior year capital raise.</li><li>Earnings growth is being driven by aeronautical price increases (despite the post Commerce Commission [ComCom] review price cut), increased pax as the slow COVID recovery continues, and a full half of Mānawa Bay supporting property rental income.</li></ul>

We expect Auckland Airport (AIA) to deliver a robust first-half result, with underlying NPAT of ~NZ$160m, up +8% year-on-year.Notwithstanding anticipated 1H26 earnings growth, we expect AIA to hold its interim dividend flat, reflecting: (1) an expected earnings decline through 2H26 as depreciation and interest cost headwinds mount; (2) elevated near-term capex requirements, and (3) per share dilution from the prior year capital raise.Earnings growth is being driven by aeronautical price increases (despite the post Commerce Commission [ComCom] review price cut), increased pax as the slow COVID recovery continues, and a full half of Mānawa Bay supporting property rental income.

Auckland Airport 1H26 Preview—Dividend To Disappoint?

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Airline schedule data highlights an incremental, wait-and-see response by airlines to higher fuel prices.</li><li>Air New Zealand (AIR) has cut services (predominantly short-haul focused) through to July 2026, with 2H26 capacity now marginally below the mid-point of guidance provided (and subsequently withdrawn) at the 1H26 result.</li><li>Auckland Airport’s (AIA) scheduled seat capacity for 2H26 has declined by -3% since the crisis began, with some airlines making adjustments through to late 2026.</li></ul>

Airline schedule data highlights an incremental, wait-and-see response by airlines to higher fuel prices.Air New Zealand (AIR) has cut services (predominantly short-haul focused) through to July 2026, with 2H26 capacity now marginally below the mid-point of guidance provided (and subsequently withdrawn) at the 1H26 result.Auckland Airport’s (AIA) scheduled seat capacity for 2H26 has declined by -3% since the crisis began, with some airlines making adjustments through to late 2026.

Aviation Sector Checking In On Capacity Cuts

<ul>
<li>Most of our companies under coverage have reasonable fuel price mitigations; for example, contracted pass-through mechanisms, which may mean some temporary margin pressure, but leaving them net neutral through the fuel price cycle, subject to any demand response.</li>
<li>Port of Tauranga (POT)’s 1H26 result was strong, with earnings growth supported by pricing increases, while cargo volumes remain constrained by container terminal capacity.</li>
<li>An Air &amp; Ocean beneficiary from the impact of higher fuel costs on freight rates.</li>
</ul>


Most of our companies under coverage have reasonable fuel price mitigations; for example, contracted pass-through mechanisms, which may mean some temporary margin pressure, but leaving them net neutral through the fuel price cycle, subject to any demand response.
Port of Tauranga (POT)’s 1H26 result was strong, with earnings growth supported by pricing increases, while cargo volumes remain constrained by container terminal capacity.
An Air &amp; Ocean beneficiary from the impact of higher fuel costs on freight rates.


Transport Trends - Fuel Costs Have Cracked

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Sep 25th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD49.0bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Steadfast, Wesfarmers, Macquarie, Ampol, BHP.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Sep 25th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD49.0bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Steadfast, Wesfarmers, Macquarie, Ampol, BHP.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 25th): Steadfast, Wesfarmers, Macquarie, Ampol, BHP

<ul><li>Christmas cheer is in the air as transport markets are finally showing signs of life, particularly those reliant on New Zealand end-demand.</li><li>2026 is shaping up as a year of recovery. Profitability should collectively improve across all modes, as any excess capacity is partially filled by improving demand, pricing behaviour remains rational, and cost control measures will likely linger late into the up-cycle.</li><li>Our preferred cyclical recovery exposure is OUTPERFORM rated Mainfreight (MFT), given earnings growth support from its Australian and European operations.</li></ul>

Christmas cheer is in the air as transport markets are finally showing signs of life, particularly those reliant on New Zealand end-demand.2026 is shaping up as a year of recovery. Profitability should collectively improve across all modes, as any excess capacity is partially filled by improving demand, pricing behaviour remains rational, and cost control measures will likely linger late into the up-cycle.Our preferred cyclical recovery exposure is OUTPERFORM rated Mainfreight (MFT), given earnings growth support from its Australian and European operations.

New Zealand

Auckland International Airport Limited owns and operates the Auckland International Airport.  The Airport includes a single runway, an international terminal and two domestic terminals.  The Airport also has commercial facilities which includes airfreight operations, car rental services, commercial banking center and office buildings.

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Auckland Intl Airport (AIA NZ)

Auckland Airport 1H26 Preview—Dividend To Disappoint?

Earnings growth is being driven by aeronautical price increases (despite the post Commerce Commission [ComCom] review price cut), increased pax as...

Forsyth Barr

Aviation Sector Checking In On Capacity Cuts

Airline schedule data highlights an incremental, wait-and-see response by airlines to higher fuel prices. Air New Zealand (AIR) has cut services...

Forsyth Barr

Transport Trends - Fuel Costs Have Cracked

Port of Tauranga (POT)’s 1H26 result was strong, with earnings growth supported by pricing increases, while cargo volumes remain constrained by...

Forsyth Barr

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 25th): Steadfast, Wesfarmers, Macquarie, Ampol, BHP

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Steadfast, Wesfarmers, Macquarie, Ampol, BHP.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Transport Trends Getting Into Gear

Christmas cheer is in the air as transport markets are finally showing signs of life, particularly those reliant on New Zealand end-demand.

Forsyth Barr

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