External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>Market sentiment continues to shift in favour of the USD, according to the latest Commitments of Traders data from the CFTC for the week through last Tuesday.</li><li>Non-Commercial (speculative) traders took a small net USD short position to a sizeable net USD long position overall, via a USD10bn swing in aggregate positioning in the major currencies we monitor for this report.</li><li>Additional data shows Leveraged (hedge fund) traders cutting their USD4bn net USD short from last week to near flat while Real Money (institutional) halved their net USD short over the week to a little less than USD9bn.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Market sentiment continues to shift in favour of the USD, according to the latest Commitments of Traders data from the CFTC for the week through last Tuesday.Non-Commercial (speculative) traders took a small net USD short position to a sizeable net USD long position overall, via a USD10bn swing in aggregate positioning in the major currencies we monitor for this report.Additional data shows Leveraged (hedge fund) traders cutting their USD4bn net USD short from last week to near flat while Real Money (institutional) halved their net USD short over the week to a little less than USD9bn.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Speculative Sentiment Turns USD Bullish

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>It’s been a relatively uneventful week, and we haven’t been overly active as we await September trends for our portfolio.</li><li>Examining our underlying model package, we’ve identified two major themes worth noting for the month ahead: the sudden weakness in China and the impending drawdown in USD liquidity.</li><li>Starting with China, we’ve highlighted how pollution levels are plummeting, while congestion data from ports, roads, and metros declined significantly in August.</li></ul>

It’s been a relatively uneventful week, and we haven’t been overly active as we await September trends for our portfolio.Examining our underlying model package, we’ve identified two major themes worth noting for the month ahead: the sudden weakness in China and the impending drawdown in USD liquidity.Starting with China, we’ve highlighted how pollution levels are plummeting, while congestion data from ports, roads, and metros declined significantly in August.

Portfolio Watch: Preparing for a nasty September due to liquidity

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Hello and welcome back to our weekly positioning update.</li><li>Markets are as tricky as always, as everyone is trying to grasp how Powell will address all the new information coming out of the labor market recently, with NFP constantly being revised down, California job gains revised down massively while jobless claims look less scary.</li><li>Despite parts of the labor market looking slightly weak, the signs we are getting from the real estate market is looking strong in contrast, which could make the Jackson Hole symposium a bit more interesting as Fed are starting to focus (almost) solely on their Employment / Growth mandate.</li></ul>

Hello and welcome back to our weekly positioning update.Markets are as tricky as always, as everyone is trying to grasp how Powell will address all the new information coming out of the labor market recently, with NFP constantly being revised down, California job gains revised down massively while jobless claims look less scary.Despite parts of the labor market looking slightly weak, the signs we are getting from the real estate market is looking strong in contrast, which could make the Jackson Hole symposium a bit more interesting as Fed are starting to focus (almost) solely on their Employment / Growth mandate.

Positioning Watch – Markets are much more sceptical on the Euro zone than the US and UK

<ul><li>After a tricky few days, we have started gaining substantial traction in our portfolio again over the past 1-2 trading days.</li><li>Risk assets seem to be stabilizing, with crypto leading a new bull wave, while metals are selling off right, left, and center alongside a turning tide in the USD versus Asian FX and Lat-Am FX overall.</li><li>Over the week, our biggest concern, given our current tilt in industrial metals, is that manufacturing rebounds faster than anticipated by many.</li></ul>

After a tricky few days, we have started gaining substantial traction in our portfolio again over the past 1-2 trading days.Risk assets seem to be stabilizing, with crypto leading a new bull wave, while metals are selling off right, left, and center alongside a turning tide in the USD versus Asian FX and Lat-Am FX overall.Over the week, our biggest concern, given our current tilt in industrial metals, is that manufacturing rebounds faster than anticipated by many.

Portfolio Watch: Here Comes the Metals Meltdown...

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.</li><li>The debates about whether the US is heading for a recession are still touring the charts, as the labor market and other economic data soften back towards pre-pandemic levels.</li><li>However, while some might be uncomfortable watching the US economy slow more than anticipated, the lack of ringing alarm bells and Powell’s recent victory lap on inflation have greenlighted markets to price in a soft landing as a 95-99% probability event by now when looking across positioning data.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.The debates about whether the US is heading for a recession are still touring the charts, as the labor market and other economic data soften back towards pre-pandemic levels.However, while some might be uncomfortable watching the US economy slow more than anticipated, the lack of ringing alarm bells and Powell’s recent victory lap on inflation have greenlighted markets to price in a soft landing as a 95-99% probability event by now when looking across positioning data.

Positioning Watch – The Soft Landing Is Moving Towards a Recovery Trade

Australia

The Australian dollar is the official currency of the Commonwealth of Australia.

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AUD (USDAUD CURNCY)

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Speculative Sentiment Turns USD Bullish

Market sentiment continues to shift in favour of the USD, according to the latest Commitments of Traders data from the CFTC for the week through...

Scotiabank

Portfolio Watch: Preparing for a nasty September due to liquidity

It’s been a relatively uneventful week, and we haven’t been overly active as we await September trends for our portfolio. Examining our underlying...

Steno Research

Positioning Watch – Markets are much more sceptical on the Euro zone than the US and UK

Hello and welcome back to our weekly positioning update. Markets are as tricky as always, as everyone is trying to grasp how Powell will address...

Steno Research

Portfolio Watch: Here Comes the Metals Meltdown...

After a tricky few days, we have started gaining substantial traction in our portfolio again over the past 1-2 trading days.

Steno Research

Positioning Watch – The Soft Landing Is Moving Towards a Recovery Trade

Overall positioning and sentiment indicators are starting to diverge, though. Most indicators show continued support for risk assets in H2.

Steno Research

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