Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Take-aways upfront: The USD looks to have broken the clear downtrend from Q3/Q4 last year, but the combination of rising inflation expectations and potential cuts from the Fed allows USD real-rates to diminish compared to peers.</li><li>The growth/liquidity outlook in the US still looks to outperform the outlook in Europe/Asia, and the implied outperformance of US equities will continue to put downward pressure on the USD from an FX hedging perspective.</li><li>If we are on the verge of a commodity bull run paired with increased momentum in Asia, markets will likely seek further out of the risk curve towards higher beta FX (AUD, CNY etc.) and away from the USD.</li></ul>

Take-aways upfront: The USD looks to have broken the clear downtrend from Q3/Q4 last year, but the combination of rising inflation expectations and potential cuts from the Fed allows USD real-rates to diminish compared to peers.The growth/liquidity outlook in the US still looks to outperform the outlook in Europe/Asia, and the implied outperformance of US equities will continue to put downward pressure on the USD from an FX hedging perspective.If we are on the verge of a commodity bull run paired with increased momentum in Asia, markets will likely seek further out of the risk curve towards higher beta FX (AUD, CNY etc.) and away from the USD.

FX Watch: Tough times ahead for king USD?

<ul>
<li>Welcome to our flagship editorial! Is it the year 2021, 2007 or 1995?</li>
<li>These historical analogies are often used in sell-side reports, and we are going to jump the bandwagon with a few semi-fishy analogies today.</li>
<li>I do get some vibes that are reminiscent of melt-up years ahead of crisis years.</li>
</ul>


Welcome to our flagship editorial! Is it the year 2021, 2007 or 1995?
These historical analogies are often used in sell-side reports, and we are going to jump the bandwagon with a few semi-fishy analogies today.
I do get some vibes that are reminiscent of melt-up years ahead of crisis years.


Steno Signals #90 – More Liquidity to the Most Hated Rally in Recent History

<ul><li>Welcome to this week’s edition of our EM-angled editorial, which comes hot on the heels of the PBOC Key Ministry Briefing.</li><li>So, where better to turn first than China?</li><li>Findings in brief: More stimulus for the Chinese economy and markets; Spill-overs to manufacturing/China sensitive geographies and currencies; Both EM (particularly Asian) equity and FX appear cheap.</li></ul>

Welcome to this week’s edition of our EM-angled editorial, which comes hot on the heels of the PBOC Key Ministry Briefing.So, where better to turn first than China?Findings in brief: More stimulus for the Chinese economy and markets; Spill-overs to manufacturing/China sensitive geographies and currencies; Both EM (particularly Asian) equity and FX appear cheap.

EM Stimulus Showdown: From Beijing with Boost to EM?

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Happy Sunday from Copenhagen and welcome to our flagship editorial.</li><li>The cyclical rotation continues in markets, but interest rates have to a certain extent been out of sync with the business cycle for a while.</li><li>The yield curve inverted during the summer of 2022, but we are yet to see a recession in the US economy, which is a bit out of the ordinary given the typical validity of the yield curve inversion signal.</li></ul>

Happy Sunday from Copenhagen and welcome to our flagship editorial.The cyclical rotation continues in markets, but interest rates have to a certain extent been out of sync with the business cycle for a while.The yield curve inverted during the summer of 2022, but we are yet to see a recession in the US economy, which is a bit out of the ordinary given the typical validity of the yield curve inversion signal.

Steno Signals #89: Major Twist to QE Upcoming?

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>Non-commercial (speculative) sentiment favouring the USD moderated slightly in the past week’s data.</li><li>Speculative, aggregate net USD longs edged a little lower in the most recent week’s data to USD832mn, down just under USD600mn from the prior week’s report.</li><li>Additional data showed Real Money (institutional traders) paring aggregate USD shorts by around USD5bn in the week while Leveraged Accounts (hedge funds) cut limited aggregate exposure to the USD long side down from USD2.8bn in the prior week to an all but flat USD400mn. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Non-commercial (speculative) sentiment favouring the USD moderated slightly in the past week’s data.Speculative, aggregate net USD longs edged a little lower in the most recent week’s data to USD832mn, down just under USD600mn from the prior week’s report.Additional data showed Real Money (institutional traders) paring aggregate USD shorts by around USD5bn in the week while Leveraged Accounts (hedge funds) cut limited aggregate exposure to the USD long side down from USD2.8bn in the prior week to an all but flat USD400mn. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Bullish USD Sentiment Moderates

Australia

The Australian dollar is the official currency of the Commonwealth of Australia.

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AUD (USDAUD CURNCY)

FX Watch: Tough times ahead for king USD?

Take-aways upfront: The USD looks to have broken the clear downtrend from Q3/Q4 last year, but the combination of rising inflation expectations...

Steno Research

Steno Signals #90 – More Liquidity to the Most Hated Rally in Recent History

Welcome to our flagship editorial! Is it the year 2021, 2007 or 1995? These historical analogies are often used in sell-side...

Steno Research

EM Stimulus Showdown: From Beijing with Boost to EM?

Welcome to this week’s edition of our EM-angled editorial, which comes hot on the heels of the PBOC Key Ministry Briefing. So, where better to...

Steno Research

Steno Signals #89: Major Twist to QE Upcoming?

Happy Sunday from Copenhagen and welcome to our flagship editorial. The cyclical rotation continues in markets, but interest rates have to a...

Steno Research

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Bullish USD Sentiment Moderates

Waning speculative USD sentiment reflects trends in other indicators suggesting that the improvement in the broad USD tone since the start of the...

Scotiabank

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