Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The speed at which financial market narratives shift nowadays never ceases to amaze us.</li><li>Last quarter saw a notable drop in inflation expectations, but now, we’re observing supply chain disruptions and escalating geopolitical risks pushing oil prices higher, potentially reversing that entire trend.</li><li>The effect of these recent developments on the market and their continued impact on the economy is still unclear.</li></ul>

The speed at which financial market narratives shift nowadays never ceases to amaze us.Last quarter saw a notable drop in inflation expectations, but now, we’re observing supply chain disruptions and escalating geopolitical risks pushing oil prices higher, potentially reversing that entire trend.The effect of these recent developments on the market and their continued impact on the economy is still unclear.

Portfolio Watch: Peak Dovishness & more liquidity?

Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The Aussie Dollar is acting as a delta one to the Chinese Economic data, as the People's Bank of China (PBOC) remains committed to maintaining the stability of the CNY.</li><li>The AUDJPY has formed an intermediate double-top pattern.</li><li>While it is likely to rebound, it could also be influenced by the difference in export growth between ROW with China and Japan.</li></ul>

The Aussie Dollar is acting as a delta one to the Chinese Economic data, as the People's Bank of China (PBOC) remains committed to maintaining the stability of the CNY.The AUDJPY has formed an intermediate double-top pattern.While it is likely to rebound, it could also be influenced by the difference in export growth between ROW with China and Japan.

Part Three: Australian Dollar and AGB Yields

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

<ul><li>We’ll start today’s 5 things with a look at the central bank outlook for in 2024, then we’ll address the troubles for OPEC.</li><li>We move over to talk about China and afterwards Ukraine for some geopolitics.</li><li>Finally, we’ll end this year’s last 5 things with a crypto outlook.</li></ul>

We’ll start today’s 5 things with a look at the central bank outlook for in 2024, then we’ll address the troubles for OPEC.We move over to talk about China and afterwards Ukraine for some geopolitics.Finally, we’ll end this year’s last 5 things with a crypto outlook.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>High beta currencies have done well over the past week.</li><li>A crack in the Fed’s hawkishness at last Wednesday’s FOMC boosted risk appetite and lifted pro-cyclical currencies.</li><li>Top of the pack over the last five trading sessions is the NOK (helped by the jump in Brent around Red Sea focus, for sure), followed by the ZAR, AUD, SEK and NZD.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

High beta currencies have done well over the past week.A crack in the Fed’s hawkishness at last Wednesday’s FOMC boosted risk appetite and lifted pro-cyclical currencies.Top of the pack over the last five trading sessions is the NOK (helped by the jump in Brent around Red Sea focus, for sure), followed by the ZAR, AUD, SEK and NZD.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Snapshot - Stretched Valuation Does Not Preclude More USDCAD Losses

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch following the surprisingly dovish FOMC meeting last Wednesday, which smells of a slight policy mistake given what we have been writing about forward-looking price and wage indicators over the past weeks now starting to tick upwards again.</li><li>Despite a couple of Fed members trying to retrace after the meeting, pushing back on rate-cut expectations, market positioning has turned VERY bullish over the past week, and oh boy has equity markets positioned themselves for a binary outcome.</li><li>The USDs parked at money-market funds have taken the spotlight since the FOMC meeting, as inflows in MMFs have continued despite 3-month T-bill yields reaching what looks to be a top after Powell’s remarks Wednesday.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch following the surprisingly dovish FOMC meeting last Wednesday, which smells of a slight policy mistake given what we have been writing about forward-looking price and wage indicators over the past weeks now starting to tick upwards again.Despite a couple of Fed members trying to retrace after the meeting, pushing back on rate-cut expectations, market positioning has turned VERY bullish over the past week, and oh boy has equity markets positioned themselves for a binary outcome.The USDs parked at money-market funds have taken the spotlight since the FOMC meeting, as inflows in MMFs have continued despite 3-month T-bill yields reaching what looks to be a top after Powell’s remarks Wednesday.

Positioning Watch – Buy everything seems to be consensus

Australia

The Australian dollar is the official currency of the Commonwealth of Australia.

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AUD (USDAUD CURNCY)

Portfolio Watch: Peak Dovishness & more liquidity?

The speed at which financial market narratives shift nowadays never ceases to amaze us. Last quarter saw a notable drop in inflation expectations,...

Steno Research

Part Three: Australian Dollar and AGB Yields

The Aussie Dollar is acting as a delta one to the Chinese Economic data, as the People's Bank of China (PBOC) remains committed to maintaining the...

Untying The Gordian Knot

Five Things We Watch For In 2024

The thing to watch is probably employment numbers and once the labor markets start turning bad, expect CBs to cut in a hurry (especially if it is...

Steno Research

FX Snapshot - Stretched Valuation Does Not Preclude More USDCAD Losses

High beta currencies have done well over the past week. A crack in the Fed’s hawkishness at last Wednesday’s FOMC boosted risk appetite and lifted...

Scotiabank

Positioning Watch – Buy everything seems to be consensus

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch following the surprisingly dovish FOMC meeting last Wednesday, which smells of a...

Steno Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)