Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>We have spent this Sunday evening trying to prepare ourselves for the opening given the turmoil expected in China after Country Gardens (the former largest developer) is to suspend trading of at least 10 onshore bonds after a week where they failed to pay coupons of a couple of international payments.</li>
<li>The Hang Seng Property Index (HSP) is down 20% y-t-d but only lost 0.2% on Friday despite another landslide in the Country Garden stock.</li>
<li>If the HSP Index drops over the coming days, it ought to be taken as a signal that Chinese RE credit will decline further due to a lack of confidence in the financial system.</li>
</ul>


We have spent this Sunday evening trying to prepare ourselves for the opening given the turmoil expected in China after Country Gardens (the former largest developer) is to suspend trading of at least 10 onshore bonds after a week where they failed to pay coupons of a couple of international payments.
The Hang Seng Property Index (HSP) is down 20% y-t-d but only lost 0.2% on Friday despite another landslide in the Country Garden stock.
If the HSP Index drops over the coming days, it ought to be taken as a signal that Chinese RE credit will decline further due to a lack of confidence in the financial system.


Asset Allocation Watch: Country Garden Melt-Down? 5 Charts on Cross-Asset Spill-Overs!

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly Portfolio Watch.</li><li>Here, we delve into the performance of our portfolio and take a close look at the ever-changing landscape of financial markets.</li><li>Our decision to pivot towards energy and other traditional sectors seems to have been well-timed.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly Portfolio Watch.Here, we delve into the performance of our portfolio and take a close look at the ever-changing landscape of financial markets.Our decision to pivot towards energy and other traditional sectors seems to have been well-timed.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Welcome back to our Wednesday series where we take you through the world of global macro and what to look out for going forward.</li>
<li>With US CPI being released tomorrow – where we as always will cover the most important take-aways post-release – there is room for market movements as the disinflation narrative continues amidst the possibility of a positive surprise in headline CPI due to base effects.</li>
<li>We’ll as always be short and concise and let you into our thinking regarding asset allocation and positioning ahead of the data/events mentioned.</li>
</ul>


Welcome back to our Wednesday series where we take you through the world of global macro and what to look out for going forward.
With US CPI being released tomorrow – where we as always will cover the most important take-aways post-release – there is room for market movements as the disinflation narrative continues amidst the possibility of a positive surprise in headline CPI due to base effects.
We’ll as always be short and concise and let you into our thinking regarding asset allocation and positioning ahead of the data/events mentioned.


5 Things We Watch – Fed Overtightening, Curve Steepening, US CPI, BoJ & China

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>FX Market Update —The USD remains firm after yesterday gains.</li><li>US Treasurys remain under pressure following the Fitch news and, perhaps more especially, the US Treasury refunding announcement which highlighted a significant increase in supply over the coming year —even though this would not have been a surprise for the Treasury market.</li><li>Weak Treasurys are weighing on global yields and extending pressure on stocks.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Market Update —The USD remains firm after yesterday gains.US Treasurys remain under pressure following the Fitch news and, perhaps more especially, the US Treasury refunding announcement which highlighted a significant increase in supply over the coming year —even though this would not have been a surprise for the Treasury market.Weak Treasurys are weighing on global yields and extending pressure on stocks.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Supported by Rising Yields

<ul><li>Fitch’s announcement late yesterday that it was cutting the US sovereign credit rating by one notch to AA+ caught the market by surprise.</li><li>The decision was unexpected, even though the agency had put the US on ratings watch negative back in May.</li><li>S&amp;P Global cut its sovereign rating for the US back in 2011 and was widely criticized for the decision then. The Fitch downgrade has also been criticized, with Treasury Sec.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Fitch’s announcement late yesterday that it was cutting the US sovereign credit rating by one notch to AA+ caught the market by surprise.The decision was unexpected, even though the agency had put the US on ratings watch negative back in May.S&amp;P Global cut its sovereign rating for the US back in 2011 and was widely criticized for the decision then. The Fitch downgrade has also been criticized, with Treasury Sec.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Snapshot - Fitch Ratings Cut Not Fatal, but Not Good for the USD

Australia

The Australian dollar is the official currency of the Commonwealth of Australia.

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AUD (USDAUD CURNCY)

Asset Allocation Watch: Country Garden Melt-Down? 5 Charts on Cross-Asset Spill-Overs!

We have spent this Sunday evening trying to prepare ourselves for the opening given the turmoil expected in China after Country Gardens (the former...

Steno Research

Portfolio Watch: Navigating Crossroads

We delve into the performance of our portfolio and take a close look at the ever-changing landscape of financial markets.

Steno Research

5 Things We Watch – Fed Overtightening, Curve Steepening, US CPI, BoJ & China

Welcome back to our Wednesday series where we take you through the world of global macro and what to look out for going forward. With US CPI being...

Steno Research

FX Daily - USD Supported by Rising Yields

FX Market Update —The USD remains firm after yesterday gains. US Treasurys remain under pressure following the Fitch news and, perhaps more...

Scotiabank

FX Snapshot - Fitch Ratings Cut Not Fatal, but Not Good for the USD

Fitch’s announcement late yesterday that it was cutting the US sovereign credit rating by one notch to AA+ caught the market by surprise.

Scotiabank

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