External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>Market Update —The USD is trading firmer overall.</li>
<li>Softer equity markets are casting a broadly risk -averse look to FX markets, although bonds have not benefitted from any flight to quality.</li>
<li>Softer than expected Chinese data is weighing on sentiment.</li>
</ul>
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


Market Update —The USD is trading firmer overall.
Softer equity markets are casting a broadly risk -averse look to FX markets, although bonds have not benefitted from any flight to quality.
Softer than expected Chinese data is weighing on sentiment.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>With the central bank tightening and continuing globally with Fed and ECB hiking rates 25bps and BoJ moving the YCC cap, we have a look at global money trends again today to see if correlations hold and what to expect next in global markets.</li><li>Main take-aways: M1 growth looks outright horrible in the West, while Asian money trends looks very bullishM2 sub-components are still pointing towards more money flowing into more illiquid time-depositsReal M2 is starting to turn positive.</li><li>Could reignite inflation and fuel further economic growth.</li></ul>

With the central bank tightening and continuing globally with Fed and ECB hiking rates 25bps and BoJ moving the YCC cap, we have a look at global money trends again today to see if correlations hold and what to expect next in global markets.Main take-aways: M1 growth looks outright horrible in the West, while Asian money trends looks very bullishM2 sub-components are still pointing towards more money flowing into more illiquid time-depositsReal M2 is starting to turn positive.Could reignite inflation and fuel further economic growth.

<ul><li>The outlook for the economy, rates, fx and other assets apparently never fails to surprise!</li><li>We have thankfully made very decent returns through a tough trading week as some of our cyclical rotations had a tremendous start to the week before taking a minor hit when the change of the yield curve regime in Japan was announced.</li><li>First things first. The decision to move the cap in the 10yr point of the Japanese Government Bond (JGB) curve from 0.5% to 1.0% was a big surprise to many timing-wise. </li></ul>

The outlook for the economy, rates, fx and other assets apparently never fails to surprise!We have thankfully made very decent returns through a tough trading week as some of our cyclical rotations had a tremendous start to the week before taking a minor hit when the change of the yield curve regime in Japan was announced.First things first. The decision to move the cap in the 10yr point of the Japanese Government Bond (JGB) curve from 0.5% to 1.0% was a big surprise to many timing-wise. 

Steno Signals #58 – The One on Banana Republics, Yield Curve Controls and the Yuge EUR Consensus

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Welcome back to our weekly positioning article, where we as always take you through the positioning data that we have found relevant throughout the week.</li>
<li>The central bank week is over, and what a week it has been with the quite shocking decision from BoJ yesterday, moving the YCC upper band from 0.5% to 1%, increasing the flexibility of their monetary policy since they effectively now have more room to play with, and they don’t have to buy as many bonds as they do now to keep yields under control – unless yields rise to &gt;1%.</li>
<li>In the West, the Fed and ECB delivered right as expected with a 25 bps hike each, despite inflation coming down FAST both in the US and EZ – it sure looks like they want to be sure that inflation gets down to target.</li>
</ul>


Welcome back to our weekly positioning article, where we as always take you through the positioning data that we have found relevant throughout the week.
The central bank week is over, and what a week it has been with the quite shocking decision from BoJ yesterday, moving the YCC upper band from 0.5% to 1%, increasing the flexibility of their monetary policy since they effectively now have more room to play with, and they don’t have to buy as many bonds as they do now to keep yields under control – unless yields rise to &gt;1%.
In the West, the Fed and ECB delivered right as expected with a 25 bps hike each, despite inflation coming down FAST both in the US and EZ – it sure looks like they want to be sure that inflation gets down to target.


Positioning Watch – The Market’s Response to Another Fed Hike

<ul><li>FX Market Update —The FOMC decision largely delivered on expectations —a 1/4 point hike and Chairman Powell stressing data dependency on future policy moves.</li><li>September is a “live” meeting by inference but market pricing reflects still low expectations (20% probability) of a hike at the next meeting with a bit less than 50% probability of a move before year end.</li><li>That’s a bit lower than pre -FOMC levels. The shift is hardly decisive but markets are essentially marginally more inclined to feel that the Fed is done with tightening here.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Market Update —The FOMC decision largely delivered on expectations —a 1/4 point hike and Chairman Powell stressing data dependency on future policy moves.September is a “live” meeting by inference but market pricing reflects still low expectations (20% probability) of a hike at the next meeting with a bit less than 50% probability of a move before year end.That’s a bit lower than pre -FOMC levels. The shift is hardly decisive but markets are essentially marginally more inclined to feel that the Fed is done with tightening here.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Softer Ahead of ECB and US GDP, PCE

Australia

The Australian dollar is the official currency of the Commonwealth of Australia.

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AUD (USDAUD CURNCY)

FX Daily - Risk Off Mood Lifts USD

Market Update —The USD is trading firmer overall. Softer equity markets are casting a broadly risk -averse look to FX markets, although bonds have...

Scotiabank

Money Watch – Is money growth BACK?

With the central bank tightening and continuing globally with Fed and ECB hiking rates 25bps and BoJ moving the YCC cap, we have a look at global...

Steno Research

Steno Signals #58 – The One on Banana Republics, Yield Curve Controls and the Yuge EUR Consensus

The outlook for the economy, rates, fx and other assets apparently never fails to surprise! We have thankfully made very decent returns through a...

Steno Research

Positioning Watch – The Market’s Response to Another Fed Hike

Happy Saturday, and welcome back to our weekly positioning article, where we as always take you through the positioning data that we have found...

Steno Research

FX Daily - USD Softer Ahead of ECB and US GDP, PCE

FX Market Update —The FOMC decision largely delivered on expectations —a 1/4 point hike and Chairman Powell stressing data dependency on future...

Scotiabank

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