Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>What the dollar bear market rally means for our themes</li>
<li>The domestic Chinese market starts to rally, outperforming in Asia</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
What the dollar bear market rally means for our themes
The domestic Chinese market starts to rally, outperforming in Asia


Overview #31 - China Breaks Out and the USD Has Its Moment

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The aggregate USD short position narrowed a meaningful $3.2bn in the week ended July 22, achieving its first notable w/w improvement since early June.</li><li>The USD’s $14.3bn aggregate short position is now at the narrower end of its range since mid April, however the aggregate still obscures clear divergences in sentiment across each of the individual reporting currencies.</li><li>The bullish EUR position remains the largest of the net longs at $18.4bn and is roughly twice the size of the next largest bull bet, the $9.1bn JPY net long. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The aggregate USD short position narrowed a meaningful $3.2bn in the week ended July 22, achieving its first notable w/w improvement since early June.The USD’s $14.3bn aggregate short position is now at the narrower end of its range since mid April, however the aggregate still obscures clear divergences in sentiment across each of the individual reporting currencies.The bullish EUR position remains the largest of the net longs at $18.4bn and is roughly twice the size of the next largest bull bet, the $9.1bn JPY net long. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

GBP Net Long Collapses To Flat, Narrowing USD Short In Quiet Week

CFTC Weekly Sentiment Report - GBP Net Long Collapses To Flat...

<ul><li>The aggregate USD short position narrowed a marginal $1.1bn in the week ended July 15, moderating to $17.5bn.</li><li>The position is sizeable however it has remained largely unchanged over the past few months, holding close to the bearish end of its range since 2023 but well shy of the extended levels reached in 2020/2021.</li><li>The largest w/w adjustments were observed in EUR and JPY, maintaining recent trends and delivering a continued build in the bullish EUR position alongside an extension of the softening JPY long.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The aggregate USD short position narrowed a marginal $1.1bn in the week ended July 15, moderating to $17.5bn.The position is sizeable however it has remained largely unchanged over the past few months, holding close to the bearish end of its range since 2023 but well shy of the extended levels reached in 2020/2021.The largest w/w adjustments were observed in EUR and JPY, maintaining recent trends and delivering a continued build in the bullish EUR position alongside an extension of the softening JPY long.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bullish EUR Position Extends Climb As JPY Long Continues To Fall

<ul><li>The aggregate USD short position was largely unchanged in the week ended July 8, widening a marginal $0.3bn to $18.6bn.</li><li>The position is sizeable and remains close to the bearish end of the range since 2023, however it is still well shy of the extended levels reached in 2020/2021.</li><li>This week’s adjustments offered a continued divergence in EUR and JPY positioning as speculators added to their large bullish EUR positions while paring back their JPY longs. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The aggregate USD short position was largely unchanged in the week ended July 8, widening a marginal $0.3bn to $18.6bn.The position is sizeable and remains close to the bearish end of the range since 2023, however it is still well shy of the extended levels reached in 2020/2021.This week’s adjustments offered a continued divergence in EUR and JPY positioning as speculators added to their large bullish EUR positions while paring back their JPY longs. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CFTC Weekly Sentiment Report - EUR Bulls Push Long To Fresh High

Australia

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AUD (USDAUD CURNCY)

Overview #31 - China Breaks Out and the USD Has Its Moment

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the Dollar bear market rally and the domestic Chinese market.

Rikki Malik

GBP Net Long Collapses To Flat, Narrowing USD Short In Quiet Week

The aggregate USD short position narrowed a meaningful $3.2bn in the week ended July 22, achieving its first notable w/w improvement since early June.

Scotiabank

CFTC Weekly Sentiment Report - GBP Net Long Collapses To Flat...

The aggregate USD short position narrowed a meaningful $3.2bn in the week ended July 22, achieving its first notable w/w improvement since early June.

Scotiabank

Bullish EUR Position Extends Climb As JPY Long Continues To Fall

The position is sizeable however it has remained largely unchanged over the past few months, holding close to the bearish end of its range since...

Scotiabank

CFTC Weekly Sentiment Report - EUR Bulls Push Long To Fresh High

This week’s adjustments offered a continued divergence in EUR and JPY positioning as speculators added to their large bullish EUR positions while...

Scotiabank

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Market Cap (USDm)

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