External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The aggregate USD short position narrowed $1.8bn in the week ended July 1, softening modestly to $18.3bn.</li><li>The bearish position is at the wider end of its multiyear range, but still well shy of the extended levels reached in 2020/2021.</li><li>Individual currency positioning adjustments were modest overall, favoring the USD while the AUD and NZD positions were left unchanged. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The aggregate USD short position narrowed $1.8bn in the week ended July 1, softening modestly to $18.3bn.The bearish position is at the wider end of its multiyear range, but still well shy of the extended levels reached in 2020/2021.Individual currency positioning adjustments were modest overall, favoring the USD while the AUD and NZD positions were left unchanged. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CFTC Weekly Sentiment Report - Aggregate Bearish USD Position Holds Steady In Holiday Week

<ul><li>The aggregate USD short position widened $1.7bn in the week ended June 24, reaching $20.1bn.</li><li>The bearish position has already reached fresh local wides (lows) and is threatening the wides briefly tested in mid-2023.</li><li>This week’s adjustments were relatively minor, with notable w/w improvements in EUR (long build) and CAD (short reduction) and a minor deterioration in the GBP (long reduction).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The aggregate USD short position widened $1.7bn in the week ended June 24, reaching $20.1bn.The bearish position has already reached fresh local wides (lows) and is threatening the wides briefly tested in mid-2023.This week’s adjustments were relatively minor, with notable w/w improvements in EUR (long build) and CAD (short reduction) and a minor deterioration in the GBP (long reduction).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CFTC Weekly Sentiment Report - Bearish USD Bet Continues to Build

<ul><li>The aggregate USD position widened $2.6bn in the week ended June 17, reaching $18.5bn and a level that marginally exceeded last year’s wides.</li><li>The June 17 position date incorporated the latest BoJ policy decision and the most recent US CPI report.</li><li>The largest w/w swing was observed for the CAD, with notable improvements in EUR and NZD as well. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The aggregate USD position widened $2.6bn in the week ended June 17, reaching $18.5bn and a level that marginally exceeded last year’s wides.The June 17 position date incorporated the latest BoJ policy decision and the most recent US CPI report.The largest w/w swing was observed for the CAD, with notable improvements in EUR and NZD as well. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bearish CAD Position Narrows As Aggregate USD Short Builds

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Over the weekend, oil traders dusted off their Strait of Hormuz crisis playbooks—and once again, they overplayed their hand.</li><li>Saturday’s U.S. strike inside Iran sparked a sharp wave of geopolitical anxiety, turbocharged by Iran’s retaliatory missile barrage and the familiar threat from Tehran’s Parliament to shut down the Strait.</li><li>Add a few “Hormuz closed?” headlines and prediction markets went into meltdown, briefly treating a full blockade as the base case.</li></ul>

Over the weekend, oil traders dusted off their Strait of Hormuz crisis playbooks—and once again, they overplayed their hand.Saturday’s U.S. strike inside Iran sparked a sharp wave of geopolitical anxiety, turbocharged by Iran’s retaliatory missile barrage and the familiar threat from Tehran’s Parliament to shut down the Strait.Add a few “Hormuz closed?” headlines and prediction markets went into meltdown, briefly treating a full blockade as the base case.

Steno Signals #202 – Peak WW3 Fears Return!

<ul><li>The aggregate bearish USD position widened a meaningful $3.7bn w/w to $15.9bn, pushing back toward the extended bearish levels observed in late April and early May.</li><li>The renewed deterioration in USD sentiment reflected market participants’ positioning in the aftermath of the payrolls disappointment but did not capture the CPI disappointment released after the June 10 reporting date.</li><li>The w/w deterioration was driven by positive adjustments to the EUR, GBP, and CAD positions, along with a modestly positive adjustment for CHF as well.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The aggregate bearish USD position widened a meaningful $3.7bn w/w to $15.9bn, pushing back toward the extended bearish levels observed in late April and early May.The renewed deterioration in USD sentiment reflected market participants’ positioning in the aftermath of the payrolls disappointment but did not capture the CPI disappointment released after the June 10 reporting date.The w/w deterioration was driven by positive adjustments to the EUR, GBP, and CAD positions, along with a modestly positive adjustment for CHF as well.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CFTC Weekly Sentiment Report - EUR Overtakes JPY as Largest Held Net Long; CAD Short Narrows

Australia

The Australian dollar is the official currency of the Commonwealth of Australia.

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AUD (USDAUD CURNCY)

CFTC Weekly Sentiment Report - Aggregate Bearish USD Position Holds Steady In Holiday Week

The bearish position is at the wider end of its multiyear range, but still well shy of the extended levels reached in 2020/2021.

Scotiabank

CFTC Weekly Sentiment Report - Bearish USD Bet Continues to Build

This week’s adjustments were relatively minor, with notable w/w improvements in EUR (long build) and CAD (short reduction) and a minor...

Scotiabank

Bearish CAD Position Narrows As Aggregate USD Short Builds

The aggregate USD position widened $2.6bn in the week ended June 17, reaching $18.5bn and a level that marginally exceeded last year’s wides.

Scotiabank

Steno Signals #202 – Peak WW3 Fears Return!

Over the weekend, oil traders dusted off their Strait of Hormuz crisis playbooks—and once again, they overplayed their hand. Saturday’s U.S....

Steno Research

CFTC Weekly Sentiment Report - EUR Overtakes JPY as Largest Held Net Long; CAD Short Narrows

The aggregate bearish USD position widened a meaningful $3.7bn w/w to $15.9bn, pushing back toward the extended bearish levels observed in late...

Scotiabank

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